My poorly thought through, armchair CEO twitter stats if it was a paid service
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so, this tweet here started it
https://twitter.com/benhammersley/status/739820492106801152
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then I did tweeted this
https://twitter.com/mrchrisadams/status/739935626116628481
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I couldn't find the numbers online, so I had a go myself.
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twitters revenue for 2015 in millions
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(from this deck, page 6 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-2F526X/2192913368x0x874450/36429F80-3FCD-46FF-8AFF-232AE9B6CEDD/2015_Q4_Earnings_Slides.pdf)
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q1436
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q2502
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q3569
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q4710
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total2217
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twitter's monthly active users in millions
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(from the same deck, page 4)
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q1308
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q2316
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q3320
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q4320
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lets go with this figure, to keep it simple320
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I'm making it up as I go along here… feel free to copy this with better thought through numbers than me. Do please let me know though (@mrchrisadams, or chris@productscience.co.uk)
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If you wanted twitter ad free, lets assume you need to make at least as much revenue back as the ad model, otherwise the owners would just stay with the existing set up. It's already made an IPO, so the main driver now, whether we like it or not, is whether the company makes more money for shareholders.
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annual rev, over monthy active users might give us the number needed per user$6.93
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So each user would need to pay 7 USD to make the same revenue?
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Of the 320m, not all are prepared to pay (most aren't). for simplicity lets pick a number given from Quora of 3% for people prepared to pay. Using numbers from Quora seemed fitting, for this back of a fag packet sketch, so lets have it in its cell to play with
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https://www.quora.com/What-is-a-typical-conversion-ratio-for-a-B2B-SaaS-business-from-free-to-paying-users?share=1
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conversion rate0.03
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So, 3% of 320m9.6
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How much would these paying customers need to pay, to make the same revenue numbers? Let's assume the paid people subsidise the free people.
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That yearly revenue number, divided by the paid users, might give us some idea of how much the paid users would need to pay each year to make the revenue numbers.$230.94
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Hmm. I'm not sure this would work. Maybe if you still had ads for the free users. I don't have the attention span to try modelling that (not my circus, not my monkey) but hopefully this been interesting to not just me.
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