Hinge of History Hypothesis

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J
1	Century Number	Probability of Extinction in Century X Conditional on Surviving to Century X	Probability that Civilization Goes Extinct in Century X	Probability that Civilization will have Gone Extinct by End of Century X	Probability that Civilization Survives through Century X	Prior Probability that Hingiest Century is Century 1 Conditional on Civilization Going Extinct in Century X	(Probability that Civilization Goes Extinct in Century X) * (Prior Probability that Hingiest Century is Century 1 Conditional on Civilization Going Extinct in Century X)	Prior Probability that Hingiest Century is Century X	(Sanity Check) Prior Probability that Hingiest Century is in Century 1-X	(Sanity Check) Prior Probability that Hingiest Century is Century 1-1000

2	1	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.99	1	0.01	0.04651683104	0.04651683104	0.9999568288
3	2	0.01	0.0099	0.0199	0.9801	0.5	0.00495	0.03651683104	0.08303366208
4	3	0.01	0.009801	0.029701	0.970299	0.3333333333	0.003267	0.03156683104	0.1146004931
5	4	0.01	0.00970299	0.03940399	0.96059601	0.25	0.0024257475	0.02829983104	0.1429003242
6	5	0.01	0.0096059601	0.0490099501	0.9509900499	0.2	0.00192119202	0.02587408354	0.1687744077
7	6	0.01	0.009509900499	0.0585198506	0.9414801494	0.1666666667	0.001584983417	0.02395289152	0.1927272992
8	7	0.01	0.009414801494	0.06793465209	0.9320653479	0.1428571429	0.001344971642	0.0223679081	0.2150952073
9	8	0.01	0.009320653479	0.07725530557	0.9227446944	0.125	0.001165081685	0.02102293646	0.2361181438
10	9	0.01	0.009227446944	0.08648275252	0.9135172475	0.1111111111	0.001025271883	0.01985785478	0.2559759986
11	10	0.01	0.009135172475	0.09561792499	0.904382075	0.1	0.0009135172475	0.01883258289	0.2748085814
12	11	0.01	0.00904382075	0.1046617457	0.8953382543	0.09090909091	0.0008221655227	0.01791906565	0.2927276471
13	12	0.01	0.008953382543	0.1136151283	0.8863848717	0.08333333333	0.0007461152119	0.01709690012	0.3098245472
14	13	0.01	0.008863848717	0.122478977	0.877521023	0.07692307692	0.0006818345167	0.01635078491	0.3261753321
15	14	0.01	0.00877521023	0.1312541872	0.8687458128	0.07142857143	0.0006268007307	0.01566895039	0.3418442825
16	15	0.01	0.008687458128	0.1399416454	0.8600583546	0.06666666667	0.0005791638752	0.01504214966	0.3568864322
17	16	0.01	0.008600583546	0.1485422289	0.8514577711	0.0625	0.0005375364717	0.01446298579	0.371349418
18	17	0.01	0.008514577711	0.1570568066	0.8429431934	0.05882352941	0.0005008575124	0.01392544932	0.3852748673
19	18	0.01	0.008429431934	0.1654862385	0.8345137615	0.05555555556	0.0004683017741	0.0134245918	0.3986994591
20	19	0.01	0.008345137615	0.1738313762	0.8261686238	0.05263157895	0.0004392177692	0.01295629003	0.4116557491
21	20	0.01	0.008261686238	0.1820930624	0.8179069376	0.05	0.0004130843119	0.01251707226	0.4241728214
22	21	0.01	0.008179069376	0.1902721318	0.8097278682	0.04761904762	0.0003894794941	0.01210398795	0.4362768093
23	22	0.01	0.008097278682	0.1983694105	0.8016305895	0.04545454545	0.0003680581219	0.01171450846	0.4479913178
24	23	0.01	0.008016305895	0.2063857164	0.7936142836	0.04347826087	0.0003485350389	0.01134645033	0.4593377681
25	24	0.01	0.007936142836	0.2143218592	0.7856781408	0.04166666667	0.0003306726182	0.01099791529	0.4703356834
26	25	0.01	0.007856781408	0.2221786406	0.7778213594	0.04	0.0003142712563	0.01066724268	0.4810029261
27	26	0.01	0.007778213594	0.2299568542	0.7700431458	0.03846153846	0.0002991620613	0.01035297142	0.4913558975
28	27	0.01	0.007700431458	0.2376572857	0.7623427143	0.03703703704	0.0002852011651	0.01005380936	0.5014097069
29	28	0.01	0.007623427143	0.2452807128	0.7547192872	0.03571428571	0.0002722652551	0.009768608193	0.5111783151
30	29	0.01	0.007547192872	0.2528279057	0.7471720943	0.03448275862	0.0002602480301	0.009496342938	0.520674658
31	30	0.01	0.007471720943	0.2602996266	0.7397003734	0.03333333333	0.0002490573648	0.009236094908	0.5299107529
32	31	0.01	0.007397003734	0.2676966303	0.7323033697	0.03225806452	0.0002386130237	0.008987037543	0.5388977905
33	32	0.01	0.007323033697	0.275019664	0.724980336	0.03125	0.000228844803	0.00874842452	0.547646215
34	33	0.01	0.00724980336	0.2822694674	0.7177305326	0.0303030303	0.0002196910109	0.008519579717	0.5561657947
35	34	0.01	0.007177305326	0.2894467727	0.7105532273	0.02941176471	0.0002110972155	0.008299888706	0.5644656834
36	35	0.01	0.007105532273	0.296552305	0.703447695	0.02857142857	0.0002030152078	0.00808879149	0.5725544749
37	36	0.01	0.00703447695	0.303586782	0.696413218	0.02777777778	0.0001954021375	0.007885776282	0.5804402512
38	37	0.01	0.00696413218	0.3105509141	0.6894490859	0.02702702703	0.0001882197887	0.007690374145	0.5881306253
39	38	0.01	0.006894490859	0.317445405	0.682554595	0.02631578947	0.00018143397	0.007502154356	0.5956327797
40	39	0.01	0.00682554595	0.3242709509	0.6757290491	0.02564102564	0.0001750139987	0.007320720386	0.6029535001
41	40	0.01	0.006757290491	0.3310282414	0.6689717586	0.025	0.0001689322623	0.007145706388	0.6100992064
42	41	0.01	0.006689717586	0.337717959	0.662282041	0.0243902439	0.0001631638436	0.006976774125	0.6170759806
43	42	0.01	0.00662282041	0.3443407794	0.6556592206	0.02380952381	0.0001576862002	0.006813610282	0.6238895909
44	43	0.01	0.006556592206	0.3508973716	0.6491026284	0.02325581395	0.0001524788885	0.006655924082	0.6305455149
45	44	0.01	0.006491026284	0.3573883979	0.6426116021	0.02272727273	0.0001475233246	0.006503445193	0.6370489601
46	45	0.01	0.006426116021	0.3638145139	0.6361854861	0.02222222222	0.0001428025782	0.006355921868	0.643404882
47	46	0.01	0.006361854861	0.3701763688	0.6298236312	0.02173913043	0.0001383011926	0.00621311929	0.6496180013
48	47	0.01	0.006298236312	0.3764746051	0.6235253949	0.02127659574	0.0001340050279	0.006074818098	0.6556928194
49	48	0.01	0.006235253949	0.3827098591	0.6172901409	0.02083333333	0.0001299011239	0.00594081307	0.6616336325
50	49	0.01	0.006172901409	0.3888827605	0.6111172395	0.02040816327	0.0001259775798	0.005810911946	0.6674445444
51	50	0.01	0.006111172395	0.3949939329	0.6050060671	0.02	0.0001222234479	0.005684934366	0.6731294788
52	51	0.01	0.006050060671	0.4010439935	0.5989560065	0.01960784314	0.0001186286406	0.005562710918	0.6786921897
53	52	0.01	0.005989560065	0.4070335536	0.5929664464	0.01923076923	0.0001151838474	0.005444082277	0.684136272
54	53	0.01	0.005929664464	0.4129632181	0.5870367819	0.01886792453	0.0001118804616	0.00532889843	0.6894651704
55	54	0.01	0.005870367819	0.4188335859	0.5811664141	0.01851851852	0.0001087105152	0.005217017968	0.6946821884
56	55	0.01	0.005811664141	0.42464525	0.57535475	0.01818181818	0.0001056666207	0.005108307453	0.6997904958
57	56	0.01	0.0057535475	0.4303987975	0.5696012025	0.01785714286	0.0001027419196	0.005002640832	0.7047931366
58	57	0.01	0.005696012025	0.4360948095	0.5639051905	0.01754385965	0.00009993003552	0.004899898913	0.7096930356
59	58	0.01	0.005639051905	0.4417338615	0.5582661385	0.01724137931	0.00009722503284	0.004799968877	0.7144930044
60	59	0.01	0.005582661385	0.4473165228	0.5526834772	0.01694915254	0.00009462137941	0.004702743844	0.7191957483
61	60	0.01	0.005526834772	0.4528433576	0.5471566424	0.01666666667	0.00009211391286	0.004608122465	0.7238038707
62	61	0.01	0.005471566424	0.458314924	0.541685076	0.01639344262	0.00008969781023	0.004516008552	0.7283198793
63	62	0.01	0.00541685076	0.4637317748	0.5362682252	0.01612903226	0.00008736856064	0.004426310742	0.73274619
64	63	0.01	0.005362682252	0.469094457	0.530905543	0.01587301587	0.00008512194051	0.004338942181	0.7370851322
65	64	0.01	0.00530905543	0.4744035125	0.5255964875	0.015625	0.00008295399109	0.004253820241	0.7413389525
66	65	0.01	0.005255964875	0.4796594773	0.5203405227	0.01538461538	0.00008086099808	0.00417086625	0.7455098187
67	66	0.01	0.005203405227	0.4848628826	0.5151371174	0.01515151515	0.00007883947313	0.004090005252	0.749599824
68	67	0.01	0.005151371174	0.4900142538	0.5099857462	0.01492537313	0.00007688613693	0.004011165779	0.7536109897
69	68	0.01	0.005099857462	0.4951141112	0.5048858888	0.01470588235	0.00007499790386	0.003934279642	0.7575452694
70	69	0.01	0.005048858888	0.5001629701	0.4998370299	0.01449275362	0.00007317186794	0.003859281738	0.7614045511
71	70	0.01	0.004998370299	0.5051613404	0.4948386596	0.01428571429	0.00007140528999	0.00378610987	0.765190661
72	71	0.01	0.004948386596	0.510109727	0.489890273	0.01408450704	0.00006969558586	0.00371470458	0.7689053656
73	72	0.01	0.00489890273	0.5150086297	0.4849913703	0.01388888889	0.0000680403157	0.003645008994	0.7725503746
74	73	0.01	0.004849913703	0.5198585434	0.4801414566	0.01369863014	0.00006643717401	0.003576968678	0.7761273432
75	74	0.01	0.004801414566	0.524659958	0.475340042	0.01351351351	0.00006488398062	0.003510531504	0.7796378747
76	75	0.01	0.00475340042	0.5294133584	0.4705866416	0.01333333333	0.00006337867227	0.003445647524	0.7830835223
77	76	0.01	0.004705866416	0.5341192248	0.4658807752	0.01315789474	0.00006191929495	0.003382268851	0.7864657911
78	77	0.01	0.004658807752	0.5387780326	0.4612219674	0.01298701299	0.00006050399678	0.003320349556	0.7897861407
79	78	0.01	0.004612219674	0.5433902523	0.4566097477	0.01282051282	0.00005913102146	0.00325984556	0.7930459862
80	79	0.01	0.004566097477	0.5479563497	0.4520436503	0.01265822785	0.00005779870225	0.003200714538	0.7962467008
81	80	0.01	0.004520436503	0.5524767862	0.4475232138	0.0125	0.00005650545628	0.003142915836	0.7993896166
82	81	0.01	0.004475232138	0.5569520184	0.4430479816	0.01234567901	0.00005524977948	0.00308641038	0.802476027
83	82	0.01	0.004430479816	0.5613824982	0.4386175018	0.01219512195	0.00005403024166	0.0030311606	0.8055071876
84	83	0.01	0.004386175018	0.5657686732	0.4342313268	0.01204819277	0.00005284548215	0.002977130359	0.8084843179
85	84	0.01	0.004342313268	0.5701109865	0.4298890135	0.0119047619	0.00005169420557	0.002924284876	0.8114086028
86	85	0.01	0.004298890135	0.5744098766	0.4255901234	0.01176470588	0.00005057517806	0.002872590671	0.8142811935
87	86	0.01	0.004255901234	0.5786657778	0.4213342222	0.01162790698	0.00004948722365	0.002822015493	0.817103209
88	87	0.01	0.004213342222	0.5828791201	0.4171208799	0.01149425287	0.00004842922094	0.002772528269	0.8198757373
89	88	0.01	0.004171208799	0.5870503289	0.4129496711	0.01136363636	0.00004740009999	0.002724099048	0.8225998363
90	89	0.01	0.004129496711	0.5911798256	0.4088201744	0.01123595506	0.00004639883945	0.002676698948	0.8252765353
91	90	0.01	0.004088201744	0.5952680273	0.4047319727	0.01111111111	0.00004542446382	0.002630300109	0.8279068354
92	91	0.01	0.004047319727	0.599315347	0.400684653	0.01098901099	0.00004447604095	0.002584875645	0.830491711
93	92	0.01	0.00400684653	0.6033221936	0.3966778064	0.01086956522	0.00004355267967	0.002540399604	0.8330321106
94	93	0.01	0.003966778064	0.6072889716	0.3927110284	0.01075268817	0.00004265352757	0.002496846924	0.8355289575
95	94	0.01	0.003927110284	0.6112160819	0.3887839181	0.01063829787	0.00004177776897	0.002454193397	0.8379831509
96	95	0.01	0.003887839181	0.6151039211	0.3848960789	0.01052631579	0.00004092462296	0.002412415628	0.8403955666
97	96	0.01	0.003848960789	0.6189528819	0.3810471181	0.01041666667	0.00004009334155	0.002371491005	0.8427670576
98	97	0.01	0.003810471181	0.6227633531	0.3772366469	0.01030927835	0.00003928320805	0.002331397663	0.8450984552
99	98	0.01	0.003772366469	0.6265357195	0.3734642805	0.01020408163	0.0000384935354	0.002292114455	0.8473905697
100	99	0.01	0.003734642805	0.6302703624	0.3697296376	0.0101010101	0.00003772366469	0.00225362092	0.8496441906