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Inputs to modelProposed valueValue used inThis model, updated on 5/26/26, allows to (1) predict the Town's budget deficit once all MBTA units are occupied, and (2) explore how increasing the taxes paid by rental apartments (now only 36% of what single-family houses of the same size pay) would reduce that deficit.

All $s are as of May 2026. The model assumes that all MBTA units are occupied instantly now, so as to avoid having to deal with inflation. A more detailed year-by-year model could be developed, similar to this one, which should also include Special Residential Developments (or SRDs, not included here).

Values for all input variables are proposed in column B, which the user can override in the green cells in column A by entering values of her/his choice. The model uses the value entered by the user, or if none is entered, the proposed value (as shown in column E).

Using the proposed values, 4,983 new MBTA units will exist in Lexington in 8-10 years, 78% of them rental apartments and 22% condos. Condos generate new students in our schools, not because new students will live in those condos (0 assumed by this model) but because some buyers of the new market rate MBTA condos will be Lexingtonians whose vacated houses will be sold or rented to people whose children will attend our schools.

At the currently low assessment of rental apartments (36% of the assessment of a house of the same size), and correcting for size (new apartments will be smaller than existing ones, but newer, so assessed higher than the current older apartments), the Town deficit will be about $39 million annually. If the 36% rises (via changes in how rental apartment complexes are assessed) to 85%, that annual deficit would drop to $24 million.

So raising the 36% to 85% is worth $15 million annually to the Town if that is accomplished before MBTA rental apartments enter the tax base, therefore do so as "new growth" at 85% instead of the current 36%. Tab 5 summarizes other scenarios for total number of MBTA dwellings built, and % of those that are rental apartments.

(Model prepared by Patrick Mehr, 781-367-2229, patrick.mehr@gmail.com)
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User-chosen valueas of 5/26/26What the value describesSource for proposed valuecalculations
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43.85Acreage still to be developed from 8-year freezesTab 3 of this Excel, cell E3843.85
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80
Acreage still to be developed post March 2025 Special Town Meeting
80
5
6
40# MBTA units per acre from remaining 8-year freezes
from below (Calculation of ultimate # of MBTA units in 8-10 years)
40
7
20# MBTA units per acre in post March 2025 acreage
tighter dimensional limits imposed by March 2025 Special Town Meeting
20
8
9
4,983# new MBTA units
from below (Calculation of ultimate # of MBTA units in 8-10 years)
4,983
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78%% that will be rental units
from below (Calculation of ultimate # of MBTA units in 8-10 years)
78%
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12
57%% of market rate condo buyers downsizing from Lexington89 Bedford St sales broker as of 5/26/26, for market rate condos57%
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14
80%
% of downsizers' houses occupied by families with 1 kid or more
"guess" as no data available yet80%
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120%increase in assessment/sq ft of rentals because newer"guess" as no data available yet120%
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120%increase in assessment/sq ft of condos because newer"guess" as no data available yet120%
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18
45%% of rentals that are 1-bedroomTab 4 of this Excel, cell C2245%
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43%% of rentals that are 2-bedroomTab 4 of this Excel, cell E2243%
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12%% of rentals that are 3-bedroomTab 4 of this Excel, cell G2212%
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0.155# students per 1-bedroom rental
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sRqKtMA5-1gXzKvfgzd1nFYRp2xQgkE65mTLpsPZ3C8/edit?usp=sharing
0.155
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0.760# students per 2-bedroom rental
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sRqKtMA5-1gXzKvfgzd1nFYRp2xQgkE65mTLpsPZ3C8/edit?usp=sharing
0.760
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0.913# students per 3-bedroom rental
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sRqKtMA5-1gXzKvfgzd1nFYRp2xQgkE65mTLpsPZ3C8/edit?usp=sharing
0.913
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Model results
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1.636
# students/single-family house with at least 1 student in the house
2nd table, page 30 of https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2sk2miRGFQudDdkSGJYZGstTDA/view?usp=sharing&resourcekey=0-n1G9Nf4HNLyUpx-6_x4szA,
1.636
Once MBTA units are all occupied
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New annual Town expenses:
-1
new students from ~ 12,000 existing dwellings
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-1
change in # students before any new MBTA dwellings ar built
6,486 students projected in FY27 (per LPS budget https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LRZf817soJ4T3Y4gLUDO7o4Uqe43ZK_ynSCxo9dME3A/edit?usp=sharing FY27, page 135) vs. 6,487 actual students in FY26
-11,362
new students from new MBTA rental apartments
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686new students from houses freed
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$28,990annual additional $ cost to educate 1 student
from below (Calculation of School costs (Line 1100 & shared expenses) and determination of fixed and variable (by # students) portions of those total costs)
$28,990
by Lexingtonians downsizing into MBTA condos
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2,047
new students once all MBTA units are occupied
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69%new MBTA rental unit avg size as % of current rentals' sizeTab 4 of this Excel, cell K3069%
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104%new MBTA condos avg size as % of current condos' sizeTab 4 of this Excel, cell K34104%$59,333,533annual additional school costs
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$2,717,003annual additional municipal costs
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$604 assessment/sq ft of single-family housesTab 2 of this Excel, cell AC4$604
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91%% assessment/sq ft of condos vs. single-family housesTab 2 of this Excel, cell AF391%$62,050,537total new annual Town costs
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36%
% assessment/sq ft of rental apartments vs. single-family houses
Tab 2 of this Excel, cell AF236%
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New annual Town revenues:
$12,194,977new annual taxes from MBTA condos
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20%% tax paid by affordable condos vs. market rate condos
https://lexingtonma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/16458/The-Lex-93-Bedford-Street---Flyer
20%$10,832,482
new annual taxes from MBTA rental units
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$12.31 FY26 residential tax rate ($/$1,000)https://www.lexingtonma.gov/526/Tax-Rates$12.31 $23,027,459
new annual taxes from all MBTA units
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$545 annual additional municipal $ cost per new MBTA unit
Fougère report, table 23 page 32 for 1,117 MBTA units (https://www.lexingtonma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/14350/Lexington-Residential-Impact-Report-April-2025?bidId=)
$545
Annual Town budget deficit:
-$39,023,078
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Calculation of ultimate # of MBTA units in 8-10 yearsPlanning Board# inclu-##
# units/
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AddressstatusAcres# unitssionarycondosrentalsacrePer MBTA zoningStatus
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5-7 Piper Road
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
1.584064025original 227 acres
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89 Bedford Street (now #91 & 93)
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
1.593043019original 227 acresBuilding Permit Issued Sept. 2024
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231 Bedford Street
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.3270722original 227 acres
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331 Concord Avenue
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
6.211872818730original 227 acres
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17 Hartwell Avenue
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
5.253124731259original 227 acresBuilding Permit Issued April 10, 2025
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217-241 Massachusetts Avenue (now #231)
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.714464462original 227 acresBuilding permit Issued February 2, 2026
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3,4,5 Militia Drive
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
4.502924429265original 227 acresBuilding Permit submission in progress
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185, 187-189 Bedford Street
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.532532547original 227 acres
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7 Hartwell Avenue
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
1.611302013081original 227 acresBuilding permit issued April 21, 2026
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952 Waltham Street
Approved per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.5780814original 227 acres
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16 Clarke Street
Before HDC per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.9349749538-year freezenext HDC meeting June 4, 2026
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475 Bedford Street
Submitted per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
9.0015022150178-year freeze
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131 Hartwell Avenue
Submitted per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
5.0029044290588-year freeze
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419 Marrett Rd
Submitted per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.63909148-year freeze
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439 Marrett Rd
Submitted per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
0.5613113238-year freeze
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80 Bedford St
Submitted per https://www.lexingtonma.gov/1496/MBTA-Communities-Zoning
1.1631431278-year freeze
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Total:40.141,6172293501,26740
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condos and rentals as % of total from above:
22%78%
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 - 8-year freezes (same density as known projects)43.85acres at40units/acre =1,766
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 - post March 2025 Special Town Meeting80.00acres at20units/acre =1,600
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Total units expected:
4,983
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of which:3,905
rentals
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and:1,079
condos
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Calculation of School costs (Line 1100 & shared expenses) and determination of fixed and variable (by # students) portions of those total costs
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Source: pp. 27-30 of 250, "Budget Overview" in FY27 white budget book https://www.lexingtonma.gov/DocumentCenter/View/16149/FY2027-White-Book-1232026?bidId=
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EstimatedSCHOOLS'Of whichand variable
How can a more robust separation SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL
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ProgramElement DescriptionFY2027 Recommended
SCHOOLS' share
share ($s)fixedby # students
than this orange estimation be determined?
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1000: Education
1100 Lexington Public Schools$151,729,248100%$151,729,248$18,666,625$133,062,623all SCHOOLS
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1000: Education
1200 Regional High School$4,149,1880%$0
exclude, since new MBTA dwellings won't directly affect Lexington's contribution to Minuteman Tech
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2000: Shared2110 Contributory Retirement$12,300,04210%$1,168,504$1,168,504
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known; estimate from AC member Alan Levine
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2000: Shared2130 Employee Benefits$44,371,63885%$37,715,892$37,715,892
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known employee by employee
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2000: Shared2140 Unemployment$200,00085%$170,000$170,000
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2000: Shared2150 Workers' Comp.$500,00085%$425,000$425,000
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2000: Shared2210 Property & Liability Insurance$1,453,54280%$1,162,834$1,162,834
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known building by building
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2000: Shared2220 Uninsured Losses$200,00080%$160,000$160,000
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2000: Shared2310 Solar Producer Payments$390,0000%$0
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2000: Shared2410 Principal on Long Term Debt$4,162,30085%$3,537,955$3,537,955
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known based on what each bond covers
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2000: Shared2420 Interest on Long Term Debt$1,372,46285%$1,166,593$1,166,593
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known based on what each bond covers
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2000: Shared2430 Principal & Interest Temporary Debt$740,05385%$629,045$629,045
SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL should be known based on what each bond covers
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2000: Shared2510 Reserve Fund$1,000,00085%$850,000$850,000
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2000: Shared2600 Facilities$15,530,14285%$13,200,621$13,200,621
Mike Cronin should know SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL building by building
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2000: Shared3450 Refuse & Recycle Collection$109,24485%$92,857$92,857
Mike Cronin should know SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL building by building
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3000: DPW3100-3500 DPW Personal Services$5,669,36730%$1,700,810$1,700,810
Dave Pinsonneault should know or can estimate SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL (incl. streets)
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3000: DPW3100-3500 DPW Expenses$9,071,27230%$2,721,382$2,721,382
Dave Pinsonneault should know or can estimate SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL (incl. streets)
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4000: Public Safety
4100 Law Enforcement Personal Services$8,412,7855%$420,639$420,639
SCHOOLS include only officer(s) assigned to schools
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4000: Public Safety
4100 Law Enforcement Expenses$1,288,6885%$64,434$64,434
SCHOOLS include only officer(s) assigned to schools
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6000: Human Svcs
6100-6200 Human Svcs Personal Services$837,2165%$41,861$41,861
estimate SCHOOLS' share, if any (maybe all HR handled by LPS in line 1100?)
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6000: Human Svcs
6100-6200 Human Svcs Expenses$991,6345%$49,582$49,582
estimate SCHOOLS' share, if any (maybe all HR handled by LPS in line 1100?)
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6000: Human Svcs
6500 Health Personal Services$477,0065%$23,850$23,850
estimate SCHOOLS' share, if any (maybe all HR handled by LPS in line 1100?)
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6000: Human Svcs
6500 Health Expenses$83,0005%$4,150$4,150
estimate SCHOOLS' share, if any (maybe all HR handled by LPS in line 1100?)
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8000: Gen Govt
8400 Finance Personal Services$1,798,64510%$179,865$179,865
Carolyn Kosnoff should know or can estimate SCHOOLS vs. MUNICIPAL