Postal survey flaws
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TimeframeCategoryShort_NameLong_DescripLink 1Link 2
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01 - Pre-VoteLegalityFunding might not be valid$122m from advance fund for "unforeseen" expenditure. Is this unforeseen?https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
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01 - Pre-VoteLegality
Cormann mightn't have authority
Need authority to direct $122m (in addition to valid reasons) - does Cormann have this?http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/same-sex-marriage-legal-challenge-andrew-wilkie-in-melbourne/8798528
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01 - Pre-VoteLegalityABS does stats, not viewsAre opinions on marraige within remit of the ABS? They collect stats, not views or votes.https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbuttonhttps://kategalloway.net/2017/08/09/plebiscite-or-survey/
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01 - Pre-VoteProceduralABS isn't AECThe statistics bureau doesn't have the experience required to do run a nationwide vote like the AEC doeshttps://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
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01 - Pre-VoteSample BiasMoved house after Jul 25Need to be at an address for at least 1mon to register. Can't do that in time for cut-off.http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/australians-who-might-not-be-able-to-vote/8794364
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02 - VoteCounting ErrorNo ID on survey formsNothing to link each form to each voter, so no way of confirming who returned the voting formhttp://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html
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02 - VoteMoralID on survey formsIf user IDS are used to stop fraud, that raises privacy issues https://twitter.com/LiamPomfret/status/895957153277542400https://twitter.com/SalingerPrivacy/status/895957164019167232
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02 - VoteMoralNo legislation before surveyWe won't get to see the legislation that we're voting on before the surveyhttps://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/the-public-wont-see-the-same-sex-marriage-legislation-its?utm_term=.ljavepNVP#.ropRzvKWr
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02 - VoteMoral
Increased abuse / hate of LGBTI people during vote
There will be an increase in abuse, hatred, vilification and discrimination towards the LGBTI community during the vote process
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/4843070/fearful-of-hate-and-apathy/?cs=2452http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/tory-shepherd-antigay-marriage-groups-invoke-the-devil-to-back-up-their-hate-ahead-of-samesex-marriage-plebiscite/news-story/937e1576650e5872c0ded397067dc44a
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02 - VoteProceduralMisleading electors is fineNo laws against misleading people who want to vote in the processhttp://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.htmlhttp://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rules-against-malicious-campaign-material-will-not-apply-to-samesex-marriage-postal-vote-20170809-gxskoj.html
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02 - VoteProceduralHateful material is fineNo laws (though currently, maybe next week) against hateful material during vote processhttp://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-11/same-sex-marriage-campaign-hate-free-bill/8796634
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02 - VoteProceduralVote-buying is fineNo laws against paying somebody for their ballot paper so you can send in two or more votes yourselfhttp://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html
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02 - VoteProcedural
No need for names on materials
No "legal authorisation requirements" - this means hate materials can be sent out without names of who made it http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html
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02 - VoteSample BiasAge discrepancy
Young people are less likely to vote in a postal survey. Young people are also more likely to vote yes. So this survey will skew 'no'.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/postal-plebiscite-australias-biggest.htmlhttp://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2017/08/participation-rates-at-australian-voluntary-postal-ballot-elections.html
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02 - VoteSample BiasYoung people overseasYoung people are more likely to be overseas, and overseas voting is confusinghttps://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/computer-says-no?utm_term=.yhGY9DPX8#.fcmx205mE
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02 - VoteSample BiasOverseas voting systemsPostal systems in other countries may not have reliable postal systems to ensure form deliveryhttps://twitter.com/waltonkate/status/895943632112332800
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02 - VoteSample BiasYoung people move moreYoung people locked out home ownership so move more regularly; increased chance of not getting vote formhttp://junkee.com/marriage-equality-housing-plebiscite/117375
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02 - VoteSample BiasSilent votersThere's a chance silent voters will be excluded from the survey, due to AEC rules on sharing that datahttps://twitter.com/smurray38/status/895608743106236416
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02 - VoteSample Bias
Not secret - voting pressure in families
Kids in religious families living at home may have their forms stolen or be pressured to vote along family lineshttps://twitter.com/Fentonthedragon/status/895978260663644160https://twitter.com/Pyrovik/status/895943496363778049
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02 - VoteSample BiasHomeless people left outHomeless people or couch surfers with no fixed address can't receive a ballothttp://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/australians-who-might-not-be-able-to-vote/8794364
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02 - VoteSample BiasIndigenous people left outIndigenous people in remote locations don't have reliable mail deliveryhttp://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/08/10/fears-indigenous-people-remote-areas-will-be-left-out-postal-plebiscite
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02 - VoteSample Bias
Remote + regional people left out
People in remote locations without access to an AEC location to update enrolment left out of survey samplehttps://twitter.com/Epigrammist/status/895940854409330689
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02 - VoteSample BiasPeople w/ disabilities excludedNo (current) provisions for assistance of people w/ vision issues, disabilities http://www.visionaustralia.org/news/latest-news/news/2017/08/11/australian-marriage-law-postal-plebiscitehttp://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/people-with-disability.htm
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02 - VoteSample Bias
High involvement polls are bad
"It's making you have to physically do something and take it to a post box." http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/worst-type-of-research-you-can-do-apart-from-robopolls-pollsters-rubbish-postal-vote-20170809-gxsboc.html
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02 - VoteSample Bias
Voluntary polls aren't representative
People who choose to participate don't represent the entire populationhttps://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/young-voters-postal-plebiscite?utm_term=.biZXL97vQ#.ji8olw7Br
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03 - Post-VoteMoralUnbinding resultThe government is not bound to vote along with the outcome of the surveyhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/27/ditch-the-plebiscite-postal-vote-idea-lets-decide-on-marriage-equality-by-instagramhttps://twitter.com/katgallow/status/895968614863347712
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03 - Post-VoteMoralABS Scope screpABS will now be empowered to collect compulsory info on citizen's views and opinions in future surveyshttps://twitter.com/SalingerPrivacy/status/895994580805402624
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03 - Post-VoteMoralHave a free vote instead
The option of a free vote in parliament exists, but isn't taken up, despite the fact it'd avoid all of the flaws of this survey
https://theconversation.com/explainer-with-no-free-vote-for-now-where-next-for-marriage-equality-82156
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03 - Post-VoteProceduralNo process to challengeThere's no legal process through which the accuracy of the result can be challengedhttp://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/electoral-process-but-not-as-we-know-it.html
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03 - Post-VoteProceduralWeightedThe results from the survey won't be weighted by the ABS, to correc the demographic skew in a voluntary postal votehttps://twitter.com/niltiac/status/895212425884057601
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