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Start Reading Here
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1. If all of us dont act as one team to contain Covid19, it will attack and overwhelm our healthcare system. We need to flatten the line before that
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2. We need to flatten the line before that and this mathematical model for Kerala is a template for others states to build their and finally combine to build a National model
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Covid Mortality Rate
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Basic Data%Numbersin lakhs
Covid Mortality Rate
Age group
Mortality rate for the group
%of Population in the group
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Total population10033,000,000330under 500.33 in 1000under 500.376.350.22905Basic Data
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under 5076.3525,195,500251.95550-80440 in 100050-80421.920.8768Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
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50-8021.927,233,60072.336above 8015150 in 1000above 80151.620.2432011 Kerala Census Data
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above 801.62534,6005.346Average6.433333333Average Covid Mortality Rate1.34885
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Mortality Rate
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2011 Kerala Census Data
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Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
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Mortality Rate
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https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
We will get 6 months if we slow down the virus by flatenning the curve
Bed avilability - 25,000
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Infections
Please note that our infection pecentages are assumptions and the model is not predicting the infection rates
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Lockdown
Assumption
Worst Case
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Infections
Infected Population (assumption)
1 in 100,0001 in 10,0001%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%90%100%Consider 14 isolation cycle
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Percentage of People0.00010.0010.010.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.91Find
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Total Infected (In Lakhs)0.0330.333.3336699132165198231297330[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: 81% are mild infections.
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Disease SeverityTotal Infected (In Numbers)330033000
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1. Stay At Home81% are mild infections.0.026730.26732.67326.7353.4680.19106.92133.65160.38187.11240.57267.314% are severe infections.
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2. Require hospitalisation14% are moderate infections0.004620.04620.4624.629.2413.8618.4823.127.7232.3441.5846.2[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Only 5% are critical infections.
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3. ICU5% are critical infections.0.001650.01650.1651.653.34.956.68.259.911.5514.8516.5
[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Mortality rates for those up to age 50 years is only 0.3%, rising to 16% for those over age 80.
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Low riskPopulation under 500.02519550.2519552.5195525.195550.39175.5865100.782125.9775151.173176.3685226.7595251.955[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: At present, 56 deaths per day due to covid-19.
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Medium RiskPopulation in 50-800.00723360.0723360.723367.233614.467221.700828.934436.16843.401650.635265.102472.336[11:41 PM, 3/14/2020] Sanjay SV: Death rates per country
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High RiskPopulation above 800.00053460.0053460.053460.53461.06921.60382.13842.6733.20763.74224.81145.346Iran- 5%
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USA- 4%
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Projected DeathsDeath under 5087675675591511722676302353779345352529116802875587China- 3.8%
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Death under 50-80292892893289345786986803115738144672173606202541260410289344Australia- 3.2%
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Death above 8088080280191603824057320764009548114561337217180190South Korea- 0.7%
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Total Deaths 45445445144512890241.335361.780492.22562.670723.115854.006094.45121
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In Lakhs ->data modeling course on covid
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ICU Beds in Kerala
Crisis point will reach when doctors have to prioritise at ICU who lives and who dies in the ventilator.
private hospital - 160 CCU beds
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Italy's defences has been breached and ventilators are not enough and doctors choose who lives and who dies.
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Total ICU Capacity437
Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
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Utilisation %50%
Note: We are working to build a state wide digital network to get live data on this capacity
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Available322
Note: This data has to go live in the digital backend along with geo-location so that we know visually where to take patients
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This ensures that no hospital ICU gets overloaded and we are at maximum efficiency possible.
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1. Medical Colleges are seperate category with Ventilators
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2.All other government hospitals comes under Health Services
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3. Private Hospital are the third category which has ventilators
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2011 Kerala Census Data
does critical infections require ICU beds?
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Source (http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-kerala.php)
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Age SplitNumber of People% Get details on special care zone in south koreia
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00-042,453,0927.34
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05-092,555,1127.65Actual numbers can't figured unless we have proper numbers from Italy
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10-142,822,7708.45South Korea is doing 15,000 tests per day so they have a better idea of what is happening
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15-192,610,5527.81Unless we test for large numbers, we will not be able to get the full picture
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20-242,665,8097.98
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25-292,604,0927.8exact data of actual number of cases and growth rate
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30-342,455,5017.35ro value (rate of spread)
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35-392,579,6737.72
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40-442,412,4987.22
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45-492,348,5307.03
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50-541,928,1455.77
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55-591,742,4085.22
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60-641,414,6714.23
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65-691,002,1343
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70-74733,3722.2
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75-79501,3671.5
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80+541,8491.62
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We need population distribution data of Kerala to visualise a map
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