1
2
1. If all of us dont act as one team to contain Covid19, it will attack and overwhelm our healthcare system. We need to flatten the line before that
3
2. We need to flatten the line before that and this mathematical model for Kerala is a template for others states to build their and finally combine to build a National model
4
Covid Mortality Rate
5
Basic Data%Numbersin lakhs
Covid Mortality Rate
Age group
Mortality rate for the group
%of Population in the group
6
Total population10033,000,000330under 500.33 in 1000under 500.376.350.22905Basic Data
7
under 5076.3525,195,500251.95550-80440 in 100050-80421.920.8768Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
8
50-8021.927,233,60072.336above 8015150 in 1000above 80151.620.2432011 Kerala Census Data
9
above 801.62534,6005.346Average6.433333333Average Covid Mortality Rate1.34885
10
Mortality Rate
11
2011 Kerala Census Data
12
Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
13
Mortality Rate
14
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
We will get 6 months if we slow down the virus by flatenning the curve
Bed avilability - 25,000
15
Infections
Please note that our infection pecentages are assumptions and the model is not predicting the infection rates
16
Lockdown
Assumption
Worst Case
17
Infections
Infected Population (assumption)
1 in 100,0001 in 10,0001%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%90%100%Consider 14 isolation cycle
18
Percentage of People0.00010.0010.010.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.91Find
19
Total Infected (In Lakhs)0.0330.333.3336699132165198231297330[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: 81% are mild infections.
20
Disease SeverityTotal Infected (In Numbers)330033000
21
1. Stay At Home81% are mild infections.0.026730.26732.67326.7353.4680.19106.92133.65160.38187.11240.57267.314% are severe infections.
22
2. Require hospitalisation14% are moderate infections0.004620.04620.4624.629.2413.8618.4823.127.7232.3441.5846.2[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Only 5% are critical infections.
23
3. ICU5% are critical infections.0.001650.01650.1651.653.34.956.68.259.911.5514.8516.5
[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Mortality rates for those up to age 50 years is only 0.3%, rising to 16% for those over age 80.
24
Low riskPopulation under 500.02519550.2519552.5195525.195550.39175.5865100.782125.9775151.173176.3685226.7595251.955[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: At present, 56 deaths per day due to covid-19.
25
Medium RiskPopulation in 50-800.00723360.0723360.723367.233614.467221.700828.934436.16843.401650.635265.102472.336[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Death rates per country
26
High RiskPopulation above 800.00053460.0053460.053460.53461.06921.60382.13842.6733.20763.74224.81145.346Iran- 5%
27
USA- 4%
28
Projected DeathsDeath under 5087675675591511722676302353779345352529116802875587China- 3.8%
29
Death under 50-80292892893289345786986803115738144672173606202541260410289344Australia- 3.2%
30
Death above 8088080280191603824057320764009548114561337217180190South Korea- 0.7%
31
Total Deaths 45445445144512890241.335361.780492.22562.670723.115854.006094.45121
32
In Lakhs ->data modeling course on covid
33
ICU Beds in Kerala
Crisis point will reach when doctors have to prioritise at ICU who lives and who dies in the ventilator.
private hospital - 160 CCU beds
34
Italy's defences has been breached and ventilators are not enough and doctors choose who lives and who dies.
35
36
Total ICU Capacity437
Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
37
Utilisation %50%
Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
38
Available322
Note: This data has to go live in the digital backend along with geo-location so that we know visually where to take patients
39
This ensures that no hospital ICU gets overloaded and we are at maximum efficiency possible.
40
1. Medical Colleges are seperate category with Ventilators
41
2.All other government hospitals comes under Health Services
42
3. Private Hospital are the third category which has ventilators
43
44
2011 Kerala Census Datadoes critical infections require ICU beds?
45
Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
46
Age SplitNumber of People% Get details on special care zone in south koreia
47
00-042,453,0927.34
48
05-092,555,1127.65Actual numbers can't figured unless we have proper numbers from Italy
49
10-142,822,7708.45South Korea is doing 15,000 tests per day so they have a better idea of what is happening
50
15-192,610,5527.81Unless we test for large numbers, we will not be able to get the full picture
51
20-242,665,8097.98
52
25-292,604,0927.8exact data of actual number of cases and growth rate
53
54
35-392,579,6737.72
55
40-442,412,4987.22
56
45-492,348,5307.03
57
50-541,928,1455.77
58
55-591,742,4085.22
59
60-641,414,6714.23
60
65-691,002,1343
61
70-74733,3722.2
62
75-79501,3671.5
63
80+541,8491.62
64
65
We need population distribution data of Kerala to visualise a map
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100