2024 Mendoza Line Support Sheet.xlsx

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2	Charts to Support Mendoza Line Post
3	Kellblog is copyright (c) Dave Kellogg from 2005 to date, and is protected via a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International license agreement.
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6	Comparison of Growth Trajectory Rules															Mendoza Line Scalability (Powers of 0.85)					Backing into the 2024 Mendoza Curve
7		Trajectory															Year	Growth	Comment			Size	Growth (YoY)	GE	85%
8	Rule	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10	Year 11	Year 12	Assumptions			Year 1	100%	Growth rate into $10M		Year 0	3	127%
9	T2D3		2.0	6.0	18.0	36.0	72.0	144.0						2 years to $2M			Year 2	85%			Year 1	6	108%
10	Rule of 56789					15.0	30.0	54.0	89.0	143.0				Kellblog post example			Year 3	72%			Year 2	12	92%
11	Rule of 85% GE		1.2	3.0	6.9	14.5	28.2	50.7	85.1	134.2	200.0	283.5	383.9	Growth rate at Y3	153%		Year 4	61%			Year 3	21	78%
12	2024 Mendoza Line			5.0	10.0	18.5	31.9	51.4	78.3	113.0	155.6	205.5	261.6	Rule indexes off $10M			Year 5	52%			Year 4	35	66%
13																	Year 6	44%			Year 5	55	56%
14																	Year 7	38%			Year 6	82	48%
15	R85GE growth rate			153%	130%	111%	94%	80%	68%	58%	49%	42%	35%	Working row (hide)			Year 8	32%			Year 7	115	41%
16	Mendoza growth rate				100%	85%	72%	61%	52%	44%	38%	32%	27%	Working row (hide)			Year 9	27%			Year 8	155	35%
17																	Year 10	23%	Starts to get too slow		Year 9	200	29%
18																	Year 11	20%			Year 10	250	25%
19																	Year 12	17%
20																	Year 13	14%
21																	Year 14	12%
22																	Year 15	10%
23																	Year 16	9%	Definitely too slow
24																	Year 17	7%
25																	Year 18	6%
26																	Year 19	5%
27																	Year 20	5%
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51																				Table from the Equation
52																				Size	Growth
53																				10	97%
54																				20	81%
55																				30	72%
56																				40	65%
57																				50	60%
58																				60	56%
59																				70	52%
60																				80	49%
61																				90	47%
62																				100	44%
63																				110	42%
64																				120	40%
65																				130	38%
66																				140	36%
67																				150	35%
68																				160	33%
69																				170	32%
70																				180	31%
71																				190	30%
72																				200	28%
73																				210	27%
74																				220	26%
75																				230	25%
76																				240	24%
77																				250	23%
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79																				300	19%
80																				400	12%
81																				500	7%
82																				750	-2%
83																				1000	-9%
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