1.5C Carbon Budget_Data
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Temperature rise in degC (above pre-industrial)
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<1.5<2<3
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For a 66% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2
Global Carbon Project emissions data (in Gt CO2) (e)
2010201120122013 (f)2014 (g)
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Budget left in 2010 (a)40010002400CO2 from fossil fuels & cement production33.634.735.436.137
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Budget left in 2014 (b)2438432243CO2 from land use4.03.23.63.33.3
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No. of years remaining (c)6.020.955.7Total CO2 from all human sources37.637.839.139.440.3
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Unburnable fossil fuel reservesFossil fuel CO2 (% of total CO2)89.491.790.791.691.8
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Lower bound estimate93%77%39%Total CO2 (Gt CO2, 2011 to 2014 inclusive)157
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Mid-point estimate (d)95%84%58%
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Upper bound estimate97%88%68%
Total fossil fuel available in 2011 (in Gt CO2) (h)
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For a 50% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2Upper bound estimate7100
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Budget left in 2010 55013002800Mid-point estimate5385
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Budget left in 201439311432643Lower bound estimate3670
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No. of years remaining9.828.465.6
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Unburnable fossil fuel reserves
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Lower bound estimate89%69%28%
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Mid-point estimate93%79%51%
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Upper bound estimate94%84%63%
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For a 33% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2
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Budget left in 201085015003250
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Budget left in 201469313433093
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No. of years remaining17.233.376.8
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Unburnable fossil fuel reserves
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Lower bound estimate81%63%16%
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Mid-point estimate87%75%43%
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Upper bound estimate90.2%81.1%56.4%
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(a) Taken from Table 2.2 in the IPCC's 5th AR Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
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(b) Calculated from the IPCC's budget in 2010 (see footnote a) minus total CO2 emissions in 2011-2014 from The Global Carbon Project http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm
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(c) Calculated from the budget remaining in 2014 (see footnotes a and b) divided by current emissions in 2014
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(d) Calculated using the midpoint in the IPCC's range for total fossil fuel available in 2011 (see footnote h) and the remaining budget in 2014 (see footnotes a and b)
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(e) Emissions data from the Global Carbon Project ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/Global_Carbon_Project/Global_Carbon_Budget_2013_v2.4.xlsx
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(f) and (g) Global Carbon Project total CO2 emissions for 2013 and 2014 from all sources http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n10/pdf/ngeo2248.pdf
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(h) Taken from Table 2.2 in the IPCC's 5th AR Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
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