GiveWell's room for more funding analysis for the END Fund [2018]
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Scope of analysisNotes
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Unit of analysis (full organization or program of a larger organization)The END Fund overall
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Analysis 'as of' dateJune 30, 2018
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Funds on handAmountNotes
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Funds in the bank for The END Fund overall as of June 30, 2018$18,008,214Figure provided by the END Fund in a copy of this spreadsheet
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Of funds in the bank for The END Fund overall, amount committed to future activities$15,559,092Figure provided by the END Fund in a copy of this spreadsheet
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Uncommitted, unreserved funds in the bank$2,449,122Calculation
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Projected revenueValue from same period in previous yearAre there any reasons why last year's revenue is not a reasonable projection for next year (ignoring variation in GiveWell-influenced funding)?Projection (before GiveWell's 2017 recommendation)Notes
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Total annual revenue for The END Fund overall most recent fiscal year (or another annual period)$19,305,699-For 2017: https://end.org/cms/assets/uploads/2018/07/2017-Finacial-Statement-.pdf
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Total GiveWell-influenced funding that reached the organization in most recent fiscal year (or another annual period consistent with the above)$2,705,047--From GiveWell's internal donation records.
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Projected revenue from donors who are not influenced by GiveWell's research in most recent fiscal year (or another annual period consistent with the above)$16,600,652-$16,600,652Calculation.
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Funding held by GiveWell as of the end of most recent fiscal year (or another annual period consistent with the above)--$8,825From GiveWell's internal donation records.
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Annual projected revenue from donors who give based on GiveWell's top charity list, but do not follow our recommendation for marginal funding--$200,000GiveWell maintains both a list of all top charities that meet our criteria and a recommendation for which charity or charities to give to to maximize the impact of additional donations, given cost-effectiveness of remaining funding gaps.

Estimate based on amont of funding we tracked to the END Fund based on our recommendation in 2017. Excludes grants that we recommended Good Ventures make to the END Fund.
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[For programs that are part of a larger org] Funding expected for the program from parent organization's unrestricted funding$0-$0
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Bottom line
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'Baseline' funding pot for The END Fund overall to allocate in 2019$19,258,599Of which, revenue: $16,809,477
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Revenue projection for allocating in 2020 (received in 2019)$27,000,000The END Fund notes, "Our fundraising goals have increased since receiving additional commitments in 2018. For 2019, we currently have more than $23 million in pledges (including conditional pledges which are therefore not included in the pledges receivable on the audit) of [a goal of] $39 million." Abbey Turtinen, email to GiveWell, August 23, 2018. Based on pledges and the END Fund's fundraising goal, we have made a guess about how much the END Fund will raise in total.
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Revenue projection for allocating in 2021 (received in 2020)$25,000,000The END Fund notes, "We have over $14 million in pledges (including conditional pledges) for 2020. We anticipate fundraising for 2020 to increase with current pledges in progress as well." Based on pledges and the END Fund's fundraising goal, we have made a guess about how much the END Fund will raise in total.
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