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35Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/
5448013
3
4750 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/
5448013
4
111Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/
5448013
5
112When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/
5448013
6
117Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/
5448013
7
122Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/
4548013
8
139Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/
5448013
9
149Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/
5448013
10
152Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/
5448013
11
158When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/
5448013
12
15Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/
4446412
13
102What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/
4446412
14
124Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/
4446412
15
129Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/
4446412
16
138How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/
4446412
17
145Who will win the 'worm wars'?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/
4446412
18
157How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/
4446412
19
161What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/
4446412
20
170Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/
4446412
21
183Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/
4446412
22
31What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/
5346012
23
67When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/
5346012
24
83When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/
5346012
25
99Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/
5346012
26
100When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/
5346012
27
133Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/
5436012
28
159Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/
5346012
29
171How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/
5346012
30
192What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/
5346012
31
9Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
4434811
32
16How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/
3444811
33
33How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/
4344811
34
37Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/
4434811
35
66When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
4344811
36
73Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/
4344811
37
75Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/
4344811
38
90Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/
4344811
39
96When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/
4344811
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101By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/
4344811
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113Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/
4344811
42
125When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/
4344811
43
146Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/
3444811
44
166What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/
4344811
45
174What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/
3444811
46
8Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/
5244011
47
36How many communist states will there be in 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/
5244011
48
65When will the first human be born on another world?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/
5244011
49
84When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/
5244011
50
93Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/
5244011
51
94What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/
5244011
52
177What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/
5244011
53
182Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/
5244011
54
184When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/
5244011
55
198Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/
5244011
56
89If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/
3343610
57
123Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/
4333610
58
191When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/
3343610
59
1How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/
4243210
60
10How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/
4243210
61
22What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/
2443210
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23Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/
4243210
63
25How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/
4243210
64
28Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/
4243210
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30What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/
2443210
66
32When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/
4243210
67
34Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/
4243210
68
46How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/
4243210
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56When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/
4243210
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61How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/
4243210
71
64Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/
4243210
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76Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/
2443210
73
77Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/
4243210
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81What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/
4243210
75
85What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/
4243210
76
86How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/
4243210
77
87What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/
4243210
78
92What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/
4243210
79
98Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/
4243210
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114When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/
4243210
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115How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/
2443210
82
116Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/
4243210
83
120When will North Korea become a democracy?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/
4243210
84
131Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/
4243210
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135If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/
4243210
86
140What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/
4243210
87
141When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/
4243210
88
142What will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/minimum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/
4243210
89
143How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/
4243210
90
153How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/
4243210
91
155Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/
4243210
92
200Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/
4243210
93
4On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/
5233010
94
24What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/
5233010
95
43Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/
5233010
96
68What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/
5323010
97
196Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/
333279
98
38What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/
324249
99
45Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/
324249
100
50When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/
324249