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Nigeria: Adjustment for program impact being to move distributions closer together
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Assumptions
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Cost per net in a counterfactual distribution$5.00
< arbitrary base value; this doesn't matter for the model
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Optional (if different): Cost per net for an AMF distribution$5.00
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Scenario 1: Counterfactual interval between distributions without GiveWell funding45 mos
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Scenario 2: Interval between distributions with GiveWell funding36 mos
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Simplifying model assumptions:
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Everyone immediately uses any new distributed nets
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When a net wears out, it isn't replaced until a new net distribution happens
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Any remaining nets when a new distribution happens are thrown away (we don't think this is realistic, but account for it separately with the pre-existing net adjustment).
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Both spacing scenarios share the same initial population coverage rate and net decay function
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Linear net decay within each year post-distribution (see net decay sheets)
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Question: How much less cost-effective is it to do the thing AMF is doing in Nigeria (moving up distributions by 9 months to 36-month intervals) than it is to do the thing modeled in our CEA?
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Scenario 1: New nets are delivered every 3.75 years (45 months)
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Distribution spacing (years)3.75
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Average coverage years per year0.61
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Net cost per year$1.33
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Cost per net coverage year$2.20
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Scenario 2: New nets are delivered every 3 years (36 months)—this is what is modeled in our CEA
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Distribution spacing (years)3
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Average coverage years per year0.70
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Net cost per year$1.67
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Cost per net coverage year$2.39
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Incrememental cost-effectiveness (i.e. what is cost-effectiveness relative to distributions every 45 months?)
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Average incremental coverage years per year0.09
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Incremental net cost per year$0.33
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Cost per incremental net coverage year$3.69
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How much less cost-effective is moving from every 3.75 years to every 3 years, versus moving from no intervention to every 3 years?-35%
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