| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
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1 | McDonald's Corporation (MCD) — Intrinsic Value Model | = | Input your own assumptions — Numbers in USD millions (except per share) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | = | Actuals | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Apply to our Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community | = | Estimates | |||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 2026–27 | 2028E+ → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Operating Inputs by Revenue Stream (Growth Assumptions From 2026) | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Implied CAGRs | |||||||||||||||||
6 | Franchised Revenues (Rents & Royalties) Growth | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | ||||||||||||||||
7 | Company-Operated Sales Growth (refranchising 95% → 98% by 2028) | -8.0% | -6.0% | Total Revenue | $25,920 | $26,885 | $27,085 | $27,403 | $27,894 | $28,466 | $29,120 | 1.61% | ||||||||||||||
8 | Other Revenues (Brand Licensing, Tech Fees) Growth | 10.0% | 8.0% | Franchised Revenues (Rents & Royalties) | $15,715 | $16,548 | $17,458 | $18,418 | $19,339 | $20,306 | $21,322 | 5.20% | ||||||||||||||
9 | Franchised Margin after Occupancy Costs | 83.5% | Company-Operated Restaurant Sales | $9,782 | $9,690 | $8,915 | $8,202 | $7,710 | $7,247 | $6,812 | -6.81% | |||||||||||||||
10 | Company-Operated Restaurant Margin | 16.0% | Other Revenues | $423 | $647 | $712 | $783 | $845 | $913 | $986 | 8.80% | |||||||||||||||
11 | Corporate & Other Costs, net, % of Revenue | 14.5% | Operating Margin | 45.19% | 46.10% | 47.22% | 49.27% | 50.84% | 52.35% | 53.77% | ||||||||||||||||
12 | Dividend per share growth per year | 6.0% | Operating Income | $11,712.00 | $12,393.00 | $12,788.34 | $13,501.03 | $14,182.63 | $14,900.73 | $15,657.23 | 4.79% | |||||||||||||||
13 | Conversion Ratio of Operating Income to Net Income | 69% | Franchised Margin (after Occupancy Costs) | $13,179.00 | $13,930.00 | $14,577.55 | $15,379.31 | $16,148.28 | $16,955.69 | $17,803.48 | ||||||||||||||||
14 | Restructuring charges 2026E, after-tax ($m; zero from 2027) | $195 | Company-Operated Restaurant Margin | $1,447.00 | $1,421.00 | $1,426.37 | $1,312.26 | $1,233.52 | $1,159.51 | $1,089.94 | ||||||||||||||||
15 | Other Revenues Contribution | $423.00 | $647.00 | $711.70 | $782.87 | $845.50 | $913.14 | $986.19 | ||||||||||||||||||
16 | Share Inputs | Corporate & Other Costs, net (SG&A, other opex) | ($3,337.00) | ($3,605.00) | ($3,927.27) | ($3,973.41) | ($4,044.67) | ($4,127.61) | ($4,222.38) | |||||||||||||||||
17 | Current Stock Price | $235.00 | Net Income Margin | 31.72% | 31.85% | 31.86% | 34.00% | 35.08% | 36.12% | 37.10% | ||||||||||||||||
18 | Average Annual Share Count Growth/Decline Rate | -1.00% | Net Income | $8,223.00 | $8,563.00 | $8,628.96 | $9,315.71 | $9,786.02 | $10,281.50 | $10,803.49 | 4.76% | |||||||||||||||
19 | Diluted Shares Outstanding (millions) | 721.9 | 716.4 | 709.2 | 702.1 | 695.1 | 688.2 | 681.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
20 | Earnings Per Share | $11.39 | $11.95 | $12.17 | $13.27 | $14.08 | $14.94 | $15.86 | 5.82% | |||||||||||||||||
21 | Summary Stats | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | Implied Revenue CAGR 2025A–2030E | 1.61% | Estimated Returns By Entry Price | |||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Implied Operating Income CAGR 2025A–2030E | 4.79% | Discount Rate | 8.00% | $180.00 | 12.47% | ||||||||||||||||||||
24 | EPS CAGR 2025A–2030E (2026 incl. restructuring) | 5.82% | Margin of Safety Discount | 20% | $200.00 | 10.29% | ||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Average Operating Margin 2026E–2030E | 50.69% | Fair Value (Not Include Margin of Safety) | $223.94 | $220.00 | 8.36% | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | Implied Weighted Average Exit Multiple | 20.75 | $240.00 | 6.62% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | Implied IRR from Current Price (incl. dividends) | 10.14% | $260.00 | 5.06% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Implied IRR from Buy Price (incl. dividends) | 16.70% | $280.00 | 3.63% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | Intrinsic Value Buy Price Target (Margin of Safety) | $179.15 | $300.00 | 2.32% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | Dividend per share ($) | $6.78 | $7.17 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $9.60 | ||||||||||||||||||
32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Range of Exit Multiples Analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | P/E multiple on 2030E EPS | Weighting | Present Equity Value | IRR Inputs | ||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | ——————————————————————— | 12 | 2.5% | $129.51 | Start | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | ||||||||||||||||
36 | 14 | 5.0% | $151.09 | -$235.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
37 | 16 | 12.5% | $172.68 | -$179.15 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
38 | 18 | 17.5% | $194.26 | -$180.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
39 | 20 | 20.0% | $215.85 | -$200.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
40 | 22 | 15.0% | $237.43 | -$220.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
41 | 24 | 10.0% | $259.02 | -$240.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
42 | 26 | 7.5% | $280.60 | -$260.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
43 | 28 | 5.0% | $302.18 | -$280.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
44 | 30 | 2.5% | $323.77 | -$300.00 | $7.60 | $8.06 | $8.54 | $9.05 | $338.64 | |||||||||||||||||
45 | 32 | 2.5% | $345.35 | (Initial investment) | (2026–2029: dividends; 2030: dividend + sale at weighted multiple x 2030E EPS) | |||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Weighting Balance: | 1.000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | (Feel free to adjust the range of multiples and weightings that you think are reasonable, weightings should balance to 1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Perpetual Growth Terminal Value per share | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Terminal EPS | $15.86 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Discount Rate | 8.00% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Terminal Growth | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | TV per share at end of 2030 | $198.22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | PV of TV per share (2025 base, 5 yrs; no interim cash flows) | $134.90 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Implied exit P/E at terminal value (TV / 2030E EPS) | 12.5x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Sources & Notes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | Actuals (FY2024, FY2025): McDonald's Corp. Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 24 Feb 2026), Consolidated Statement of Income. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Franchised Margin = Revenues from franchised restaurants less Franchised restaurants-occupancy expenses (2025: 16,548 − 2,618). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Company-Operated Margin = Sales less Food & paper, Payroll & benefits, Occupancy & other (2025: 9,690 − 3,006 − 2,905 − 2,358). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Corporate & Other Costs = SG&A + other restaurant & other operating expenses, derived as plug to reported Operating Income. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Shares = diluted weighted average (721.9m / 716.4m). EPS $11.39 / $11.95. Dividends declared per share $6.78 / $7.17. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Stock price $232 = approx. close 9 Oct 2026 (NYSE). Update cell C17 before use. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Guidance anchors: 2026 op. margin mid-to-high 40s; 2030 low-to-mid 50s and G&A 1.9% of system sales (Investor Day 23 Sep 2026); | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | franchise mix 95% → ~98% by end-2028 (drives company-operated sales decline); ~$250m restructuring in 2026 (Q2-26 10-Q), taxed at 22%. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Discount rate 8.0% vs. Morningstar cost of equity 7.7% (report 24 Sep 2026). Exit P/E ladder centred on MCD's ~24x 10-yr average forward P/E. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | Yellow = inputs; grey = reported actuals; blue = estimates. Bear/Bull tabs link the stock price to the Base Case tab. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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