Ripple Valuation Model
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQ
1
2
README.comments
3
[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018 =$0.34
4
[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018 =
DISCOUNT [TOKEN UTILITY VALUE] from [END YEAR]
5
[TOKEN UTILITY VALUE] =
[MONETARY BASE] / [TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]
6
where [MONETARY BASE] =
[ON-CHAIN VOLUME]/[VELOCITY] of XRP tokens
7
- inputs highlighted in blue are assumptions
8
9
[TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]Token Economics
10
Protocol typePrivate
11
Consensus mechanismTrusted validators
12
Total tokens to ever exist100,000,000,000
13
Tokens held by the foundation6,396,164,7196.40%
14
Tokens held in escrow55,000,000,00055.00%
15
Tokens currently in circulation38,597,142,49938.60%
16
Tokens released from escrow to foundation (per month)1,000,000,000
17
Tokens sold into circulation by the foundation (per month, first 5 years)500,000,000
18
Tokens sold into circulation by foundation (per month, after 5 years)250,000,000
19
ASSUMPTIONS:
20
[VELOCITY]15
21
Percent of tokens held as a long term investment - not in circulation60%
22
Decrease in percent of XRP that is held as an investment2%
23
24
Token Distribution20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
25
XRP released at launch38,597,142,499
26
XRP released into circulation from the foundation that year6,000,000,0006,000,000,0006,000,000,0006,000,000,0006,000,000,0003,000,000,0003,000,000,0003,000,000,0003,000,000,0003,000,000,0003,000,000,000
27
XRP in circulation after release from foundation44,597,142,49950,597,142,49956,597,142,49962,597,142,49968,597,142,49971,597,142,49974,597,142,49977,597,142,49980,597,142,49983,597,142,49986,597,142,499
28
% of XRP that is held as investment - not in circulation60%58.00%56.00%54.00%52.00%50.00%48.00%46.00%44.00%42.00%40.00%
29
[TOKENS IN CIRCULATION]17,838,857,00021,250,799,85024,902,742,70028,794,685,55032,926,628,40035,798,571,25038,790,514,09941,902,456,94945,134,399,79948,486,342,64951,958,285,499
30
31
[ON-CHAIN VOLUME]Addressable Market
32
SWIFT 2017 Average Daily Global Transactional Volume$5,000,000,000,000
33
SWIFT 2017 Estimated Annual Global Transactional Volume$1,825,000,000,000,000
34
ASSUMPTIONS:
35
CAGR for Annual Transactions12%
36
% of global SWIFT traffic applicable to XRP20%
37
Base year for the adoption curve2018Adoption curve201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
38
Saturation %2Output0.04%0.05%0.07%0.09%0.12%0.15%0.20%0.26%0.33%0.42%0.53%0.65%
39
Start of fast growth2023% Penetration0.00%0.01%0.03%0.05%0.08%0.12%0.16%0.22%0.30%0.38%0.49%0.61%
40
Take over time15Saturation222222222222
41
42
Network activity20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
43
Annual global transactions2,044,000,000,000,0002,289,280,000,000,0002,563,993,600,000,0002,871,672,832,000,0003,216,273,571,840,0003,602,226,400,460,8004,034,493,568,516,1004,518,632,796,738,0305,060,868,732,346,6005,668,172,980,228,1906,348,353,737,855,570
44
Annual global transactions available to XRP408,800,000,000,000457,856,000,000,000512,798,720,000,000574,334,566,400,000643,254,714,368,000720,445,280,092,161806,898,713,703,220903,726,559,347,6061,012,173,746,469,3201,133,634,596,045,6401,269,670,747,571,110
45
% of transactions facilitated by XRP0.01%0.03%0.05%0.08%0.12%0.16%0.22%0.30%0.38%0.49%0.61%
46
[ON-CHAIN VOLUME] aka GDP facilitated by XRP51,007,264,532132,572,478,214259,526,399,860453,070,039,443742,965,385,4021,170,025,672,4561,788,547,532,8332,667,982,311,7563,892,760,426,5135,558,981,045,9677,767,034,388,431
47
[MONETARY BASE] = GDP facilitated / Velocity3,400,484,3028,838,165,21417,301,759,99130,204,669,29649,531,025,69378,001,711,497119,236,502,189177,865,487,450259,517,361,768370,598,736,398517,802,292,562
48
[TOKEN UTILITY VALUE]$0.19$0.42$0.69$1.05$1.50$2.18$3.07$4.24$5.75$7.64$9.97
49
...and now we can discount the future utility
50
[END YEAR]2028
51
Years between 2018 and [END YEAR]10
52
Discount rate40%
53
[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018$0.34
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Loading...
Main menu