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How to mess up a good company and not make any money along the way
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https://alexoppenheimer.substack.com/p/how-to-mess-up-a-good-company-and
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BASE CASE
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RoundRound Size Pre-$ Val Post-$ Val Total Dilution Amount Purchased Amount Sold Holding Value Ending Ownership MOIC Distributed Multiple Residual Multiple Shares
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Seed$2,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 20.0% $250,000 $0 $250,000 2.50% 1.0x 0.0x 1.0x 250,000
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Series A$10,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 20.0% $1,000,000 2.00% 4.0x 0.0x 4.0x 250,000
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Series B$50,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 16.7% $5,000,000 1.67% 20.0x 0.0x 20.0x 250,000
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Series C$200,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $1,500,000,000 13.3% $21,666,667 1.44% 86.7x 0.0x 86.7x 250,000
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Recap Series D$25,000,000 $100,000,000 $125,000,000 20.0% $100,000 $1,805,556 1.44% 5.2x 0.0x 5.2x 250,000
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$287,000,000 90.0%
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Common Equity Value
$12,500,000 (Unrealized)
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SELL SECONDARY
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RoundRound Size Pre-$ Val Post-$ Val Total Dilution Amount Purchased Amount Sold Holding Value Ending Ownership MOIC Distributed Multiple Residual Multiple Shares Shares Sold % Sold New Ownership Share Price Shares Out Valuation Check
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Seed$2,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 20.0% $250,000 $0 $250,000 2.50% 1.0x 0.0x 1.0x 250,000 0 0.0% $1.00 10,000,000
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Series A$10,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 20.0% $250,000 $750,000 1.50% 4.0x 1.0x 3.0x 187,500 62,500 25.0% 1.50% $4.00 12,500,000 $50,000,000
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Series B$50,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 16.7% $1,250,000 $2,500,000 0.83% 16.0x 6.0x 10.0x 125,000 62,500 25.0% 0.83% $20.00 15,000,000 $300,000,000
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Series C$200,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $1,500,000,000 13.3% $5,416,667 $5,416,667 0.36% 49.3x 27.7x 21.7x 62,500 62,500 25.0% 0.36% $86.67 17,307,692 $1,500,000,000
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Recap Series D$25,000,000 $100,000,000 $125,000,000 20.0% $25,000 $451,389 0.36% 26.8x 25.2x 1.6x
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$287,000,000 90.0% $275,000 $6,916,667 $7,368,056
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Common Equity Value
$12,500,000 (Unrealized)25.2x 26.8x
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CONSERVATIVE FINANCING & EXIT
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RoundRound Size Pre-$ Val Post-$ Val Total Dilution Amount Purchased Amount Sold Holding Value Ending Ownership MOIC Distributed Multiple Residual Multiple Shares Shares Sold % Sold New Ownership Share Price Shares Out Valuation Check
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Seed$2,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 25.0% $250,000 $0 $250,000 3.13% 1.0x 0.0x 1.0x 250,000 0 0.0% 3.13% $1.00 8,000,000
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Series A$5,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 20.0% $0 $625,000 2.50% 2.5x 0.0x 2.5x 250,000 0 0.0% 2.50% $2.50 10,000,000 $25,000,000
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Series B$15,000,000 $65,000,000 $80,000,000 18.8% $0 $1,625,000 2.03% 6.5x 0.0x 6.5x 250,000 0 0.0% 2.03% $6.50 12,307,692 $80,000,000
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Series C$25,000,000 $125,000,000 $150,000,000 16.7% $0 $2,539,063 1.69% 10.2x 0.0x 10.2x 250,000 0 0.0% 1.69% $10.16 14,769,231 $150,000,000
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Exit$250,000,000 80.4% $4,231,771 16.9x 16.9x 0.0x 0 250,000 100.0% 0.00% $16.93 14,769,231 $250,000,000
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$47,000,000
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Common Equity Value
$48,958,333 (Realized)
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