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Vaccine development and delivery timelines and sales estimates
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This spreadsheet contains two sheets that support the report on Vaccine Delivery Timelines.
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"Timelines" contains a visualization of the timeline of major milestones for the vaccines we have explored so far. The key at the bottom lays out the milestones we include
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"Sales estimates" contains estimates of vaccine sales following their earliest Gavi introductions.
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Per Open Philanthropy's recommendation, these are calculated by multiplying birth cohort size, dosage, and coverage, and assuming 10% wastage.
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The calculation is not meant to identify the exact number of vaccines sold, but rather to understand which year (approximately) sales reached particular thresholds (>1 million and >10 million sold in Gavi countries).
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Accordingly, we issue a loose 'stopping rule' where we stop adding new rows of data once we reach >10 million sales (i.e. there may be even more sales in the final year, but we would not continue to add data to the spreadsheet).
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We have some indication of how well this method works from the rotavirus example. UNICEF reports the procurement of >10m doses by ~2013-2014 (Figure 1 here). The method applied here suggests that >11.7 million sales had been made by the end of 2013, which appears to somewhat overestimate the procurement suggested by Figure 1 (which suggests 10.2m contracted courses by 2013 with part of that carried over to 2014 in implementation). The Figure shows ~12.5 million doses procured in 2014, so the method approximates the timing of surpassing 10m sales with an error of perhaps 6-12 months in this case.
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