Empirical Estimate Forecaster
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EMPIRICAL ESTIMATE FORECASTER
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Estimate30
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Forecasts
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Target LikelihoodForecastTrue Likelihood
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10%30.09.91%
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25%39.424.77%
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50%65.150.00%
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75%96.074.77%
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90%152.789.64%
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INSTRUCTIONS:
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Only edit yellow cells.
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This spreadsheet forecasts when an estimate will actually be done based on
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historical estimate accuracy.
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1. Duplicate this spreadsheet by choosing "Make a Copy" from the "File" menu.
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(You'll need to log in in order for the option to be available.) It doesn't work in Excel.
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2. Erase the example data in the Historical Estimates table below. Only erase yellow cells.
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Fill in your own historical data, in terms of time remaining from when the estimate was made.
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3. Enter the estimate to forecast above, in the "Estimate" cell. Use the same units as in step 2.
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4. Read the forecasts from the "Forecasts" table. The "Target Likelihood" column describes
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the desired chance of meeting or beating the forecast. (The "True Likelihood" column describes
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the actual chance, which may be different than the "Target Likelihood" column, depending on
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how much historical data you have.)
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5. (Optional) You may change the "Target Likelihood" column to see forecasts with different
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levels of accuracy.
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HISTORICAL ESTIMATES
ESTIMATE DISTRIBUTION
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EstimateActual
Actual/Estimate
Actual/Estimate
Cumulative %Forecast
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363610.54545454550.45%16.36363636
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31461.4838709680.66666666670.90%20
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313110.68751.35%20.625
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35762.1714285710.91666666671.80%27.5
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40411.02512.25%30
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30561.86666666712.70%30
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35361.02857142913.15%30
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29311.06896551713.60%30
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1616114.05%30
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9111.22222222214.50%30
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16110.687514.95%30
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321715.41%30
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16563.515.86%30
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34361.05882352916.31%30
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34611.79411764716.76%30
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36561.55555555617.21%30
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26511.96153846217.66%30
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35561.618.11%30
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1616118.56%30
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31411.32258064519.01%30
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36461.27777777819.46%30
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35862.45714285719.91%30
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34361.058823529110.36%30
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34361.058823529110.81%30
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34762.235294118111.26%30
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32912.84375111.71%30
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15513.4112.16%30
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31712.290322581112.61%30
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16311.9375113.06%30
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28662.357142857113.51%30
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23512.217391304113.96%30
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35762.1714285711.02514.41%30.75
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36812.251.02857142914.86%30.85714286
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35511.4571428571.0515.32%31.5
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21713.3809523811.05882352915.77%31.76470588
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212111.05882352916.22%31.76470588
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38461.2105263161.05882352916.67%31.76470588
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175131.06896551717.12%32.06896552
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29862.9655172411.117.57%33
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36411.1388888891.12518.02%33.75
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161611.13888888918.47%34.16666667
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181811.14285714318.92%34.28571429
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11565.0909090911.14285714319.37%34.28571429
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464611.219.82%36
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6518.51.21052631620.27%36.31578947
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21562.6666666671.22222222220.72%36.66666667
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27511.8888888891.22222222221.17%36.66666667
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21612.9047619051.22222222221.62%36.66666667
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212111.23809523822.07%37.14285714
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31461.4838709681.2422.52%37.2
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212111.2422.97%37.2
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31461.4838709681.27777777823.42%38.33333333
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16261.6251.312523.87%39.375
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10363.61.312524.32%39.375
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44811.8409090911.312524.77%39.375
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15362.41.32258064525.23%39.67741935
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25461.841.33333333325.68%40
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30461.5333333331.37526.13%41.25
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14463.2857142861.4426.58%43.2
90
21462.190476191.45454545527.03%43.63636364
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6162.6666666671.45454545527.48%43.63636364
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13765.8461538461.45454545527.93%43.63636364
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20562.81.45454545528.38%43.63636364
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6111.8333333331.45454545528.83%43.63636364
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11464.1818181821.45714285729.28%43.71428571
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363611.47619047629.73%44.28571429
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5112.21.47619047630.18%44.28571429
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21462.190476191.48387096830.63%44.51612903
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6416.8333333331.48387096831.08%44.51612903
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5265.21.48387096831.53%44.51612903