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Talk on podDate madeDate ClosedWinnerBetChris Wins ifBrian wins ifPaid?
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5-Jan-202031-Dec-2020Chris!Covid infection fatality rate as calculated by WHO numbersIFR >0.75%IFR < 0.75%Yes!Covid infection fatality rate as calculated by WHO numbers before 31 Dec 2020?
Brian: IFR < 0.75%
Chris: IFR >0.75%
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22-Oct-20201-Feb-2021Brian!Highest single day of infections in the NSW Christmas Covid wave>70 infections a day
< 70 infections/day
YesHighest single day of infections in the NSW Christmas Covid wave before 01 Feb 2021?
Brian: < 70 infections/day
Chris: >70 infections a day
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6-Feb-20206-Feb-2021Brian!Exchange rate of AUD/USD<80c USD for 1AUD
>= 80c USD for 1AUD
YesExchange rate of AUD/USD before 06 Feb 2021?
Brian: >= 80c USD for 1AUD
Chris: <80c USD for 1AUD
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11-Jul-19051-Jan-2030Mars Petcare continues to market ADVANCE petfood in AustraliaMars still selling ADVANCE
Mars no longer selling ADVANCE
Mars Petcare continues to market ADVANCE petfood in Australia before 01 Jan 2030?
Brian: Mars no longer selling ADVANCE
Chris: Mars still selling ADVANCE
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28-Dec-202028-Feb-2021Chris!Number of COVID vaccinations in February in Australia>=100 vaccinations
<100 vaccinations
YesNumber of COVID vaccinations in February in Australia before 28 Feb 2021?
Brian: <100 vaccinations
Chris: >=100 vaccinations
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3-Jan-20211-Feb-2022Australian inflation rate during 2021 measured by a single quarter according to RBA statistics>=3.5% inflation rate
<3.5% inflation rate
yesAustralian inflation rate during 2021 measured by a single quarter according to RBA statistics before 01 Feb 2022?
Brian: <3.5% inflation rate
Chris: >=3.5% inflation rate
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1-Oct-202124-Jan-2021Chris!Number of people who have reviewed our podcast on iTunes>=1 review on itunes
0 reviews on iTunes
YesNumber of people who have reviewed our podcast on iTunes before 24 Jan 2021?
Brian: 0 reviews on iTunes
Chris: >=1 review on itunes
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talky talk17-Jan-202130-Sep-2021People who worked from home a majority of days from home for the past four weeks according to ABS statistics>=18%<18%People who worked from home a majority of days from home for the past four weeks according to ABS statistics before 30 Sep 2021?Brian: <18%Chris: >=18%
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24-Jan-202124-Jan-2022Brian!Astral Codex 10 position on the "technology" leaderboards on substackStill the number 1 in technology, or if he was knocked off by any of the current top 5 (the diff, exponential view, platformer, insight)
A newcomer takes Scott off his perch
YesAstral Codex 10 position on the "technology" leaderboards on substack before 24 Jan 2022?
Brian: A newcomer takes Scott off his perch
Chris: Still the number 1 in technology, or if he was knocked off by any of the current top 5 (the diff, exponential view, platformer, insight)
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talky talk31-Jan-20211-Jul-2022Will google block search in Australia (in response to the news laws)YesNoWill google block search in Australia (in response to the news laws) before 01 Jul 2022?Brian: NoChris: Yes
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7-Feb-202131-Dec-2029Will a new box office record (in nominal dollars) be set before the decade endsNoYesWill a new box office record (in nominal dollars) be set before the decade ends before 31 Dec 2029?Brian: YesChris: No
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14-Feb-202113-Feb-2026Will any non-TSMC manufactured chip top the "PassMark software CPU power chartYesNoWill any non-TSMC manufactured chip top the "PassMark software CPU power chart before 13 Feb 2026?Brian: NoChris: Yes
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talky talk21-Feb-20211-Jul-2022The level of dropoff between the first day of Diablo II resurrectued (measured at 1pm AEST) to the first day of the 3rd ladder reset (~9 months later)>95% reduction in players
<95% reduction in players
The level of dropoff between the first day of Diablo II resurrectued (measured at 1pm AEST) to the first day of the 3rd ladder reset (~9 months later) before 01 Jul 2022?
Brian: <95% reduction in players
Chris: >95% reduction in players
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28-Feb-202131-Dec-2029Will any G20 Nation enact a UBI prior to 2030 (to be adjudicated by Patron)YesNoWill any G20 Nation enact a UBI prior to 2030 (to be adjudicated by Patron) before 31 Dec 2029?Brian: NoChris: Yes
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talky talk7-Mar-202131-Dec-2021ChrisWhat percentage of Australian's will be vaccinated by COVIDMore than 75% are vaccinated
Less than 75% are vaccinated
What percentage of Australian's will be vaccinated by COVID before 31 Dec 2021?
Brian: Less than 75% are vaccinated
Chris: More than 75% are vaccinated
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talky talk14-Mar-202131-Mar-2024Will Australian interest rates riseInterest rates have risen
Interest rates have not risen
Will Australian interest rates rise before 31 Mar 2024?
Brian: Interest rates have not risen
Chris: Interest rates have risen
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talky talk21-Mar-202111-Apr-2021ChrisHow many people will vote on our coffee bet sheet8 or fewermore than 8How many people will vote on our coffee bet sheet before 11 Apr 2021?
Brian: more than 8
Chris: 8 or fewer
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talky talk28-Mar-202131-Dec-2021ChrisFederal Minimum wage in the USA<12.5>=12.5
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8-Apr-202131-Dec-2035USA Birth RateLower than Australia's
Higher than Australia's
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talky talk18-Apr-20212-May-2021ChrisNumber of affix episodes on youtubetwo or moreless than two
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talky talk24-Apr-202131-Dec-2021BrianWill Porsche Cayman be cheaper according to a complicated algorithm that Chris devisesYesNo
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6-May-202131-Dec-2035Will Brian be able to take a self-driving car from Albury to MelbourneYesNo
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talky talk9-May-202130-Mar-2022ChrisWill 25th percentile wage inflation be >5.5% in Q1 2022YesNo
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16-May-202131-Dec-2027Will the Australian grid be >30% renewable during 2027YesNo
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29-May-202131-Dec-2050Will the last F35 jet still be in service YesNo
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5-Jun-202130-Jun-2022Brian! Australia will have 30 daily new cases of Covid without any lockdownsNoYesYes
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talky talk12-Jun-202112-Jun-2021Chris!When was the first insurance product sold before the 1700'sNoYes
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talky talk19-Jun-202126-Jun-2021Chris!Are robot vacuum cleaner sales >10% of new vacuum cleaner sales in AustraliaYesNo
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talky talk26-Jun-20211-Jan-2022Chris! 3.2%Will USA TFP growth be greater than 3.5% for FY 2021NoYes
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10-Jul-202131 Dec 2028Will Teslas sales be >50% of Fords in the USANoYes
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talky talk25-Jul-202125-Dec-2023Has another "real" episode of HI been publishedYesNo
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talky talk7-Aug-202131-Mar-2022Cameron!Travel between Singapore and the Eastern Australian states will be free for the vaccinated. (no quarantine)
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talky talk16-Aug-202131-Dec-2022
Gini coefficient for equivalised disposable household income(b)(c) above 0.34
NoYes
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4-Sep-202111-Nov-2024Will the USA election be more polarized than the 2020 electionYesNo
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19-Sep-20211-Dec-2021Chris! Will Chris be able to visit Brian in WodongaYesNoYes
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10-Oct-20211-Jan-2035Will global inequality in 2035 exceed 63.1 Gini per the 2021 forecast from our world in data (see "our world in data chart" sheet)NoYes
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23-Oct-20211-Jan-2026Is the daily average kWh price in Chris' suburb cheaper than 80% of the 2021 priceYesNo
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27-Feb-20221-Jan-2030Non-alcoholic beer will be >8.7% CAGR between now and 2030YesNo
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2-Jul-20221-Jan-2035Will the percentage of women CEOs of ASX300 companies be greater than 5% in 2035NoYes
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3-May-20232-May-2024Will Cam get the job??YesNo
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