Growth modelling of COVID-19 cases outside China

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5	THIS IS THE BEST PLACE FOR THESE KINDS OF GRAPHS AND FORECASTS NOW: https://avatorl.org/covid-19/
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13	Data source	https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv				First parameter	64.9								83.4
14	Data last updated	Sun 16 March 11am GMT				Second parameter	0.163								0.158
15	N.B. To get true figures, accounting for the many cases that go untested and unconfirmed, multiply figures by 10x or more.
16	To play with this just File --> Make a copy					Doubling time for total cases to date	4.25								4.387007472
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18					Older actual figures, not used for model		New actual figures, used to forecast		Projections 21 March		Projections 16 March		Projections 15 March		Projections 14 March		Projections 11 March		Projections 10 March		Projections 9 March		Projections 8 March		Projections 7 March		Projections 6 March		Projections 5 March		Projections 3 March
19			Date	Day after 1/2/2020	New that day (old)	Sum to date (old)	New that day (new)	Sum to date (new)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)	New that day (forecast)	Sum to date (forecast)
20			1/2/2020	1	23	167
21			2/2/2020	2	13	180
22			3/2/2020	3	8	188
23			4/2/2020	4	24	212
24			5/2/2020	5	15	227
25			6/2/2020	6	38	265
26			7/2/2020	7	52	317
27			8/2/2020	8	26	343
28			9/2/2020	9	18	361
29			10/2/2020	10	96	457
30			11/2/2020	11	19	476
31			12/2/2020	12	47	523
32			13/2/2020	13	15	538
33			14/2/2020	14	57	595
34			15/2/2020	15	90	685
35			16/2/2020	16	95	780
36			17/2/2020	17	116	896
37			18/2/2020	18	103	999
38			19/2/2020	19	96	1,095
39			20/2/2020	20	105	1,200
40			21/2/2020	21	171	1,371
41			22/2/2020	22	306	1,677
42			23/2/2020	23	370	2,047
43			24/2/2020	24	371	2,418
44			25/2/2020	25	337	2,755
45			26/2/2020	26	577	3,332
46			27/2/2020	27	926	4,258
47			28/2/2020	28	1,040	5,298
48			29/2/2020	29	6,762	6,762
49			1/3/2020	30	1,783	8,545																										6,657
50			2/3/2020	31	1,738	10,283																									3,175	9,833
51			3/3/2020	32	2,409	12,692																								8,580	2,117	11,950
52			4/3/2020	33	2,160	14,852																							2,037	10,617	2,573	14,522
53			5/3/2020	34	2,160	17,463																						18,114	9,498	20,115	3,127	17,649
54			6/3/2020	35	3,763	21,226																				21,708	4,033	22,146	4,775	24,890	3,800	21,449
55			7/3/2020	36	3,957	25,183																		26,327	4,780	26,487	4,930	27,076	5,909	30,799	4,618	26,068
56			8/3/2020	37	3,913	29,096																30,737	5,701	32,028	5,832	32,319	6,028	33,104	7,311	38,110	5,613	31,680
57			9/3/2020	38			3,731	32,827												35,333	6,432	37,169	6,935	38,963	7,116	39,436	7,370	40,474	9,047	47,157	6,821	38,502
58			10/3/2020	39			4,141	36,968										40,161	7,011	42,343	7,777	44,946	8,437	47,399	8,683	48,119	9,011	49,484	11,194	58,351	8,290	46,791
59			11/3/2020	40			7,189	44,157									7,299	47,461	8,402	50,745	9,405	54,351	10,263	57,663	10,595	58,713	11,016	60,501	13,852	72,202	10,075	56,866
60			12/3/2020	41			2,464	46,621									8,626	56,087	10,069	60,814	11,373	65,724	12,486	70,148	12,928	71,641	13,469	73,970
61			13/3/2020	42			16,790	63,411								63,554	10,194	66,281	12,066	72,880	13,753	79,477	15,189	85,337	15,774	87,415	16,468	90,438
62			14/3/2020	43			11,689	75,100						73,603	10,878	74,433	12,047	78,328	14,460	87,340	16,630	96,107	18,478	103,815	19,247	106,662	20,134	110,571
63			15/3/2020	44			6,600	81,700				84,921	12,685	86,288	12,740	87,173	14,236	92,564	17,330	104,670	20,110	116,217	22,479	126,294	23,485	130,148
64			16/3/2020	45			18,800	100,500			14,436	99,357	14,871	101,159	14,921	102,094	16,824	109,388	20,768	125,438	24,318	140,536	27,346	153,640
65			17/3/2020	46			15,600	116,100			16,890	116,247	17,434	118,592	17,475	119,569	19,882	129,270	24,889	150,327	29,407	169,943
66			18/3/2020	47			17,700	133,800			19,762	136,009	20,438	139,030	20,466	140,035	23,495	152,765	29,827	180,154
67			19/3/2020	48			27,800	161,600			23,121	159,130	23,960	162,991	23,969	164,004	27,766	180,531
68			20/3/2020	49			29,300	190,900		190,965	27,051	186,181	28,089	191,080	28,072	192,076
69			21/3/2020	50					33,808	224,773	31,650	217,831	32,930	224,010	32,877	224,953
70			22/3/2020	51					39,793	264,566	37,030	254,861	38,605	262,616	38,504	263,458
71			23/3/2020	52					46,838	311,404	43,325	298,186	45,259	307,875	45,095	308,553
72			24/3/2020	53					55,130	366,534	50,690	348,877	53,058	360,933
73			25/3/2020	54					64,890	431,424	59,308	408,184	62,202	423,136
74			26/3/2020	55					76,378	507,802	69,390	477,574	72,922	496,058
75			27/3/2020	56					89,900	597,702	81,185	558,759
76			28/3/2020	57					105,815	703,517
77			29/3/2020	58					124,548	828,066
78			30/3/2020	59					146,598	974,664
79			31/3/2020	60					172,551	1,147,215
80			1/4/2020	61					203,099	1,350,314
81			2/4/2020	62
82			3/4/2020	63
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