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Understanding the significance of the unpublished changes to the frequency coefficients in the main mode choice model for the California High Speed Rail project-454.5454545Language in the FINAL report, issued after new numbers were adopted and used for ridership forecasts in the same report: "The value of frequency (headway) is significant for all segments, but is only
about 20 percent as large as the in-vehicle time coefficient. If wait time were
half the headway and valued twice as highly as in-vehicle time, then we
would expect the same coefficient on headway and in-vehicle time. For these
modes, and particularly air, headway is less related to wait time than it is to
scheduling convenience. Because none of the levels used in the SP had
headways higher than a few hours, the implications for scheduling may not
have been large enough to greatly influence mode choice."
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Headway change (minutes)30<<<<< vary this number
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Business and CommuteOtherBusinessCommuteOther
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More than 100 milesMore than 100 milesLess than 100 miles but between regions Less than 100 miles but between regions Less than 100 miles but between regions
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Old time-0.016-0.011-0.05-0.025-0.014
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New time-0.018-0.011-0.05-0.025-0.014
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Old cost-0.01626-0.035-0.109-0.148-0.109
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New cost-0.017-0.035-0.109-0.148-0.108
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Old Value of Time*$59.04$18.86$27.52$10.14$7.71
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New Value of Time*$63.53$18.86$27.52$10.14$7.78
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Old Service Headway Coefficient-0.003-0.003-0.006-0.0023-0.009
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News Service Headway Coefficient-0.0179-0.011-0.05-0.025-0.014
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Old Ratio - Frequency/Time0.190.270.120.090.64
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New Ratio - Frequency / Time0.991.001.001.001.00
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Old tradeoff in terms of travel cost$5.54$2.57$1.65$0.47$2.48
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New tradeoff in terms of travel cost$31.59$9.43$13.76$5.07$3.89
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Old tradeoff in terms of travel time684319
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New tradeoff in terms of travel time3030303030
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Source: various documents from Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Constrained
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*These are slightly different from published numbers - published numbers for time or cost must have had additional digits.
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