mannhowie.com - YouTube Valuation Blog (2022)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	V	W	X
1	YouTube Financial Forecast and Valuation Model

2		Instructions: change the valuation assumptions and forecast inputs based on your thesis to see how that impacts the final valuation figure
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4		Valuation Assumptions
5		Risk free rate (US 10yr)		3.1%
6		Discount rate		8.0%
7		Effective tax rate		21.0%
8		Stable growth rate		3.5%
9		Sales/ Capital ratio		1.9
10		YouTube Valuation ($m)		183,785
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12			A	B	C = A x B	D	E	F = D x E	G = C + F	H	I = G x H	J	J/ G	K/ G	K = I - J	L	M	K - L - M	H	C./ H	Discount present value of cashflows
13		CY end	Est MAU (m)	Ad ARPU	Ad Revenue ($m)	Est Premium Subs (m)	Premium ARPU	Premium Revenue (m)	Total Revenue ($m)	% GP margin	Gross Profit ($m)	Opex ($m)	Opex as % revenue	% EBIT margin	EBIT ($m)	Tax ($m)	Reinvest (Net capex) ($m)	Unlevered Free Cash Flows ($m)	Global Digital Ad Spend (ex China) $m	% Industry Ad Revenue Share	Year	Discount factor	PV of UFCF
14		2019	1,900	$8	15,149	15	$120	1,800	16,949	37%	6,261	5,932	35%	2%	328	-69	-2,751	-2,491	263,860	6%
15		2020	2,000	$10	19,772	25	$120	3,000	22,772	37%	8,406	7,970	35%	2%	436	-92	-3,084	-2,740	301,111	7%
16		2021	2,100	$14	28,845	40	$120	4,800	33,645	37%	12,432	10,094	30%	7%	2,339	-491	-5,759	-3,911	399,560	7%	0	1.00	-3,911
17		2022	2,142	$16	35,306	55	$120	6,600	41,906	37%	15,515	12,572	30%	7%	2,943	-618	-4,375	-2,050	466,830	8%	0.5	0.96	-1,973
18		2023	2,228	$20	44,062	70	$144	10,080	54,142	37%	20,271	13,536	25%	12%	6,735	-1,414	-6,481	-1,160	532,560	8%	1.5	0.89	-1,033
19		2024	2,317	$24	54,990	85	$144	12,240	67,230	38%	25,547	16,807	25%	13%	8,740	-1,835	-6,932	-27	594,390	9%	2.5	0.82	-22
20		2025	2,409	$26	62,908	100	$168	16,800	79,708	38%	30,289	15,942	20%	18%	14,347	-3,013	-6,609	4,725	644,220	10%	3.5	0.76	3,610
21		2026	2,506	$29	71,967	115	$168	19,320	91,287	38%	34,689	18,257	20%	18%	16,432	-3,451	-6,133	6,848	686,090	10%	4.5	0.71	4,844
22		2027	2,606	$32	82,330	130	$180	23,400	105,730	38%	40,177	21,146	20%	18%	19,031	-3,997	-7,650	7,385	720,395	11%	5.5	0.65	4,837
23		2028	2,710	$35	94,186	145	$180	26,100	120,286	38%	45,709	24,057	20%	18%	21,651	-4,547	-7,709	9,396	756,414	12%	6.5	0.61	5,697
24		2029	2,819	$38	107,749	160	$180	28,800	136,549	38%	51,888	27,310	20%	18%	24,579	-5,162	-8,613	10,804	794,235	14%	7.5	0.56	6,066
25		2030	2,875	$42	120,894	175	$180	31,500	152,394	38%	57,910	30,479	20%	18%	27,431	-5,760	-8,392	13,278	833,947	14%	8.5	0.52	6,903
26		CAGR (%)	4%	16%	21%	25%	4%	30%	22%		22%	16%			50%				11%
27		Terminal Value																305,398
28		PV (Terminal Value)																158,769
29		PV of UFCF																25,017
30		Value of Operating Assets																183,785
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37						https://blog.youtube/news-and-events/50-million/
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