Game probabilities.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V
1	Potential Battle Rating Drop chart:										Prior to Battle Rating Adjustment charts
2			General Battle Rating
3	# of CU		1	2	3	4	5	6				Att
4		1	1	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	-1	-2	-3
5		2	1	1	1	0	0	0		Def	0	58.33%	50.00%	43.06%	37.50%
6		3	1	1	2	1	1	0			1	65.28%	57.64%	50.00%	43.75%
7		4	1	1	2	2	2	1			2	70.83%	63.89%	56.94%	50.00%
8		5	1	1	2	2	3	2			3	75.00%	68.75%	62.50%	56.25%
9		6	1	1	2	2	3	3
10
11												Att							Att
12	Final DRM Attacker Odds										+ 1	0	-1	-2	-3			-1	0	-1	-2	-3
13	DRM		# Att Wins		Att Win %					Def	0	72.22%	65.28%	56.94%	50.00%		Def	0	41.67%	34.72%	29.17%	25.00%
14	-6		0		0.00%						1	77.78%	71.53%	63.89%	56.25%			1	50.00%	42.36%	36.11%	31.25%
15	-5		1		2.78%						2	81.94%	76.39%	69.44%	62.50%			2	56.94%	50.00%	43.06%	37.50%
16	-4		3		8.33%			1			3	84.72%	79.86%	73.61%	67.36%			3	62.50%	56.25%	50.00%	43.75%
17	-3		6		16.67%			3
18	-2		10		27.78%
19	-1		15		41.67%			5				Att							Att
20	0		21		58.33%			4			+ 2	0	-1	-2	-3			-2	0	-1	-2	-3
21	1		26		72.22%					Def	0	83.33%	77.78%	70.83%	62.50%		Def	0	27.78%	22.22%	18.06%	15.28%
22	2		30		83.33%						1	87.50%	82.64%	76.39%	68.75%			1	34.72%	28.47%	23.61%	25.00%
23	3		33		91.67%						2	90.28%	86.11%	80.56%	73.61%			2	43.06%	36.11%	30.56%	26.39%
24	4		35		97.22%						3	91.67%	88.19%	83.33%	77.08%			3	50.00%	43.75%	37.50%	32.64%
25	5+		36		100%
26
27												Att							Att
28	How to find odds prior the Battle Rating Drop roll:										+ 3	0	-1	-2	-3			-3	0	-1	-2	-3
29										Def	0	91.67%	87.50%	81.94%	75.00%		Def	0	16.67%	12.50%	9.72%	8.33%
30	1) For both the attacking and defending generals, determine the potential										1	94.44%	90.97%	86.11%	79.86%			1	22.22%	17.36%	13.89%	11.81%
31	loss of battle rating if they have an unfavorable on the “Potential Battle Rating										2	95.83%	93.06%	88.89%	83.33%			2	29.17%	23.61%	19.44%	16.67%
32	Drop Chart” (above.) to determine Potential Battle Rating Drop (PBRD)										3	95.83%	93.75%	90.28%	85.42%			3	37.50%	31.25%	26.39%	22.92%
33
34	2) Determine Attacker Advantage assuming no loss of General Combat Rating
35	Attacker DRM-Defender DRM											Att							Att
36											+ 4	0	-1	-2	-3			-4	0	-1	-2	-3
37	3) Choose the “Prior to Battle Rating Adjustment” Chart based on									Def	0	97.22%	94.44%	90.28%	84.72%		Def	0	8.33%	5.56%	4.17%	4.17%
38	Attacker Advantage determined in step 2 and cross referencing by colors										1	98.61%	96.53%	93.06%	88.19%			1	12.50%	9.03%	6.94%	6.25%
39	determined for each side in step 1. The result is the attacker's chances of										2	98.61%	97.22%	94.44%	90.28%			2	18.06%	13.89%	11.11%	9.72%
40	winning the battle.										3	98.61%	97.22%	95.14%	91.67%			3	25.00%	20.14%	16.67%	14.58%
41
42
43												Att							Att
44	Example:										+ 5	0	-1	-2	-3			-5	0	-1	-2	-3
45	So if Washington with 5 CU's attacks Cornwallis with 4 CU.									Def	0	100.00%	98.61%	95.83%	91.67%		Def	0	2.78%	1.39%	1.39%	1.39%
46	British Regulars, American Militia, Royal Navy apply:										1	100.00%	99.31%	97.22%	93.75%			1	5.56%	3.47%	2.78%	2.78%
47											2	100.00%	99.31%	97.92%	95.14%			2	9.72%	6.94%	5.56%	4.86%
48	Washington		Cornwallis								3	100.00%	99.31%	97.92%	95.83%			3	15.28%	11.81%	9.72%	8.33%
49	5 CU		4 CU
50	5 BR		4 BR
51	+1 Militia		+1 Navy									Att							Att
52	3 PBRD		+1 Regs								+ 6	0	-1	-2	-3			-6	0	-1	-2	-3
53			2 PBRD							Def	0	100.00%	100.00%	98.61%	95.83%		Def	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54	Total = 11		Total = 10		+1 Attacker Advantage						1	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%	97.22%			1	1.39%	0.69%	0.69%	0.69%
55											2	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%	97.92%			2	4.17%	2.08%	2.08%	2.08%
56	Attacker has a +1 advantage, so checking the +1 chart under										3	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%	97.92%			3	8.33%	6.25%	4.86%	4.17%
57	and both the Red column and Orange row, we find Attacker has
58	A 62.50% chance of winning the battle.
59												Att							Att
60											+ 7	0	-1	-2	-3			-7	0	-1	-2	-3
61	Richard Irving, rri12@sbcglobal.net									Def	0	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	98.61%		Def	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
62	© 2011	Version 1.1									1	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%			1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
63	Washington's War is a trademark of GMT Games.							Attack	Def		2	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%			2	1.39%	0.69%	0.69%	0.69%
64							CU	3	2		3	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	99.31%			3	4.17%	2.08%	2.08%	2.08%
65							Max BR	2	2
66		Milita	1				Milita
67		Regs	1				Regs					Att							Att
68		RN	1				RN				+ 8	0	-1	-2	-3			-8	0	-1	-2	-3
69							Battle card	0	0	Def	0	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%		Def	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
70							PBRD	1	1		1	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%			1	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
71							Total	7	4		2	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%			2	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
72						Attacker advantage		3			3	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%			3	1.39%	0.69%	0.69%	0.69%
73
74
75				d6				d6
76				2				4
77				1/2				2/4								C			G
78								1
79				4-10				1		0.1666666667	11	8.33%						8	1	8.33
80								9-16		0.1666666667	12	8.33%		9	1	8.33		9	1	8.33
81										0.1666666667	13	8.33		10	1	8.33		10	2	16.66
82								0.5	11-16	0.1666666667	14	8.33		11	2	16.66		11	2	16.66
83							9-16	->		0.1666666667	15	8.33		12	2	16.66		12	2	16.66
84										0.1666666667	16	8.33		13	2	16.66		13	2	16.66
85														14	2	16.66		14	1	8.33
86										0.1666666667	9	8.33		15	1	8.33		15	1	8.33
87										0.1666666667	10	8.33		16	1	8.33
88								0.5	9-14	0.1666666667	11	8.33
89										0.1666666667	12	8.33					C		good outcomes
90										0.1666666667	13	8.33					8	0.0833	8	0.6664
91										0.1666666667	14	8.33					9	0.0833	8	0.6664
92																	10	0.1666	7	1.1662
93																	11	0.1666	6	0.9996
94																	12	0.1666	5	0.833
95																	13	0.1666	4	0.6664
96										0.17	5	0.08333333333		4	1		14	0.0833	3	0.2499
97										0.17	6	0.08333333333		5	2		15	0.0833	2	0.1666
98										0.17	7	0.08333333333		6	2		Sum		43	5.4145
99								0.5	5-10	0.17	8	0.08333333333		7	2		total outcomes		64
100							4-10			0.17	9	0.08333333333		8	2				0.671875