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Notion (More Details)
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See also: Bumble Sheets
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This model is still a work in progress, especially for estimates beyond 2025
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In $ thousand except revenue per person (RPP) and EPS
Input Field20212022Y/YQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 20232023Y/YQ1 2024Y/YQ2 2024Y/YQ3 2024Y/YQ4 2024Y/Y2024Y/YQ1 2025Y/YQ2 2025 Y/YQ3 2025 Y/YQ4 2025Y/Y2025Y/YQ1 2026Y/Y
Q2 2026 Base
Y/Y
Q3 2026 Base
Y/Y
Q4 2026 Base
Y/Y2026 BaseY/Y2027 BaseY/Y2028 BaseY/Y
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Tinder Revenue1,649,7571,794,4678.77%1,917,6296.86%481,487479,945503,217475,9701,940,6191.20%447,403-7.08%461,237-3.90%490,489-2.53%463,792-2.56%1,862,922-4.0%454,7341.64%442,557-4.05%465,964-5.00%440,603-5.00%1,783,374-4.27%1,765,183-1.02%1,747,179-1.02%
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Payers10,87710,375-4.62%9,7139,6349,9459,4919,696-6.54%9,107-6.24%8,970-6.89%9,258-6.91%8,769-7.61%9,026-6.9%8,632-5.22%8,522-5.00%8,795-5.00%8,331-5.00%8,506-5.76%8,336-2.00%8,170-2.00%
Management doesn't expect user trends at Tinder to improve until proudct offensive start paying off
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RPP13.7513.8015.1216.2816.4915.4012.03%16.5219.74%16.619.83%16.873.60%16.721.37%16.688.29%16.38-0.90%17.143.22%17.664.70%17.635.46%17.203.1%17.567.23%17.311.00%17.660.00%17.630.00%17.471.58%17.651.00%17.821.00%
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Hinge Revenue196,538283,66844.33%396,48539.77%123,753133,569145,425147,688550,43538.83%152,24123.02%167,50225.41%184,69727.00%186,48826.27%690,92825.5%194,50627.76%200,50019.70%217,05517.52%215,13215.36%821,77118.94%947,17315.26%1,071,44313.12%
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Payers9801,24226.73%1,4241,4841,6021,6191,53223.35%1,69719.17%1,74717.72%1,87316.92%1,88616.49%1,80117.5%1,95715.32%1,99214.00%2,11613.00%2,11212.00%2,04313.45%2,30913.00%2,58612.00%
I expect continued strong performance at Hinge due to product positioning (attractive product)
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RPP24.1226.6010.29%28.9730.0030.2630.4129.9412.55%29.903.23%31.966.53%32.878.63%32.968.40%31.976.8%33.1310.79%33.565.00%34.184.00%33.953.00%33.524.84%34.192.00%34.531.00%
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Hinge Operating Income52,400#DIV/0!#DIV/0!
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Evergreen and Emerging Revenue807,934730,372-9.60%691,426-5.33%168,600160,935158,390155,063642,988-7.01%149,150-11.54%147,822-8.15%152,251-3.88%144,507-6.81%593,731-7.7%139,129-6.72%132,508-10.36%143,055-6.04%135,779-6.04%548,262-7.66%523,042-4.60%511,326-2.24%
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Payers3,4873,066-12.07%2,8392,7182,6212,4852,666-13.05%2,395-15.64%2,309-15.05%2,284-12.86%2,138-13.96%2,282-14.4%2,019-15.70%1,916-17.00%1,987-13.00%1,860-13.00%1,950-14.54%1,755-10.00%1,650-6.00%
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RPP17.4518.797.67%19.8019.7420.1420.8020.106.95%20.764.86%21.348.12%22.2210.31%22.538.32%21.697.9%22.9710.65%23.058.00%24.008.00%24.338.00%23.438.05%24.846.00%25.834.00%
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MG Asia Revenue268,642321,71419.76%302,591-5.94%71,45973,68472,16466,629283,936-6.17%63,655-10.92%68,918-6.47%69,155-4.17%65,616-1.52%267,343-5.8%59,546-6.46%64,672-6.16%67,668-2.15%64,205-2.15%258,832-3.18%261,2650.94%269,1553.02%
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Payers992919-7.36%9541,0051,0461,0121,0049.25%9994.72%1,0676.17%1,1126.31%1,0463.36%1,0565.2%913-8.61%982-8.00%1,1453.00%1,0773.00%1,0580.22%1,0903.00%1,1122.00%
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RPP27.0327.441.53%24.9724.4423.0021.9523.57-14.11%21.24-14.93%22-11.90%20.73-9.86%20.91-4.72%21.10-10.5%21.742.36%21.962.00%19.69-5.00%19.86-5.00%20.38-3.40%19.97-2.00%20.171.00%
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Direct Revenue2,922,8713,130,2217.09%3,308,1315.68%845,299848,133879,196845,3503,417,9783.32%812,449-3.89%845,479-0.31%896,5921.98%860,4031.78%3,414,924-0.1%847,9154.37%840,238-0.62%893,744-0.32%855,719-0.54%3,412,239-0.08%3,496,6642.47%3,599,1022.93%
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Indirect Revenue60,40658,622-2.95%56,373-3.84%14,34815,93316,28814,82661,3958.91%18,72930.53%18,25914.60%17,6838.56%17,60318.73%72,27317.7%16,019-14.47%15,520-15.00%20,33515.00%20,24315.00%78,1998.20%86,01910.00%94,62110.00%
Management expects flat growth in indirect revenue in 2025
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Total Revenue2,983,2773,188,8436.89%3,364,5045.51%859,647864,066895,484860,1763,479,3733.41%831,178-3.31%863,738-0.04%914,2752.10%878,0062.07%3,487,1970.2%863,9343.94%855,758-0.92%914,079-0.02%875,962-0.23%3,490,4380.37%3,582,6832.64%3,693,7233.10%
Management targets 4–6% revenue CAGR by 2027
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Analyst Expectation (TIKR)#DIV/0!856,150898,540874,6703,485,060-0.06%3,616,1103.76%3,809,8405.36%
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Total paying users16,33615,60214,93014,84115,21414,60714,898-4.51%14,198-4.90%14,093-5.04%14,527-4.52%13,839-5.26%14,164-4.9%13,521-4.77%13,411-4.84%14,044-3.32%13,380-3.31%13,558-2.74%13,490-0.50%13,5170.20%
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Total average ARPU17.6718.8719.0519.2619.2919.128.20%191.07%204.98%20.586.84%20.727.43%20.095.1%20.909.59%20.972.97%21.602.99%22.192.73%
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Cost of revenue (excluding depreciation)839,308959,96314.38%954,014-0.62%256,742244,988253,129236,414991,2733.91%236,908-7.73%241,938-1.24%247,043-2.40%222,485-5.89%948,374-4.3%210,656-11.08%205,382-15.11%222,121-10.09%205,851-7.48%840,291-11.40%870,5923.61%912,3504.80%
Expects alternative payment to lead to cost savings of $90 million in 2025 and $14 million in Q4 2025
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Cost of revenue as % of total revenue29.87%28.35%28.27%27.48%28.49%28.50%28.01%27.02%25.34%27.20%-100.00%24.00%24.30%23.50%-7.26%24.00%24.30%24.70%
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Selling and marketing expense566,459534,517-5.64%586,2629.68%165,301154,628156,656145,515622,1006.11%157,096-4.96%148,254-4.12%169,1427.97%151,0493.80%625,5410.6%163,0303.78%154,1844.00%182,6738.00%157,0914.00%666,7546.59%653,419-2.00%633,816-3.00%
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General and administrative expense414,821435,8685.07%413,609-5.11%106,241114,304103,923114,371438,8396.10%111,5204.97%136,55519.47%148,02142.43%89,489-21.76%485,58510.7%89,128-20.08%122,900-10%133,219-10.00%98,43810.00%454,924-6.31%468,5723.00%482,6293.00%
13% job cuts in May will lead to annual cost savings of $100 million annually. But it expects to book around $17 billion restructuring cost in Q2. Total restructuring costs in 2025 expected to be around $25 million
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Product development expense241,049333,63938.41%384,18515.15%115,737113,576103,724109,138442,17515.09%120,8544.42%114,5110.82%104,9691.20%109,1740.03%449,5081.7%116,805-3.35%115,6561.00%106,0191.00%110,2661.00%454,0031.00%458,5431.00%463,1291.00%
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Depreciation41,40243,5945.29%61,80741.78%20,52121,09225,30220,58487,49941.57%21,7295.89%18,061-14.37%14,845-41.33%12,477-39.38%67,112-23.3%14,132-34.96%12,643-30.00%10,392-30.00%8,734-30.00%45,892-31.62%46,8102.00%47,7462.00%
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Amortization of intangibles28,559366,2571182.46%47,731-86.97%10,36710,95242,09010,76674,17555.40%10,4781.07%10,498-4.15%8,921-78.80%8,651-19.65%38,548-48.0%33,767222.27%9,973-5.00%8,475-5.00%8,218-5.00%36,621-5.00%36,9871.00%37,3571.00%
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Total operating costs and expenses2,131,5982,673,83825.44%2,447,608-8.46%674,909659,540684,824636,7882,656,0618.52%658,585-2.42%669,8171.56%692,9411.19%593,325-6.83%2,614,668-1.6%627,518-4.72%620,738-7.33%662,899-4.34%588,598-0.80%2,498,485-4.44%2,534,9231.46%2,577,0271.66%
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Operating income851,679515,005-39.53%916,89678.04%184,738204,526210,660223,388823,312-10.21%172,593-6.57%193,921-5.18%221,3345.07%284,68127.44%872,5296.0%236,41636.98%235,02021.19%251,18013.48%287,3640.94%991,95313.69%1,047,7605.63%1,116,6966.58%
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Operating margin (%)28.55%16.15%-43.43%27.25%68.74%21.49%23.67%23.52%25.97%23.66%-13.17%20.76%-3.37%22.45%-5.15%24.21%2.91%32.42%24.85%25.02%5.7%-100.00%28.42%13.58%29.25%2.91%30.23%3.38%
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Interest expense-130,493-145,54711.54%-159,8879.85%-40,353-40,038-40,120-39,560-160,0710.12%-35,256-12.63%-32,160-19.68%-37,024-7.72%-43,1118.98%-147,551-7.8%-42,52520.62%-35,0549.00%-40,3569.00%-46,9919.00%-160,8319.00%-168,8725.00%-177,3165.00%
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Other income, net-465,0388,033-101.73%19,772146.13%9,47410,5257,10013,71640,815106.43%2,616-72.39%-4,056-138.54%9,32831.38%13,137-4.22%21,025-48.5%6,640153.82%-3,894-4.00%8,955-4.00%12,612-4.00%20,184-4.00%21,1935.00%22,2535.00%
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Earnings before income taxes256,148377,49147.37%776,781105.77%153,859175,013177,640197,544704,056-9.36%139,953-9.04%157,705-9.89%193,6389.01%254,70728.94%746,0036.0%200,53143.28%196,07224.33%219,77913.50%252,985-0.68%851,30714.12%900,0815.73%961,6346.84%
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Income tax provision19,897-15,361-177.20%-125,309715.76%-30,625-41,693-41,159-39,266-152,74321.89%-22,382-26.92%-32,227-22.70%-32,882-20.11%-45,05114.73%-132,542-13.2%-33,68650.50%-39,21421.68%-37,362-45,537-178,77434.88%-189,0175.73%-201,9436.84%
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Tax rate7.77%-4.07%-16.13%-19.90%-23.82%-23.17%-19.88%-21.69%-15.99%-20.43%-14.22%-16.98%-26.71%-17.69%-11.02%-17.77%-18.1%-100.00%-20.00%-17.00%-18.00%-21.00%0-21.00%0-21.00%0
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Net earnings276,554359,91930.14%651,47281.01%123,234133,320136,481158,278551,313-15.37%117,571-4.60%125,478-5.88%160,75617.79%209,65632.46%613,46111.3%166,84541.91%156,85825.01%182,41613.47%207,447-1.05%672,5329.63%711,0645.73%759,6916.84%
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Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests1,1692,02773.40%67-96.69%-36-6-1318-37-155.22%-1-97.22%0-100.00%-7-46.15%-7-138.89%-15-59.5%-8700.00%0-50.00%-4-50.00%-4-50.00%-8-50.00%-4-50.00%-2-50.00%
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Impact from subsidiaries’ dilutive securities-993-222-77.64%-81-63.51%-8-5-6-5-24-70.37%-4-50.00%-3-40.00%-100.00%-100.00%-7-70.8%-100.00%-2-50.00%0-50.00%0-50.00%-4-50.00%-2-50.00%-1-50.00%
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Interest on dilutive Exchangeable Notes, net of income tax6,6164,151-37.26%12,684205.56%3,1713,1713,1713,17812,6910.06%3,1730.06%3,1730.06%-100.00%-100.00%6,346-50.0%-100.00%3,1760.08%00.08%00.08%6,3510.08%6,3570.10%6,3640.10%
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Net earnings attributable to Match Group, Inc. shareholders
283,346365,87529.13%664,14281.52%126,361136,480136,468161,469563,943-15.09%120,739-4.45%128,648-5.74%160,74917.79%209,64929.84%613,4468.8%166,83738.18%160,03224.39%182,41313.48%207,444-1.05%678,87210.67%717,4165.68%766,0526.78%
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Adjusted Operating Income1,271,136#DIV/0!282,609309,603342,540323,3941,265,034-0.48%278,363-1.50%293,117-5.32%301,406-12.01%369,84414.36%1,236,391-2.3%343,00023.22%322,88010.15%321,8486.78%363,229-1.79%1,318,3596.63%1,387,3355.23%1,470,0565.96%
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Stock-based compensation232,099#DIV/0!63,82069,86764,48869,206267,38115.20%70,39410.30%67,467-3.44%56,306-12.69%64,035-7.47%258,202-3.4%58,567-16.80%62,070-8.00%51,802-8.00%58,912-8.00%237,546-8.00%249,4235.00%261,8945.00%
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Diluted EPS0.931.2433.34%2.2682.72%0.440.490.490.592.02-10.76%0.440.57%0.49-0.16%0.6224.77%0.8339.85%2.3817.8%0.6649.42%0.6329.58%0.7318.21%0.853.07%2.8118.14%3.1612.42%3.5913.59%
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Analyst Expectation (TIKR)#DIV/0!0.620.690.742.6611.76%3.0815.79%3.5816.23%
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Diluted Shares outstanding304,840295,215-3.16%293,284-0.65%286,211279,382275,738273,676279,063-4.85%271,928-4.99%263,773-5.59%260,324-5.59%254,087-7.16%262,475-5.9%251,477-7.52%253,222-4.00%249,911-4.00%243,924-4.00%241,451-8.01%226,964-6.00%213,346-6.00%
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P/E12.411.09.7
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Current share price (Quote from Yahoo Finance)34.89
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Cash from operations1,080,380
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FCF
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Marketcap8,865,095
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EV12,837,774
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EV/OCF11.88264724
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Liabilities Current423,580
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Liabilities Longterm3,549,099
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Liabilities3,972,679
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