ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAA
1
Temperature rise in degC (above pre-industrial)
2
<1.5<2<3
3
For a 66% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2
Global Carbon Project emissions data (in Gt CO2) (e)
2010201120122013 (f)2014 (g)
4
Budget left in 2010 (a)40010002400CO2 from fossil fuels & cement production33.634.735.436.137
5
Budget left in 2014 (b)2438432243CO2 from land use4.03.23.63.33.3
6
No. of years remaining (c)6.020.955.7Total CO2 from all human sources37.637.839.139.440.3
7
Unburnable fossil fuel reservesFossil fuel CO2 (% of total CO2)89.491.790.791.691.8
8
Lower bound estimate93%77%39%Total CO2 (Gt CO2, 2011 to 2014 inclusive)157
9
Mid-point estimate (d)95%84%58%
10
Upper bound estimate97%88%68%Total fossil fuel available in 2011 (in Gt CO2) (h)
11
For a 50% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2Upper bound estimate7100
12
Budget left in 2010 55013002800Mid-point estimate5385
13
Budget left in 201439311432643Lower bound estimate3670
14
No. of years remaining9.828.465.6
15
Unburnable fossil fuel reserves
16
Lower bound estimate89%69%28%
17
Mid-point estimate93%79%51%
18
Upper bound estimate94%84%63%
19
For a 33% chanceCarbon budget in GtCO2
20
Budget left in 201085015003250
21
Budget left in 201469313433093
22
No. of years remaining17.233.376.8
23
Unburnable fossil fuel reserves
24
Lower bound estimate81%63%16%
25
Mid-point estimate87%75%43%
26
Upper bound estimate90.2%81.1%56.4%
27
28
(a) Taken from Table 2.2 in the IPCC's 5th AR Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
29
(b) Calculated from the IPCC's budget in 2010 (see footnote a) minus total CO2 emissions in 2011-2014 from The Global Carbon Project http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm
30
(c) Calculated from the budget remaining in 2014 (see footnotes a and b) divided by current emissions in 2014
31
(d) Calculated using the midpoint in the IPCC's range for total fossil fuel available in 2011 (see footnote h) and the remaining budget in 2014 (see footnotes a and b)
32
(e) Emissions data from the Global Carbon Project ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/Global_Carbon_Project/Global_Carbon_Budget_2013_v2.4.xlsx
33
(f) and (g) Global Carbon Project total CO2 emissions for 2013 and 2014 from all sources http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n10/pdf/ngeo2248.pdf
34
(h) Taken from Table 2.2 in the IPCC's 5th AR Synthesis Report http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100