Quants vs. Critics Oscar 2013 Predictions
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Quantitative PredictionsQualitative Predictions
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CategoryWinnerPredictWiseSocial Oscars (critics' pick)Social Oscars (public opinion)FarsiteBen ZauzmerLos Angeles TimesNew York Times (Carpetbagger)Entertainment WeeklyNext MoviePercent correct predictions from the math models*Percent correct predictions from the critics
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Best PictureArgoCorrect!100100
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Lead ActorDaniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)100100
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Lead Actress Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings PlaybookJessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)88100
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Supporting ActorChristoph Waltz (Django Unchained)Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)Tommy Lee JonesRobert De NiroRobert De NiroRobert De NiroTommy Lee Jones380
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Supporting ActressAnne Hathaway (Les Miserables)100100
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Animated Feature-Length FilmBraveNo predictionWreck-It RalphWreck-It RalphWreck-It RaplhWreck-It Ralph1000
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DirectorAng Lee (Life of Pi)Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)Steven SpielbergSteven SpielbergSteven SpielbergSteven Spielberg2550
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Original ScoreLife of PiSkyfallSkyfallNo predictionNo prediction50100
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CinematographyClaudio Miranda (Life of Pi)No predictionSkyfallNo prediction67100
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DocumentarySearching for Sugar ManNo prediction100100
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Overall Percent Correct807083807075807070
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*I counted each of Social Oscars' predictions, critics' and public choice, as half of the model's overall prediction
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