malaria USAID botec

	A	B	C	D	F
1	Annual excess death estimates
2	1 year
3			Lower estimate	Upper estimate	Notes
4		Method 1	107,000	216,482	MAP
5		Method 2	102,044	242,157	see more
6		Method 3	189,428	383,251	WHO malaria report 2024 pg 8, table 2.1
7		Method 4	144,819	292,998
8		Average	135,823	283,722
9		Average (weighted)	125,389	265,588
10
11	Timeframe adjustments
12	90 days
13			Lower estimate	Upper estimate
14		method 1 adjusted	17,000	34,394
15		method 2 adjusted	16,213	38,473
16		method 3 adjusted	30,096	60,890
17		method 4 adjusted	23,009	46,551
18		Average	21,579	45,077
19		Average (weighted)	19,922	42,196
20
21
22	5 years
23			Lower estimate	Upper estimate
24		method 1 adjusted	617,400	1,249,121
25		method 2 adjusted	588,803	1,397,266
26		method 3 adjusted	1,093,020	2,211,392
27		method 4 adjusted	835,622	1,690,626
28		Average	783,711	1,637,101
29		Average (weighted)	723,508	1,532,465
30
31
32	Ratios				Notes
33		90 day ratio	0.159		MAP (additional figures, page 4)
34		5 year ratio	5.77		MAP (additional figures, page 4: taking the excess mortality figures from months 6-12)
35		Global fund replenishment adjustment ratio	0.70
36
37	Adjustment for compensation
38	90 days
39		method 1 adjusted	15595	31552
40		method 2 adjusted	14873	35294
41		method 3 adjusted	27609	55859
42		method 4 adjusted	21107	42704
43		Average	19796	41352
44		Average (weighted)	18275	38709
45
46	1 year
47			Lower estimate	Upper estimate
48		Method 1	80,475	162,816
49		Method 2	76,747	182,126
50		Method 3	142,469	288,242
51		Method 4	108,919	220,364
52		Average	102,152	213,387
53		Average (weighted)	94,305	199,748
54
55
56	5 years
57			Lower estimate	Upper estimate
58	Discounting for other country compensation alone	method 1 adjusted	464,346	939,463
59		method 2 adjusted	442,839	1,050,883
60		method 3 adjusted	822,059	1,663,186
61		method 4 adjusted	628,470	1,271,518
62		Average	589,429	1,231,262
63		Average (weighted)	544,150	1,152,566
64
65			Lower estimate	Upper estimate
66	Discounting for Global Fund replenishment compensation alone	method 1 adjusted	617,400	870,088
67		method 2 adjusted	588,803	973,281
68		method 3 adjusted	1,093,020	1,540,368
69		method 4 adjusted	835,622	1,177,623
70		Average	783,711	1,637,101
71		Average (weighted)	723,508	1,067,455
72
73	Combination		Lower estimate	Upper estimate
74		method 1 adjusted	464,346	746,225
75		method 2 adjusted	442,839	834,727
76		method 3 adjusted	822,059	1,321,086
77		method 4 adjusted	628,470	1,009,980
78		Average	589,429	978,005
79		Average (weighted)	544,150	915,495
80
81
82	Global Fund replenishment calculations
83			$, billions	Jan 2025 USD, billions	Notes
84	7th replenishment		15.7	16.75	source
85	6th replenishment		14	17.28	source
86	5th replenishment		12.9	16.97	source
87	Average		14.2	17
88
89
90	Percentage cut estimates
91				Notes
92	CGDev	29%		CGDev
93	Forecasting	44.1%		https://goodjudgment.io/docs/Superforecasting_Global_Health_Spending_250325.pdf
94	FY2026 budget request	62.1%		6.233/10.03
95	Average	45%
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