Monopoly Politics 2014
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How to use the Monopoly Politics 2014 Spreadsheet
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This spreadsheet provides data and projections for all 435 congressional races in the 2014 midterm elections.
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The complete projections themselves can be found in the "Projections" tab, a summary of the projections can be found in the "Summary Charts" tab, a full explanation of the methodology behind the projections behind the projections can be found in the "Projections Methodology" tab, and the election result data used in this analysis can be found in the "Raw Data" tab.
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The "Projections" tab contains several useful features, including:
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1. FairVote's official projections by party for the 374 seats that we are projecting (in the yellow box, with accompanying pie chart)
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2. Competitiveness ratings and partisan lean for all 435 seats, including those not officially projected (in the red/blue box)
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3. Party projections if every seat were an open seat race (in the green box)
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4. Ability to manually change the overall partisan tilt of the year and the average incumbency bump of the year, which will alter the projections.
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5. Projections for each individual district and incumbent, in terms of projected Democratic vote percentage, FairVote official projection, and competitiveness rating (in orange and party-color-coded columns H, I, and J)
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6. Partisanship rating (how the district voted for president relative to the candidates' national averages in 2012) of each district
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7. "Candidate influence" for each incumbent in the last two elections. This number shows whether the quality of the candidate influenced voters to vote for them at a higher or lower rate than the district's partisanship would suggest. Democratic candidates are strong when they have positive candidate influences, while Republican candidates are strong when they have negative candidate influences.
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Explanation of manual tools:
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As mentioned in feature #4, the Projections tab allows the user to manually input data into the two gray cells (A2 and B2).
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Cell A2 allows the user to simulate projections based on any possible nationwide partisan tilt in the 2014 elections. For example, if you anticipate a 4% Democratic advantage in 2014, you would input "54%" into A2. If you anticipate a 4% Republican advantage in 2014, you would input "46%."
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Cell B2 allows the user to simulate any possible nationwide sentiment toward incumbents in general. The default incumbency advantage is 4.5% as that is the "bump" over 50% that they received on average in 2012. If you think 2014 will be an unusually anti-incumbent year, you could input "1%" into B2, and see the likely effects on each race. If you think 2014 will be an incumbent-favoring year, you could input 7% into B2.
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These are preliminary projections, and we may make changes to this spreadsheet before the final Monopoly Politics 2014 report is released. If you have any comments or questions on the spreadsheet, please contact Devin McCarthy at dmccarthy@fairvote.org
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Spreadsheet Guide
Summary Charts
Projections
Projection Methodology
Raw Data