Covid-Kerala Mathematical Modelling of Infections V/S Death to plan for capacity building of CCC's

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	P
1	Start Reading Here
2	1. If all of us dont act as one team to contain Covid19, it will attack and overwhelm our healthcare system. We need to flatten the line before that
3	2. We need to flatten the line before that and this mathematical model for Kerala is a template for others states to build their and finally combine to build a National model
4										Covid Mortality Rate
5	Basic Data	%	Numbers	in lakhs		Covid Mortality Rate				Age group	Mortality rate for the group	%of Population in the group
6	Total population	100	33,000,000	330		under 50	0.3	3 in 1000		under 50	0.3	76.35	0.22905		Basic Data
7	under 50	76.35	25,195,500	251.955		50-80	4	40 in 1000		50-80	4	21.92	0.8768		Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
8	50-80	21.92	7,233,600	72.336		above 80	15	150 in 1000		above 80	15	1.62	0.243		2011 Kerala Census Data
9	above 80	1.62	534,600	5.346		Average	6.433333333			Average Covid Mortality Rate			1.34885
10															Mortality Rate
11	2011 Kerala Census Data
12	Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
13	Mortality Rate
14	https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/				We will get 6 months if we slow down the virus by flatenning the curve										Bed avilability - 25,000
15	Infections	Please note that our infection pecentages are assumptions and the model is not predicting the infection rates
16			Lockdown							Assumption				Worst Case
17	Infections	Infected Population (assumption)	1 in 100,000	1 in 10,000	1%	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	90%	100%	Consider 14 isolation cycle
18		Percentage of People	0.0001	0.001	0.01	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.9	1	Find
19		Total Infected (In Lakhs)	0.033	0.33	3.3	33	66	99	132	165	198	231	297	330	[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: 81% are mild infections.
20	Disease Severity	Total Infected (In Numbers)	3300	33000
21	1. Stay At Home	81% are mild infections.	0.02673	0.2673	2.673	26.73	53.46	80.19	106.92	133.65	160.38	187.11	240.57	267.3	14% are severe infections.
22	2. Require hospitalisation	14% are moderate infections	0.00462	0.0462	0.462	4.62	9.24	13.86	18.48	23.1	27.72	32.34	41.58	46.2	[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Only 5% are critical infections.
23	3. ICU	5% are critical infections.	0.00165	0.0165	0.165	1.65	3.3	4.95	6.6	8.25	9.9	11.55	14.85	16.5	[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Mortality rates for those up to age 50 years is only 0.3%, rising to 16% for those over age 80.
24	Low risk	Population under 50	0.0251955	0.251955	2.51955	25.1955	50.391	75.5865	100.782	125.9775	151.173	176.3685	226.7595	251.955	[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: At present, 56 deaths per day due to covid-19.
25	Medium Risk	Population in 50-80	0.0072336	0.072336	0.72336	7.2336	14.4672	21.7008	28.9344	36.168	43.4016	50.6352	65.1024	72.336	[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Death rates per country
26	High Risk	Population above 80	0.0005346	0.005346	0.05346	0.5346	1.0692	1.6038	2.1384	2.673	3.2076	3.7422	4.8114	5.346	Iran- 5%
27															USA- 4%
28	Projected Deaths	Death under 50	8	76	756	7559	15117	22676	30235	37793	45352	52911	68028	75587	China- 3.8%
29		Death under 50-80	29	289	2893	28934	57869	86803	115738	144672	173606	202541	260410	289344	Australia- 3.2%
30		Death above 80	8	80	802	8019	16038	24057	32076	40095	48114	56133	72171	80190	South Korea- 0.7%
31		Total Deaths	45	445	4451	44512	89024	1.33536	1.78049	2.2256	2.67072	3.11585	4.00609	4.45121
32								In Lakhs ->							data modeling course on covid
33	ICU Beds in Kerala	Crisis point will reach when doctors have to prioritise at ICU who lives and who dies in the ventilator.													private hospital - 160 CCU beds
34		Italy's defences has been breached and ventilators are not enough and doctors choose who lives and who dies.
35
36	Total ICU Capacity	437		Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
37	Utilisation %	50%		Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
38	Available	322		Note: This data has to go live in the digital backend along with geo-location so that we know visually where to take patients
39				This ensures that no hospital ICU gets overloaded and we are at maximum efficiency possible.
40	1. Medical Colleges are seperate category with Ventilators
41	2.All other government hospitals comes under Health Services
42	3. Private Hospital are the third category which has ventilators
43
44	2011 Kerala Census Data														does critical infections require ICU beds?
45	Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
46	Age Split	Number of People				%									Get details on special care zone in south koreia
47	00-04	2,453,092				7.34
48	05-09	2,555,112				7.65									Actual numbers can't figured unless we have proper numbers from Italy
49	10-14	2,822,770				8.45									South Korea is doing 15,000 tests per day so they have a better idea of what is happening
50	15-19	2,610,552				7.81									Unless we test for large numbers, we will not be able to get the full picture
51	20-24	2,665,809				7.98
52	25-29	2,604,092				7.8									exact data of actual number of cases and growth rate
53	30-34	2,455,501				7.35									ro value (rate of spread)
54	35-39	2,579,673				7.72
55	40-44	2,412,498				7.22
56	45-49	2,348,530				7.03
57	50-54	1,928,145				5.77
58	55-59	1,742,408				5.22
59	60-64	1,414,671				4.23
60	65-69	1,002,134				3
61	70-74	733,372				2.2
62	75-79	501,367				1.5
63	80+	541,849				1.62
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65	We need population distribution data of Kerala to visualise a map
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