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Income Statement Items
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All numbers in millionsHistoricalProjections
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Q12023AQ22023AQ32023AQ42023AFY2023AQ12024AQ22024AQ32024AQ42024AFY2024Q12025AQ22025AQ32025AQ42025AFY2025Q12026Q22026Q32026Q42026FY2026Q12027Q22027Q32027Q42027FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
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Revenue $ 2,035 $ 1,887 $ 1,860 $ 1,602 $ 7,384 $ 1,454 $ 1,555 $ 1,655 $ 1,887 $ 6,551 $ 2,168 $ 2,325 $ 2,160 $ 2,444 $ 9,097 $ 2,558 $ 2,707 $ 2,890 $ 3,109 $ 11,265 $ 3,271 $ 3,436 $ 3,637 $ 3,843 $ 14,185 $ 17,207 $ 20,226 $ 23,531
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Mass Capacity (HDD) $ 1,560 $ 1,455 $ 1,560 $ 1,125 $ 5,700 $ 1,185 $ 1,245 $ 1,320 $ 1,560 $ 5,310 $ 1,792 $ 1,960 $ 1,862 $ 2,114 $ 7,728 $ 2,147 $ 2,266 $ 2,419 $ 2,607 $ 9,438 $ 2,736 $ 2,868 $ 3,036 $ 3,208 $ 11,848 $ 14,279 $ 16,628 $ 19,198
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Legacy (HDD) $ 210 $ 240 $ 225 $ 240 $ 915 $ 165 $ 180 $ 165 $ 150 $ 660 $ 140 $ 154 $ 154 $ 154 $ 602 $ 143 $ 139 $ 135 $ 130 $ 547 $ 126 $ 121 $ 116 $ 111 $ 474 $ 421 $ 386 $ 346
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Others (Non-HDD) $ 265 $ 192 $ 75 $ 237 $ 769 $ 104 $ 130 $ 170 $ 177 $ 581 $ 236 $ 211 $ 144 $ 176 $ 767 $ 268 $ 302 $ 337 $ 372 $ 1,280 $ 409 $ 446 $ 484 $ 524 $ 1,863 $ 2,506 $ 3,212 $ 3,987
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Cost of Revenues $ 1,553 $ 1,641 $ 1,541 1,298 $ 6,033 $ 1,305 $ 1,193 $ 1,230 $ 1,287 $ 5,015 $ 1,454 $ 1,513 $ 1,400 $ 1,530 $ 5,897 $ 1,791 $ 1,895 $ 2,023 $ 2,176 $ 7,885 $ 2,453 $ 2,577 $ 2,728 $ 2,882 $ 10,639 $ 13,249 $ 15,169 $ 16,472
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Gross profit $ 482 $ 246 $ 319 $ 304 $ 1,351 $ 149 $ 362 $ 425 $ 600 $ 1,536 $ 714 $ 812 $ 760 $ 914 $ 3,200 $ 767 $ 812 $ 867 $ 933 $ 3,379 $ 818 $ 859 $ 909 $ 961 $ 3,546 $ 3,958 $ 5,056 $ 7,059
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Total Operating Expenses $ 366 $ 325 $ 314 $ 286 $ 1,291 $ 276 $ 269 $ 280 $ 289 $ 1,114 $ 310 $ 323 $ 319 $ 333 $ 1,285 $ 370 $ 370 $ 370 $ 370 $ 1,480 $ 370 $ 370 $ 370 $ 370 $ 1,480 $ 1,480 $ 1,480 $ 1,480
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SG&A $ 129 $ 125 $ 123 $ 114 $ 491 $ 105 $ 108 $ 116 $ 131 $ 460 $ 129 $ 139 $ 139 $ 154 $ 561
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R&D $ 234 $ 200 $ 191 $ 172 $ 797 $ 171 $ 161 $ 164 $ 158 $ 654 $ 181 $ 184 $ 180 $ 179 $ 724
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D&A $ 3 $ - $ - $ - $ 3 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
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Income from Operations $ 116 $ (79) $ 5 $ 18 $ 60 $ (127) $ 93 $ 145 $ 311 $ 422 $ 404 $ 489 $ 441 $ 581 $ 1,915 $ 397 $ 442 $ 497 $ 563 $ 1,899 $ 448 $ 489 $ 539 $ 591 $ 2,066 $ 2,478 $ 3,576 $ 5,579
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Interest Expense $ 71 $ 77 $ 81 $ 84 $ 313 $ 84 $ 84 $ 82 $ 82 $ 332 $ 85 $ 84 $ 77 $ 75 $ 321 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 300 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 75 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300
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Interest Income $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 6 $ 10 $ 2 $ 3 $ 3 $ 111 $ 119 $ 7 $ 8 $ 4 $ 6 $ 25 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 20 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20
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Irregular (income)/expense $ 9 $ (123) $ 317 $ 9 $ 212 $ (73) $ (31) $ 2 $ (212) $ (314) $ 1 $ 1 $ 14 $ 8 $ 24 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 80 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 80 $ 80 $ 80 $ 80
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Other income/(expense), net $ (10) $ (6) $ (9) $ (16) $ (41) $ (11) $ (47) $ (6) $ (14) $ (78) $ (9) $ (62) $ 1 $ (12) $ (82) $ (25) $ (25) $ (25) $ (25) $ (100) $ (25) $ (25) $ (25) $ (25) $ (100) $ (100) $ (100) $ (100)
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Income before taxes $ 27 $ (38) $ (400) $ (85) $ (496) $ (147) $ (4) $ 58 $ 538 $ 445 $ 316 $ 350 $ 355 $ 492 $ 1,513 $ 282 $ 327 $ 382 $ 448 $ 1,440 $ 333 $ 374 $ 424 $ 476 $ 1,607 $ 2,018 $ 3,117 $ 5,120
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Income Tax expense(benefit) $ (2) $ (5)337 $ 33 371533 $ 25 $ 110 $ 11 $ 14 $ 15 $ 4 $ 44 $ 14 $ 16 $ 19 $ 22 $ 72 $ 17 $ 19 $ 21 $ 24 $ 80 $ 101 $ 156 $ 256
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Net Income $ 29 $ (33) $ (433) $ (92) $ (529) $ (184) $ (19) $ 25 $ 513 $ 335 $ 305 $ 336 $ 340 $ 488 $ 1,469 $ 268 $ 311 $ 363 $ 425 $ 1,368 $ 316 $ 355 $ 403 $ 452 $ 1,526 $ 1,917 $ 2,961 $ 4,864
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Assumptions and MetricsHistoricalProjections
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Q12023AQ22023AQ32023AQ42023AFY2023AQ12024AQ22024AQ32024AQ42024AFY2024Q12025AQ22025AQ32025AQ42025AFY2025Q12026Q22026Q32026Q42026FY2026Q12027Q22027Q32027Q42027FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
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HDD Exabytes Shipped by Market
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Mass Capacity1049710475380798388104354128140133151552143151161174629195205217229846102011881371
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Legacy1416151661111211104410111111431099936998834302825
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Total HDDs11811311991441909599114398138151144162595153160170182666204214225237880105012151396
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HDD price per Exabyte15151515151515151515141414141415151515151414141414141414
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TAM (Hardware Storage) $ 50,808 $ 51,490 $ 52,181 $ 52,882 $ 52,882 $ 53,592 $ 54,312 $ 55,041 $ 55,780 $ 55,780 $ 56,529 $ 57,288 $ 58,057 $ 58,837 $ 58,837 $ 59,627 $ 60,427 $ 61,239 $ 62,061 $ 62,061 $ 62,894 $ 63,739 $ 64,595 $ 65,462 $ 65,462 $ 69,049 $ 72,833 $ 76,824
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TAM growth rate QoQ (Annual CAGR is 5.48% )
0.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.01340.05480.05480.05480.0548
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TAM Penetration by Mass Capacity3.07%2.83%2.99%2.13%10.78%2.21%2.29%2.40%2.80%9.52%3.17%3.42%3.21%3.59%13.13%3.60%3.75%3.95%4.20%15.21%4.35%4.50%4.70%4.90%18.10%20.68%22.83%24.99%
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TAM Penetration by Legacy0.41%0.47%0.43%0.45%1.73%0.31%0.33%0.30%0.27%1.18%0.25%0.27%0.27%0.26%1.02%0.24%0.23%0.22%0.21%0.88%0.20%0.19%0.18%0.17%0.72%0.61%0.53%0.45%
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TAM Penetration by Others0.52%0.37%0.14%0.45%1.45%0.19%0.24%0.31%0.32%1.04%0.42%0.37%0.25%0.30%1.30%0.45%0.50%0.55%0.60%2.06%0.65%0.70%0.75%0.80%2.85%3.63%4.41%5.19%
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Revenue YoY Growth-7.27%-1.43%-13.87%-9.24%6.95%6.43%14.02%-11.28%14.89%7.24%-7.10%13.15%38.86%17.99%16.44%33.82%27.22%23.83%27.85%26.91%25.82%23.59%25.93%21.30%17.54%16.34%
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Cost of Revenues (Margin %)76.31%86.96%82.85%81.02%81.70%89.75%76.72%74.32%68.20%76.55%67.07%65.08%64.81%62.60%64.82%70.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%75.00%75.00%75.00%75.00%75.00%77.00%75%70%
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Gross Profit Margin23.69%13.04%17.15%18.98%18.30%10.25%23.28%25.68%31.80%23.45%32.93%34.92%35.19%37.40%35.18%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%23.00%25.00%30.00%
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Operating Expense Margins17.99%17.22%16.88%17.85%17.48%18.98%17.30%16.92%15.32%17.01%14.30%13.89%14.77%13.63%14.13%14.464%13.668%12.801%11.900%13.138%11.313%10.770%10.174%9.629%10.433%8.601%7.317%6.289%
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Operating Margin5.70%-4.19%0.27%1.12%0.81%-8.73%5.98%8.76%16.48%6.44%18.63%21.03%20.42%23.77%21.05%15.54%16.33%17.20%18.10%16.86%13.69%14.23%14.83%15.37%14.57%14.40%17.68%23.71%
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Net Profit Margin1%-2%-23%-6%-7%-13%-1%2%27%5%14%14%16%20%16%10%11%13%14%12%10%10%11%12%11%11%15%21%
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Interest Expense of LT Debt1.26%1.43%1.67%1.56%5.81%1.48%1.48%1.58%1.58%6.39%1.64%1.62%1.50%1.50%6.43%1.50%1.50%1.50%1.50%6.00%1.50%1.50%1.50%1.50%6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%
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LT Debt will stay same $ 5,613 $ 5,393 $ 4,840 $ 5,388 $ 5,388 $ 5,666 $ 5,669 $ 5,192 $ 5,195 $ 5,195 $ 5,197 $ 5,200 $ 5,146 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995
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Interest Income will remain same $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 6 $ 10 $ 2 $ 3 $ 3 $ 111 $ 119 $ 7 $ 8 $ 4 $ 6 $ 25 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20
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Tax Rate-7.41%13.16%-8.25%-8.24%-6.65%-25.17%-375.00%56.90%4.65%24.72%3.48%4.00%4.23%0.81%2.91%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%
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Cash (FY2025A)29,943
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Share Price (12/5/2025) $ 278.79
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Shares Outstanding218
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Balance Sheet Items
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All numbers in millionsHistoricalProjections
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Q12023AQ22023AQ32023AQ42023AFY2023AQ12024AQ22024AQ32024AQ42024AFY2024Q12025AQ22025AQ32025AQ42025AFY2025Q12026Q22026Q32026Q42026FY2026Q12027Q22027Q32027Q42027FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
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ST Debt $ 636 $ 636 $ 1,118 $ 63 $ 63 $ - $ - $ 479 $ 479 $ 479 $ 479 47900 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
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LT Debt $ 5,613 $ 5,393 $ 4,840 $ 5,388 $ 5,388 $ 5,666 $ 5,669 $ 5,192 $ 5,195 $ 5,195 $ 5,197 5,2005,146 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995 $ 4,995
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Net Working Capital $ 602 $ 356 $ (42) $ 313 $ 313 $ 163 $ 99 $ (447) $ 233 $ 233 $ 447 $ 693 $ 870 $ 1,005 $ 1,005 $ 425 $ 450 $ 481 $ 517 $ 1,873 $ 544 $ 571 $ 605 $ 639 $ 2,358 $ 2,861 $ 3,363 $ 3,912
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NWC/Sales29.58%18.87%-2.26%19.54%4.24%11.21%6.37%-27.01%12.35%3.56%20.62%29.81%40.28%41.12%41.12%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%16.63%
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Change in NWC YoY $ (80) $ 772 $ 868 $ 486 $ 502 $ 502 $ 550
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Cash Flow Statement Items
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All numbers in millionsHistoricalProjections
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Q12023AQ22023AQ32023AQ42023AFY2023AQ12024AQ22024AQ32024AQ42024AFY2024Q12025AQ22025AQ32025AQ42025AFY2025Q12026Q22026Q32026Q42026FY2026Q12027Q22027Q32027Q42027FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030
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Capital Expenditures $ 133 79 $ 54 $ 50 $ 316 $ 70 $ 70 $ 60 $ 54 $ 254 $ 68 $ 71 $ 43 $ 83 $ 265 $ 94 $ 94 $ 100 $ 108 $ 395 $ 113 $ 115 $ 119 $ 125 $ 466 $ 559 $ 659 $ 769
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Capex/Sales6.54%4.19%2.90%3.12%4.28%4.81%4.50%3.63%2.86%3.88%3.14%3.05%1.99%3.40%2.91%3.68%3.49%3.44%3.48%3.50%3.45%3.36%3.28%3.26%3.29%3.25%3.26%3.27%
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D&A $ 135 148 $ 126 $ 104 $ 513 $ 76 $ 62 $ 63 $ 63 $ 264 $ 64 $ 63 $ 63 $ 61 $ 251 $ 118 $ 121 $ 122 $ 126 $ 439 $ 121 $ 124 $ 130 $ 137 $ 506 $ 609 $ 723 $ 855
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D&A/Sales6.63%7.84%6.77%6.49%6.95%5.23%3.99%3.81%3.34%4.03%2.95%2.71%2.92%2.50%2.76%4.59%4.46%4.23%4.06%3.90%3.70%3.60%3.57%3.55%3.57%3.54%3.58%3.63%
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Notes
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TAM Source:
https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/hardware-storage-market-32907
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