Monopoly Politics 2018 - Reformatted
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Monopoly Politics 2018
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You can use this spreadsheet to project the partisan result of the 2018 election for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

Our projections are based on only a few pieces of information:
· Partisanship - This is how much the district favors Republicans or Democrats, all else being equal. It is the most important piece of information.
· Incumbent Modifier - This combines two things: the "incumbency bump," which is how much voters are biased in favor of voting for incumbents overall (which varies year to year from about 3% to about 7%); and the incumbent's "performance over average candidate" or "POAC," which is how much better or worse the incumbent has done than would have been projected in prior elections. In an open seat, there is no incumbent, and so there is no incumbent modifier.
· National Two-Party Preference - This is how much the nation as a whole leans toward either major political party. Anything within 47% to 53% is a normal year, while anything outside of that range is a wave year for one of the two major parties.

For more information, see the Methodology tab at the bottom.
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Our High Confidence Projections2018 High Confidence Projections
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Our high confidence projections have been 99.9% accurate over three election cycles.
For 2018, we project 379 seats (87.1% of seats).
We make high confidence projections based on only two criteria:
· In a 50-50 year with a low incumbency bump, we would project the seat to be won by at least a 12 point margin;
· The incumbent (if there is one) won in 2016 with at least 52% of the two-party vote and does not represent a district that favors the opposite party.
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Full Projections2018 Full Projections
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Our full projections for all 435 seats depend on the nature of the year.
Answer the two questions below to generate full projections.
RepublicanDemocrat
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Safe Seats
These are 99.9% accurate
153183
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How much will 2018 favor Incumbents?How much will
2018 favor
Favored Seats
These are 89.3% accurate
4114
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Democrats?
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3.00%0.54Toss Up Seats
These are 66.7% accurate
2420
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Total218217
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Default is 3.30%Default is 50.0%
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2018 Full Projections and Data, District-by-District
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Below are the full projections, as well as the data for each district used to generate them, for each of the 435 districts.
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DistrictIncumbentDistrict PartisanshipIncumbent ModifierProjected Result in a Year Favoring Democrats by 54%FairVote High Confidence Projections
District # (Hidden)
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AL-1Bradley Byrne (R)R + 15.8%
(Strong R)
2.0%Republican
with 63.8% (Safe R)
Projected R1
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AL-2Martha Roby (R)R + 17.0%
(Strong R)
-6.8%Republican
with 56.2% (Safe R)
Projected R2
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AL-3Mike Rogers (R)R + 17.6%
(Strong R)
-0.7%Republican
with 62.8% (Safe R)
Projected R3
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AL-4Robert Aderholt (R)R + 32.6%
(Strong R)
-2.4%Republican
with 76.2% (Safe R)
Projected R4
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AL-5Mo Brooks (R)R + 17.8%
(Strong R)
-1.3%Republican
with 62.4% (Safe R)
Projected R5
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AL-6Gary Palmer (R)R + 23.4%
(Strong R)
0.4%Republican
with 69.8% (Safe R)
Projected R6
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AL-7Terri Sewell (D)D + 19.6%
(Strong D)
1.5%Democrat
with 75.0% (Safe D)
Projected D7
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AK-ALDon Young (R)R + 8.7%
(Strong R)
0.3%Republican
with 55.0% (R Favored)
Projected R8
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AZ-1Tom O'Halleran (D)R + 1.6%
(Swing)
1.3%Democrat
with 53.7% (D Favored)
No Projection9
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AZ-2Open Seat
(Martha McSally (R))
D + 1.4%
(Swing)
N/ADemocrat
with 55.4% (D Favored)
No Projection10
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AZ-3Raul Grijalva (D)D + 13.9%
(Strong D)
-2.2%Democrat
with 65.7% (Safe D)
Projected D11
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AZ-4Paul Gosar (R)R + 21.2%
(Strong R)
0.1%Republican
with 67.2% (Safe R)
Projected R12
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AZ-5Andy Biggs (R)R + 11.6%
(Strong R)
0.7%Republican
with 58.3% (Safe R)
Projected R13
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AZ-6David Schweikert (R)R + 6.1%
(Strong R)
3.3%Republican
with 55.4% (R Favored)
Projected R14
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AZ-7Ruben Gallego (D)D + 23.6%
(Strong D)
1.6%Democrat
with 79.2% (Safe D)
Projected D15
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AZ-8Debbie Lesko (R)R + 11.6%
(Strong R)
0.5%Republican
with 58.1% (Safe R)
Projected R16
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AZ-9Open Seat
(Kyrsten Sinema (D))
D + 7.1%
(Strong D)
N/ADemocrat
with 61.1% (Safe D)
Projected D17
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AR-1Rick Crawford (R)R + 18.5%
(Strong R)
-2.0%Republican
with 62.5% (Safe R)
Projected R18
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AR-2J. French Hill (R)R + 6.4%
(Strong R)
2.1%Republican
with 54.5% (R Favored)
Projected R19
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AR-3Steve Womack (R)R + 16.7%
(Strong R)
2.6%Republican
with 65.2% (Safe R)
Projected R20
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AR-4Bruce Westerman (R)R + 17.5%
(Strong R)
-6.8%Republican
with 56.7% (Safe R)
Projected R21
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CA-1Doug La Malfa (R)R + 10.9%
(Strong R)
-1.1%Republican
with 55.8% (R Favored)
Projected R22
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CA-2Jared Huffman (D)D + 21.8%
(Strong D)
4.6%Democrat
with 80.4% (Safe D)
Projected D23
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CA-3John Garamendi (D)D + 5.3%
(Slight D)
1.9%Democrat
with 61.2% (Safe D)
Projected D24
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CA-4Tom McClintock (R)R + 8.4%
(Strong R)
2.3%Republican
with 56.7% (Safe R)
Projected R25
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CA-5Mike Thompson (D)D + 21.4%
(Strong D)
4.0%Democrat
with 79.4% (Safe D)
Projected D26
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CA-6Doris Matsui (D)D + 21.4%
(Strong D)
3.8%Democrat
with 79.2% (Safe D)
Projected D27
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CA-7Ami Bera (D)D + 4.7%
(Slight D)
0.0%Democrat
with 58.6% (Safe D)
No Projection28
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CA-8Paul Cook (R)R + 8.6%
(Strong R)
3.3%Republican
with 57.9% (Safe R)
Projected R29
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CA-9Jerry McNerney (D)D + 8.3%
(Strong D)
-1.6%Democrat
with 60.7% (Safe D)
Projected D30
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CA-10Jeff Denham (R)D + 0.4%
(Swing)
1.9%Democrat
with 52.5% (Toss-Up)
No Projection31
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CA-11Mark DeSaulnier (D)D + 23.4%
(Strong D)
0.4%Democrat
with 77.8% (Safe D)
Projected D32
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CA-12Nancy Pelosi (D)D + 37.7%
(Strong D)
-0.3%Democrat
with 91.4% (Safe D)
Projected D33
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CA-13Barbara Lee (D)D + 39.3%
(Strong D)
1.8%Democrat
with 95.1% (Safe D)
Projected D34
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CA-14Jackie Speier (D)D + 28.3%
(Strong D)
2.7%Democrat
with 85.0% (Safe D)
Projected D35
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CA-15Eric Swalwell (D)D + 21.8%
(Strong D)
2.4%Democrat
with 78.2% (Safe D)
Projected D36
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CA-16Jim Costa (D)D + 9.8%
(Strong D)
-2.2%Democrat
with 61.5% (Safe D)
Projected D37
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CA-17Ro Khanna (D)D + 25.7%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 80.1% (Safe D)
Projected D38
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CA-18Anna Eshoo (D)D + 25.6%
(Strong D)
-1.9%Democrat
with 77.7% (Safe D)
Projected D39
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CA-19Zoe Lofgren (D)D + 24.7%
(Strong D)
-0.4%Democrat
with 78.2% (Safe D)
Projected D40
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CA-20Jimmy Panetta (D)D + 22.6%
(Strong D)
0.3%Democrat
with 76.8% (Safe D)
Projected D41
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CA-21David Valadao (R)D + 6.7%
(Strong D)
10.9%Republican
with 50.2% (Toss-Up)
No Projection42
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CA-22Devin Nunes (R)R + 5.8%
(Slight R)
7.9%Republican
with 59.7% (Safe R)
Projected R43
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CA-23Kevin McCarthy (R)R + 12.1%
(Strong R)
5.8%Republican
with 63.9% (Safe R)
Projected R44
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CA-24Salud Carbajal (D)D + 9.1%
(Strong D)
-0.3%Democrat
with 62.7% (Safe D)
Projected D45
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CA-25Steve Knight (R)D + 2.3%
(Swing)
3.9%Democrat
with 52.4% (Toss-Up)
No Projection46
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CA-26Julia Brownley (D)D + 9.9%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 64.4% (Safe D)
Projected D47
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CA-27Judy Chu (D)D + 17.8%
(Strong D)
-0.3%Democrat
with 71.4% (Safe D)
Projected D48
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CA-28Adam Schiff (D)D + 23.9%
(Strong D)
3.4%Democrat
with 81.3% (Safe D)
Projected D49
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CA-29Tony Cardenas (D)D + 29.4%
(Strong D)
0.4%Democrat
with 83.8% (Safe D)
Projected D50
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CA-30Brad Sherman (D)D + 20.7%
(Strong D)
2.1%Democrat
with 76.7% (Safe D)
Projected D51
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CA-31Pete Aguilar (D)D + 9.5%
(Strong D)
-2.0%Democrat
with 61.5% (Safe D)
Projected D52
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CA-32Grace Napolitano (D)D + 18.4%
(Strong D)
-2.0%Democrat
with 70.4% (Safe D)
Projected D53
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CA-33Ted Lieu (D)D + 19.6%
(Strong D)
-1.0%Democrat
with 72.6% (Safe D)
Projected D54
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CA-34Jimmy Gomez (D)D + 35.4%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 89.9% (Safe D)
Projected D55
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CA-35Norma Torres (D)D + 19.4%
(Strong D)
2.8%Democrat
with 76.1% (Safe D)
Projected D56
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CA-36Raul Ruiz (D)D + 3.4%
(Slight D)
7.2%Democrat
with 64.5% (Safe D)
Projected D57
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CA-37Karen Bass (D)D + 37.0%
(Strong D)
0.4%Democrat
with 91.4% (Safe D)
Projected D58
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CA-38Linda Sanchez (D)D + 18.8%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 73.3% (Safe D)
Projected D59
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CA-39Open Seat
(Ed Royce (R))
D + 3.3%
(Slight D)
N/ADemocrat
with 57.3% (Safe D)
No Projection60
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CA-40Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)D + 33.7%
(Strong D)
2.6%Democrat
with 90.2% (Safe D)
Projected D61
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CA-41Mark Takano (D)D + 12.9%
(Strong D)
0.7%Democrat
with 67.6% (Safe D)
Projected D62
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CA-42Ken Calvert (R)R + 7.1%
(Strong R)
1.5%Republican
with 54.6% (R Favored)
Projected R63
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CA-43Maxine Waters (D)D + 29.8%
(Strong D)
-3.1%Democrat
with 80.7% (Safe D)
Projected D64
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CA-44Nanette Diaz Barragan (D)D + 34.3%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 88.8% (Safe D)
Projected D65
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CA-45Mimi Walters (R)D + 1.7%
(Swing)
7.8%Republican
with 52.1% (Toss-Up)
No Projection66
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CA-46Lou Correa (D)D + 18.2%
(Strong D)
0.5%Democrat
with 72.6% (Safe D)
Projected D67
88
CA-47Alan Lowenthal (D)D + 14.8%
(Strong D)
-0.9%Democrat
with 67.8% (Safe D)
Projected D68
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CA-48Dana Rohrabacher (R)R + 0.2%
(Swing)
5.1%Republican
with 51.3% (Toss-Up)
No Projection69
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CA-49Open Seat
(Darrell Issa (R))
D + 2.7%
(Swing)
N/ADemocrat
with 56.7% (Safe D)
No Projection70
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CA-50Duncan Hunter (R)R + 8.6%
(Strong R)
4.0%Republican
with 58.5% (Safe R)
Projected R71
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CA-51Juan Vargas (D)D + 23.5%
(Strong D)
0.9%Democrat
with 78.4% (Safe D)
Projected D72
93
CA-52Scott Peters (D)D + 10.2%
(Strong D)
-0.4%Democrat
with 63.8% (Safe D)
Projected D73
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CA-53Susan Davis (D)D + 16.4%
(Strong D)
0.1%Democrat
with 70.5% (Safe D)
Projected D74
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CO-1Diana DeGette (D)D + 21.9%
(Strong D)
0.3%Democrat
with 76.1% (Safe D)
Projected D75
96
CO-2Open Seat
(Jared Polis (D))
D + 9.6%
(Strong D)
N/ADemocrat
with 63.6% (Safe D)
Projected D76
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CO-3Scott Tipton (R)R + 7.1%
(Strong R)
1.1%Republican
with 54.1% (R Favored)
Projected R77
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CO-4Ken Buck (R)R + 12.6%
(Strong R)
3.9%Republican
with 62.5% (Safe R)
Projected R78
99
CO-5Doug Lamborn (R)R + 13.1%
(Strong R)
1.0%Republican
with 60.1% (Safe R)
Projected R79
100
CO-6Mike Coffman (R)D + 3.4%
(Slight D)
4.6%Democrat
with 52.8% (Toss-Up)
No Projection80
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