CBB 2020 Model Tracker
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RISKNETROIWLPWIN %AVG PODDSEDGE
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All plays217.9815.176.96%162156250.94%51.00%-104-0.07%
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Conference play
178.9520.9611.71%9974257.14%50.89%-1046.25%
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What is this?
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This is a Google Sheet that tracks my CBB model plays.
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How do I get the model plays?
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Model plays are available to purchase on my website
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How does it work?
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The model pulls in various data points and gives each of the 353 teams a rating I call "Expected Points Added". This metric measures how many points a team would gain or lose on a neutral court against an average team.
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How are model plays determined?
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For each matchup, each team's EPA and home court advantage is combined to spit out a model spread which is then compared to the Vegas line. Any disagreement of three points or more becomes a model play.
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What book do you use?
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I am primarily using Nitrogen, 5Dimes, and BetOnline.
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Why are somes plays 0.25 / 0.50 / 0.75 units?
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I chose to start the season with 0.25u plays as I expected the non-conference games to be a little rough with the model. The plan is to scale up to full unit plays once conference play is fully underway.
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