ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVW
1
HMSP
2
BI-7DRRR5.00%
3
Current PriceData Manual -->Rp2,220
4
EPS (9M2019)Data Manual -->Rp87.00
5
EPS (Annualized)
Data Manual -->Rp116.00
6
SharesData Manual -->116,320,000,000
7
Equity attributable to parent (LK 9M2019)
Data Manual -->Rp35,358,000,000,000
8
Current PERData Manual -->19.60
9
10
STEP 1 - Hitung Initial Rate of Return
11
Initial rate of returnEPS (Annualized)/Current Price5.23%
12
StatusIF(B12>B1;"Pass";"Not Pass")Pass
13
14
STEP 2 - Hitung percentage average ROE after payout (min 5 years)
15
16
Average ROE (5 Years)AVERAGE(B15:B19)44%
17
ROE 2014Data Manual -->75.43%
18
ROE 2015Data Manual -->32.37%
19
ROE 2016Data Manual -->37.34%
20
ROE 2017Data Manual -->37.14%
21
ROE 2018Data Manual -->38.29%
22
23
Average DPR (5 Years)AVERAGE(B22:B26)99%
24
DPR 2014Data Manual -->104%
25
DPR 2015Data Manual -->118%
26
DPR 2016Data Manual -->81%
27
DPR 2017Data Manual -->99%
28
DPR 2018Data Manual -->92%
29
30
Percentage average ROE after payoutAvg ROE (5 Years) x (1-Avg DPR (5 Years))0.46%
31
32
STEP 3 - Buat proyeksi equity/share untuk 5 tahun kedepan
33
34
Equity / ShareB8/B7Rp303.97
35
36
Future Equity per share after 5 yearsB33 x (1+B29) ^ Jumlah TahunRp311
37
38
STEP 4 - Konversikan proyeksi equity/share menjadi future EPS
39
40
Future EPSB35 x B17Rp137
41
42
STEP 5 - Hitung future stock price
43
44
Average PER 5 yearsAVERAGE(B46:B50) 36.39
45
PER 2014Data Manual --> 29.55
46
PER 2015Data Manual -->42.2
47
PER 2016Data Manual -->34.91
48
PER 2017Data Manual -->43.42
49
PER 2018Data Manual -->31.86
50
51
Future Stock Price
IF(B45="";(B41*B9);IF(B9<B45;(B41*B9);(B41*B45)))
Rp2,690
52
53
STEP 6 - Hitung future stock price plus dividen
54
55
Growth EPSPOWER((B41/B6);(1/5))-13.42%
56
57
Future EPS 5 yearsB6*(1+B56)^5Rp137.22
58
59
Total EPS 5 yearssum(B61:B65)Rp642
60
EPS 2019Data Otomatis-->Rp120
61
EPS 2020Data Otomatis-->Rp124
62
EPS 2021Data Otomatis-->Rp128
63
EPS 2022Data Otomatis-->Rp133
64
EPS 2023Data Otomatis-->Rp137
65
66
Total Dividen (5 years)B60 x B24Rp636
67
68
Future stock priceB52Rp2,690
69
Future stock price + dividenB69+B70
Rp3,325
70
71
STEP 7 - Hitung expected rate return from menggunakan average ROE
72
73
Expected Rate of Return ROEPOWER((B70/B4);(1/5))-18.41%
74
75
Future stock priceRp3,325
76
77
PILIH - BEST CASETarget ROE minimum 15%1653
78
PILIHTarget ROE minimum 12%1886
79
UNQUALIFIEDUNQUALIFIED
80
81
STEP 8 - Hitung nilai wajar saham
82
83
Expected rate return ROE minimum12%
84
Limit Buy at 1,886.71
85
Discount level Current Price with limit buy-18%
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100