S&P 500 Valuation History
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1
DateYearReal EarningsReal Price
Smoothed Real Earnings
Real Price/ Real Smoothed Earnings
9 yr Avg PEStdDev-1StdDev+1StdDev-1Smooth
Smoothed Avg PE
+1SmoothLow RangeAverageHigh RangeReal Price
S&P 500 Over (under) valuation
2
Dec 31, 1938193811.27220.111319.5306122416.931538460.05906137841214.4317156187.59221220.1117.34%
3
Dec 31, 1939193915.85218.1513.332813.7634069416.361904480.061117579651.00377311112.0412527714.5023089817.09129160.543615193.3563851227.8747513218.1512.82%
4
Dec 31, 1940194018.36184.4613.6741196810.0468409613.489716660.0741305414712.0826473614.5749802917.18307023165.2195661199.3000248234.9633588184.46-7.45%
5
Dec 31, 1941194118.45140.2214.024177147.69.9984475780.100015526612.1241842514.6480157717.27534331170.0317077205.4263679242.2724749140.22-31.74%
6
Dec 31, 1942194215.02147.1914.383196089.79960053310.233469610.0977185683713.048424312.69974691810.3486773915.7481712312.1658639414.7214172217.36811191174.9840065211.7410305249.8089591147.19-30.49%
7
Dec 31, 1943194313.32167.8914.751405912.6043543511.381288070.0878635171712.217326162.4987677829.71855837614.7160939412.2076869114.7951864917.46137867180.0805447218.2498013257.5798843167.89-23.07%
8
Dec 31, 1944194412.88186.8315.1290418914.5054347812.349096620.0809775833111.446672622.0981958779.34847674113.5448684912.2496536514.8693254317.55514627185.3255233224.9586472265.5925433186.83-16.95%
9
Dec 31, 1945194513244.0915.5163453618.7761538515.731152810.0635681320911.093923141.975039139.11888401213.0689622712.2917646714.9438358717.64941741190.7232657231.8737184273.8544559244.095.27%
10
Dec 31, 1946194612.15174.415.913563814.3539094710.95920450.0912474988711.282106591.9379520979.34415449513.2200586912.3340204515.0187196817.74419478196.2782214239.0013539282.3733758174.4-27.03%
11
Dec 31, 1947194716.96154.2616.320951049.0955188689.4516550940.105801575511.529705661.9295627869.6001428713.4592684412.376421515.0939787417.83948111201.9949693246.348088291.1572976154.26-37.38%
12
Dec 31, 1948194823.42157.7816.738767386.7369769439.4260226210.10608928511.720799941.9970107239.72378921613.7178106612.4189683115.1696149317.93527912207.8782216253.9206555300.2144651157.78-37.86%
13
Dec 31, 1949194924.23177.0817.167279837.30829550110.314971370.096946463911.713621161.9945844779.71903668313.7082056412.4616613815.2456301318.03159157213.932828261.7259985309.5533782177.08-32.34%
14
Dec 31, 1950195028.01205.8617.606762197.34951802911.692098620.085527845111.840561492.2958358399.54472565514.1363973312.5045012215.3220262418.12842121220.1637793269.7712722319.1828012205.86-23.69%
15
Dec 31, 1951195122.7225.0318.05749539.91321585912.461861190.0802448353712.881487633.5997771089.28171052216.4812647412.5474883315.3988051718.22577084226.5762116278.0638521329.1117713225.03-19.07%
16
Dec 31, 1952195222.16242.6318.5197671810.9490072213.101136620.0763292551814.031698263.99861707910.0330811818.0303153412.5906232215.4759688518.32364323233.1754108286.61134339.3496065242.63-15.35%
17
Dec 31, 1953195323233.3318.9938732210.1447826112.28448760.0814034767214.85838423.68413747111.1742467318.5425216712.633906415.5535191918.42204119239.9668165295.4215716349.9059149233.33-21.02%
18
Dec 31, 1954195425.58328.719.4801163812.8498827216.873615830.0592641204116.149804943.92186144912.2279434920.0716663912.6773383715.6314581418.52096755246.9560269304.5026237360.7906033328.77.95%
19
Dec 31, 1955195533.3406.1219.9788073612.195795820.327539710.0491943449217.304929113.97543635113.3294927621.2803654712.7209196515.7097876418.62042515254.1488032313.8628209372.0138869406.1229.39%
20
Dec 31, 1956195630.46405.7820.4902648313.3217334219.803550780.0504959949418.341641333.76564627214.5759950522.107287612.7646507615.7885096518.72041683261.5510744323.510744383.5862985405.7825.43%
21
Dec 31, 1957195729.25354.4421.014815612.1176068416.866196050.0592901918719.598317053.68450306815.9138139823.2828201212.8085321915.8676261418.82094547269.1689422333.4552375395.5186985354.446.29%
22
Dec 31, 1958195824.65472.8221.5527948819.1813387421.937758070.0455835093420.691693912.51834920918.173344723.2100431212.8525644815.9471390918.92201395277.008686343.7054177407.8222854472.8237.57%
23
Dec 31, 1959195928.43488.2522.1045464317.1737601122.088216170.0452730085721.58789432.42315747119.1647368324.0110517812.8967481416.0270504719.02362516285.0767682354.2706814420.5086057488.2537.82%
24
Dec 31, 1960196027.05494.0422.6704228218.2639556421.79227110.0458878285622.343636612.97806608319.3655705225.3217026912.9410836916.1073622919.12578203293.3798391365.1607138433.5895654494.0435.29%
25
Dec 31, 1961196126.21567.5823.2507856521.6550934824.411218130.0409647726223.267999663.3579737519.9100259126.6259734112.9855716616.1880765619.22848748301.9247432376.3854981447.0774406567.5850.80%
26
Dec 31, 1962196229.76527.5923.8460057617.728158622.124879330.0451979866224.058929962.34808823621.7108417226.4070181913.0302125616.2691952919.33174445310.7185238387.9553245460.9848896527.5935.99%
27
Dec 31, 1963196332.07609.9324.4564635119.0187090724.939419380.0400971644424.442806162.23778130122.2050248626.6805874613.0750069316.350720519.43555592319.7684298399.8807993475.3249641609.9352.53%
28
Dec 31, 1964196435.95680.4725.0825489718.9282336627.129220430.0368606242324.816573072.06998257922.746590526.8865556513.1199552916.4326542419.53992486329.081921412.1728547490.1111222680.4765.09%
29
Dec 31, 1965196540.23723.4525.7246622317.9828486228.122818240.0355583139524.694513162.29117743822.4033357226.985690613.1650581716.5149985519.64485425338.6666745424.8427594505.3572402723.4570.29%
30
Dec 31, 1966196641.59632.7926.3832135815.2149555223.984568750.0416934742624.186382582.81018749621.3761950826.9965700713.210316116.5977554919.75034712348.530591437.902128521.0776264632.7944.50%
31
Dec 31, 1967196738.76687.0927.0586238517.7267801925.392643910.0393814840124.027693652.97655055921.0511430927.0042442113.2557296116.6809271219.85640649358.6818014451.3629324537.287034687.0952.23%
32
Dec 31, 1968196840706.3327.7513246217.6582525.45211840.0392894604723.736123943.00447136720.7316525726.740595313.3012992516.7645155319.96303539369.1286732465.2375126554.0006754706.3351.82%
33
Dec 31, 1969196937.8588.9828.4617585315.5814814820.693731890.0483238115522.515770173.62125217118.89451826.1370223413.3470255416.8485228120.07023689379.8798178479.5385876571.2342359588.9822.82%
34
Dec 31, 1970197031.78579.0829.1903795518.2215229719.838042840.0504081984320.572230724.75291066115.8193200625.3251413813.3929090216.9329510420.17801406390.9440975494.2792677589.0038889579.0817.16%
35
Dec 31, 1971197134.19619.6129.9376532618.1225504520.696679010.0483169304319.347935395.16530781314.1826275824.513243213.4389502417.0178023520.28637402.3306325509.4730659607.3263109619.6121.62%
36
Dec 31, 1972197237.24685.1730.7040571918.3987647722.315291950.0448123198417.957229645.01722459812.9400050422.9744542313.4851497417.1030788420.3953078414.0488087525.1339108626.2186971685.1730.48%
37
Dec 31, 1973197343.54508.4431.4900810511.677537916.146036560.0619347042916.264481524.73449585511.5299856620.9989773713.5315080617.1887826620.50483061426.1082854541.2761591645.6987777508.44-6.07%
38
Dec 31, 1974197442.23343.3432.296227128.13023916610.630963140.0940648544415.084294984.81554717110.2687478119.8998421613.5780257417.2749159420.61494155438.5190033557.9146088665.7848343343.34-38.46%
39
Dec 31, 1975197535.36429.4733.1230105412.145644812.96591080.077125318513.945509864.7624163579.18309350318.7079262213.6247033417.3614808420.72564378451.2911924575.0645128686.4957174429.47-25.32%
40
Dec 31, 1976197641.98437.4233.9709596110.4197236812.876292130.0776621087512.759991744.1619122328.59807950616.9219039713.6715414117.4484795220.83694049464.435381592.7415929707.8508637437.42-26.20%
41
Dec 31, 1977197743.23355.9834.840616178.23455933410.217385310.0978723978111.164413742.4352259748.72918776213.5996397113.7185404917.5359141420.94883486477.9624038610.9620539729.8703146355.98-41.73%
42
Dec 31, 1978197844.9359.935.732535958.015590210.072053110.0992846233610.392696271.6249135838.76778268212.0176098513.7657011517.6237869121.0613301491.8834111629.7425992752.574735359.9-42.85%
43
Dec 31, 1979197947.76351.4136.647288877.3578308219.5889767250.104286414410.314654631.6289016148.68575301511.9435562413.8130239317.712121.17442945506.2098779649.1004453775.9854325351.41-45.86%
44
Dec 31, 1980198042.33376.8737.585459468.9031419810.027015910.09973056889.9453896041.2952775778.65011202711.2406671813.8605093917.8008556421.28813613520.9536137669.053338800.1243776376.87-43.67%
45
Dec 31, 1981198140.28306.6538.547647237.6129592857.9550899230.12570568159.734749940.82945517398.90529476610.5642051113.9081580917.8900560321.40245342536.1267717689.6195686825.0142243306.65-55.53%
46
Dec 31, 1982198231.93363.7439.5344669911.391794559.2005793340.108688807910.089013011.4839883988.60502461611.5730014113.955970617.979703421.5173846551.741859710.8179907850.6783312363.74-48.83%
47
Dec 31, 1983198334.14402.5740.5465493511.791739899.9285884120.100719252210.291865071.6015059728.69035909511.8933710414.0039474718.069821.63293295567.8117473732.6680375877.1407836402.57-45.05%
48
Dec 31, 1984198438.96400.9841.5845410110.292094469.6425255690.103707269710.629502411.7483818568.88112055412.3778842714.0520892818.1603480821.7491018584.3496829755.1897394904.4264159400.98-46.90%
49
Dec 31, 1985198532.95468.3142.6491052614.2127465910.980535160.091070242511.064452242.0420224369.02242980113.1064746714.1003965818.2513498921.86589448601.3692981778.4037426932.5608353468.31-39.84%
50
Dec 31, 1986198632.3586.3843.7409223618.1541795713.405752970.0745948401311.549245481.7010087859.84823669613.2502542714.1488699618.3428077121.98331433618.8846222802.3313281961.5704454586.38-26.92%
51
Dec 31, 1987198737.38533.7444.8606899714.2787586911.89772160.0840497057912.18969051.78900204910.4006884513.9786925514.1975099718.4347238422.10136473636.9100929826.9944307991.4824711533.74-35.46%
52
Dec 31, 1988198848.59580.9946.0091236311.9569870312.627712810.0791909045512.728849251.75322518710.9756240614.4820744414.2463171918.5271005522.22004906655.4605688852.41565981022.324984580.99-31.84%
53
Dec 31, 1989198944.71657.8647.186957214.7139342413.941564340.0717279621813.354867821.50122481711.85364314.8560926414.2952921918.6199401722.33937072674.5513409878.61831971054.12693657.86-25.13%
54
Dec 31, 1990199039.32596.1448.394943315.161241112.318229120.0811805000513.718361351.22513309812.4932282514.9434944514.3444355718.71324522.45933314694.1981459905.62643091086.918154596.14-34.17%
55
Dec 31, 1991199128.55742.7549.6338538526.0157618214.96458450.066824441414.213763741.833388212.3803755416.0471519414.3937478818.8070173922.57993976714.4171785933.46475261120.72943742.75-20.43%
56
Dec 31, 1992199233.17752.4250.9044805122.6837503814.781017160.0676543426715.234035852.72271447212.5113213817.9567503214.4432297118.9012596822.70119404735.2251054962.15880481155.59249752.42-21.80%
57
Dec 31, 1993199337.01797.5652.2076352121.5498513915.276692710.0654591945616.657895884.16049666112.4973992220.8183925414.4928816518.9959742122.82309945756.6390784991.7348921191.540051797.56-19.58%
58
Dec 31, 1994199450.39763.1153.5441506715.1440762114.251976930.0701657043818.623127256.32913474312.2939925124.9522619914.5427042819.0911633622.9456595778.67674931022.2201271228.605849763.11-25.35%
59
Dec 31, 1995199554.54981.0254.9148809317.9871653817.864374530.0559773306721.061901897.6804970213.3814048728.7423989114.5926981919.186829523.06887769801.35628351053.6424581266.824671981.02-6.89%
60
Dec 31, 1996199660.21,187.2556.3207018819.721760821.080170530.0474379464122.752195847.84313681814.9090590230.5953326614.6428639619.2829750323.19275756824.69637581086.0306881306.2323841,187.259.32%
61
Dec 31, 1997199760.711,469.6257.7625118524.2072146325.442453120.0393043860723.869329817.26021503416.6091147831.1295448514.6932021919.3796023523.31730267848.71626561119.414511346.8659721,469.6231.28%
62
Dec 31, 1998199856.721,873.7259.2412321533.0345557131.628646670.0316169076224.232335376.84679018517.3855451931.0791255614.7437134719.4767138623.44251658873.43575241153.8245281388.7635671,873.7262.39%
63
Dec 31, 1999199970.562,082.0060.757807729.5068027234.267200860.0291824244525.140543645.82302043919.317523230.9635640814.7943983919.5743120123.5684029898.87521241189.2922851431.9644912,082.0075.06%
64
Dec 31, 2000200070.841,880.4462.3132075726.5448898930.177230050.0331375675825.616975015.30571479320.3112602230.922689814.8452575519.6723992223.69496522925.05561541225.8502961476.5092861,880.4453.40%
65
Dec 31, 2001200134.451,587.1863.9084256946.0719883924.835222950.0402653925125.772791725.1748016120.5979901130.9475933314.8962915619.7709779523.82220718951.9985421263.5320751522.4397581,587.1825.61%
66
Dec 31, 2002200237.61,215.4465.5444813832.3255319118.543742730.0539265462625.603415765.21178053220.3916352330.815196314.94750119.8700506523.95013244979.72620121302.3721651569.799011,215.44-6.67%
67
Dec 31, 2003200365.21,507.5267.2224201123.1214723922.425851340.0445913952124.49477314.81610217919.6786709229.3108752814.9988864919.9696198124.078744651008.2614491342.4061731618.6314881,507.5212.30%
68
Dec 31, 2004200475.851,527.2568.9433140620.1351351422.152256830.0451421273922.159419434.57493850317.5844809326.7343579315.0504486320.0696879224.208047511037.6278071383.6707971668.9830221,527.2510.38%
69
Dec 31, 2005200587.471,589.7070.708262918.1742311622.482520920.0444789978620.621929043.80374978316.8181792524.4256788215.1021880320.1702574724.338044721067.8494811426.2038681720.9008651,589.7011.46%
70
Dec 31, 2006200699.571,734.5072.5183944317.4199055923.918069530.0418093943119.850802393.53695164716.3138507423.3877540415.1541052920.2713309724.468740021098.9513841470.0443751774.433741,734.5017.99%
71
Dec 31, 2007200777.681,610.2874.3748653320.7296601421.650862730.0461875359119.700377933.62712772416.0732502123.3275056615.2062010320.3729109524.600137161130.9591531515.2325081829.6318881,610.286.27%
72
Dec 31, 2008200817.451,010.6276.2788618857.9151862513.249017820.0754772930319.295143253.48553655415.809606722.780679815.2584758620.4749999624.732239891163.8991721561.8096941886.5471111,010.62-35.29%
73
Dec 31, 2009200958.191,278.2978.2316007521.9675201916.339816490.0612001977219.299228133.4893229915.8099051422.7885511215.3109303920.5776005324.865052021197.7985941609.8186291945.2328221,278.29-20.59%
74
Dec 31, 20102010871,435.8080.2343297316.5034482817.895083130.0558812715719.478977023.70858421415.770392823.1875612315.3635652520.6807152324.998577351232.685361659.3033252005.7440981,435.80-13.47%
75
Dec 31, 2011201194.981,414.5382.2883285714.8929248317.189922610.0581736184919.257860563.46195426715.7959062922.7198148315.4163810620.7843466525.132819711268.588231710.3091462068.1377261,414.53-17.29%
76
Dec 31, 2012201292.891,584.8384.3949097817.061362918.778739190.053251711419.600568273.85841809515.7421501823.4589863715.4693784320.8884973625.267782951305.5367971762.8828512132.4722631,584.83-10.10%
77
Dec 31, 20132013105.991,920.5886.5554194718.1203887222.189020770.0450673335521.242250043.96007653317.2821735125.2023265715.52255820.9931699825.403470951343.5615191817.0726342198.8080841,920.585.70%
78
Dec 31, 20142014107.412,139.4188.7712382119.9181640424.100260890.0414933267622.572826694.11572848518.457098226.6885551715.5759203821.0983671125.539887591382.6937381872.9281732267.2074452,139.4114.23%
79
Dec 31, 2015201590.191,996.4191.043781922.1356026221.928021420.0456037496815.629466221.2040913925.677036781422.9657121930.5006722337.7345371,996.413.41%
80
Dec 31, 2016201696.542,309.6493.3745027223.9241765124.735232130.0404281631415.683196121.3103454525.814922471464.4106371989.8429092410.4555482,309.6416.07%
81
Dec 30, 201720171002,683.7395.7648899926.837328.024153740.0356835039315.7371107221.4171319525.95354861507.0626762051.0092852485.4387272,683.7330.85%
82
2018110278198.2164711825.2818181828.31500630.0353169619515.7912106721.5244535726.092919161550.9569882114.0558732562.7544422351.111.21%
83
2019100.730812815.8454966121.6323129726.233038141596.1297532179.0404692642.475255
84
2020103.309521615.8999691621.7407128626.373909551642.6182082246.0226452724.67598#NAME?
85
2021105.954245415.9546289821.8496559426.515537441690.4606742315.0638072809.433761
86
2022108.6666741287216.0094767121.9591449426.657925881739.6965872386.2272462896.828143
87
2023111.4485409254116.0645129822.0691825826.801078941790.3665332459.5781992986.941144
88
2024114.301623633116.1197384622.1797716326.945000741842.5122782535.1839093079.857332
89
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90
2026120.228775426.1090909116.2307596122.40261527.235167051951.4043532693.4389683274.450783
91
2027123.306632116.286556622.5148748827.38141992008.2404432776.2333943376.31067
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