| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | AH | AI | AJ | AK | AL | ||
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1 | Conditional cash transfers to increase infant vaccination in Nigeria - New Incentives | Abia | Adamawa | Akwa Ibom | Anambra | Bauchi | Bayelsa | Benue | Borno | Cross River | Delta | Ebonyi | Edo | Ekiti | Enugu | FCT | Gombe | Imo | Jigawa | Kaduna | Kano | Katsina | Kebbi | Kogi | Kwara | Lagos | Nasarawa | Niger | Ogun | Ondo | Osun | Oyo | Plateau | Rivers | Sokoto | Taraba | Yobe | Zamfara | |
2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Increase in vaccination rates due to New Incentives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Aggregate baseline vaccination coverage (i.e. vaccination rates in the absence of New Incentives' program) | 86% | 71% | 82% | 78% | 46% | 75% | 75% | 49% | 90% | 77% | 98% | 87% | 93% | 96% | 90% | 58% | 91% | 53% | 61% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 78% | 63% | 90% | 67% | 55% | 61% | 69% | 87% | 69% | 76% | 87% | 23% | 66% | 71% | 43% | |
6 | Percent of infants who would be unvaccinated in the absence of New Incentives' program | 14% | 29% | 18% | 22% | 54% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 10% | 23% | 2% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 10% | 42% | 9% | 47% | 39% | 50% | 55% | 57% | 22% | 37% | 10% | 33% | 45% | 39% | 31% | 13% | 31% | 24% | 13% | 77% | 34% | 29% | 57% | |
7 | Estimated reduction in the percent of unvaccinated infants as a result of New Incentives' program | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | |
8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Increase in vaccination rates due to New Incentives (in percentage points) | 5% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 18% | 8% | 8% | 17% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 14% | 3% | 16% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 7% | 12% | 3% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 19% | |
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Number of vaccinations supported with a hypothetical donation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Cost of the program per enrolled infant, New Incentives | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | $21.27 | |
14 | Government cost per additional (counterfactual) full immunization | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | $34.29 | |
15 | Gavi cost per additional (counterfactual) full immunization | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | $28.64 | |
16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Donation to New Incentives (arbitrary size) | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | |
18 | Percent of infants who would have been vaccinated without New Incentives | 86% | 71% | 82% | 78% | 46% | 75% | 75% | 49% | 90% | 77% | 98% | 87% | 93% | 96% | 90% | 58% | 91% | 53% | 61% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 78% | 63% | 90% | 67% | 55% | 61% | 69% | 87% | 69% | 76% | 87% | 23% | 66% | 71% | 43% | |
19 | Percent of those vaccinated in treatment catchment areas who were enrolled in New Incentives' RCT | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | |
20 | Size of cohort of infants (based on size of donation to New Incentives) | 5,476 | 6,160 | 5,644 | 5,798 | 7,770 | 5,942 | 5,947 | 7,502 | 5,307 | 5,864 | 5,012 | 5,402 | 5,188 | 5,101 | 5,284 | 6,869 | 5,254 | 7,215 | 6,718 | 7,438 | 7,856 | 8,024 | 5,794 | 6,554 | 5,309 | 6,330 | 7,086 | 6,714 | 6,245 | 5,437 | 6,263 | 5,893 | 5,430 | 10,220 | 6,397 | 6,140 | 7,984 | |
21 | Number of vaccinations in cohort paid for by New Incentives | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | 4,700 | |
22 | Number of infants in cohort counterfactually vaccinated | 263 | 604 | 347 | 423 | 1,406 | 495 | 498 | 1,272 | 179 | 457 | 32 | 226 | 120 | 76 | 168 | 957 | 153 | 1,129 | 882 | 1,240 | 1,448 | 1,532 | 421 | 800 | 180 | 689 | 1,065 | 880 | 646 | 244 | 655 | 471 | 240 | 2,626 | 722 | 594 | 1,513 | |
23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | Total government spending on counterfactual vaccinations | $9,020 | $20,699 | $11,881 | $14,513 | $48,199 | $16,986 | $17,063 | $43,621 | $6,128 | $15,653 | $1,097 | $7,749 | $4,106 | $2,614 | $5,746 | $32,817 | $5,231 | $38,725 | $30,237 | $42,527 | $49,658 | $52,530 | $14,444 | $27,426 | $6,170 | $23,610 | $36,513 | $30,159 | $22,149 | $8,353 | $22,459 | $16,149 | $8,238 | $90,045 | $24,745 | $20,361 | $51,859 | |
25 | Total spending by Gavi on counterfactual vaccinations | $7,534 | $17,289 | $9,924 | $12,122 | $40,259 | $14,188 | $14,252 | $36,435 | $5,119 | $13,074 | $916 | $6,473 | $3,430 | $2,183 | $4,799 | $27,411 | $4,369 | $32,346 | $25,256 | $35,521 | $41,478 | $43,877 | $12,065 | $22,908 | $5,154 | $19,720 | $30,498 | $25,191 | $18,500 | $6,977 | $18,759 | $13,488 | $6,881 | $75,212 | $20,669 | $17,007 | $43,316 | |
26 | Total amount spent on hypothetical program by all contributors | $116,554 | $137,989 | $121,806 | $126,636 | $188,458 | $131,174 | $131,315 | $180,056 | $111,247 | $128,727 | $102,013 | $114,222 | $107,536 | $104,797 | $110,545 | $160,228 | $109,600 | $171,071 | $155,493 | $178,048 | $191,135 | $196,407 | $126,509 | $150,334 | $111,324 | $143,330 | $167,011 | $155,350 | $140,650 | $115,331 | $141,218 | $129,637 | $115,120 | $265,256 | $145,413 | $137,368 | $195,175 | |
27 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Effect of vaccination on disease incidence | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | Percent of all under 5 vaccine-preventable deaths from diseases targeted by: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | PCV vaccine (three doses) | 46% | 46% | 48% | 52% | 38% | 39% | 42% | 32% | 48% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 48% | 47% | 49% | 44% | 51% | 37% | 46% | 44% | 35% | 36% | 41% | 42% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 52% | 46% | 48% | 45% | 49% | 35% | 47% | 36% | 31% | |
32 | DTP vaccine (three doses) | 7% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 26% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 12% | |
33 | HiB vaccine (three doses) | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | |
34 | Measles vaccine (one dose) | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 6% | |
35 | BCG vaccine (one dose) | 11% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 8% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 20% | 12% | 12% | 17% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 12% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 21% | |
36 | Rotavirus vaccine (two doses) | 30% | 25% | 20% | 15% | 26% | 31% | 30% | 31% | 17% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 16% | 19% | 24% | 17% | 26% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 24% | 14% | 23% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 29% | 26% | 25% | 28% | |
37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Vaccine efficacy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | PCV vaccine (three doses) | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | |
40 | DTP vaccine (three doses) | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 | |
41 | HiB vaccine (three doses) | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | |
42 | Measles vaccine (one dose) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | |
43 | BCG vaccine (one dose) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | |
44 | Rotavirus vaccine (two doses) | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | |
45 | Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
46 | Overall unadjusted vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analyses | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.66 | |
47 | Overall unadjusted relative risk for the incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases from meta-analyses | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.34 | |
48 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Adjustment for coverage in trials | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | |
50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Adjustment for lower vaccine efficacy in Nigeria | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Probability that low agreement between biomarkers results and caregiver reports in operational pilots were driven by: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Issues unlikely to lead to vaccine efficacy concerns in New Incentives' program | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |
54 | Issues likely to lead to vaccine efficacy concerns in New Incentives' program | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | |
55 | Implied adjustment factors for explanation for biomarkers results: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Issues unlikely to lead to vaccine efficacy concerns in New Incentives' program | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
57 | Issues likely to lead to vaccine efficacy concerns in New Incentives' program | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
58 | Weighted average adjustment to vaccine efficacy based on biomarkers results | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.51 | |
59 | Adjustment factors for additional sources of evidence: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Meta-analysis we use for main effect of measles vaccine | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
61 | Nigerian seroconversion study (Fowotade et al. 2015) | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | |
62 | Meta-analysis with Africa-specific effect (Uzicanin and Zimmerman 2011) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |
63 | Weight applied to each source of evidence: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Biomarkers operational pilots | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |
65 | Meta-analysis we use for main effect of measles vaccine in CEA | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |
66 | Nigerian seroconversion study (Fowotade et al. 2015) | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |
67 | Meta-analysis with Africa-specific effect (Uzicanin and Zimmerman 2011) | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |
68 | Weighted average adjustment factor | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
69 | Application to other vaccines besides measles: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | Contribution of measles to CEA | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 6% | |
71 | Contribution of other vaccines to CEA | 98% | 97% | 96% | 97% | 95% | 95% | 97% | 94% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 96% | 95% | 96% | 97% | 96% | 97% | 95% | 95% | 97% | 93% | 93% | 94% | 92% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 95% | 95% | 96% | 96% | 95% | 97% | 93% | 94% | |
72 | Percent of adjustment that applies to non-measles vaccines | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | |
73 | Measles adjustment | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
74 | Non-measles adjustment | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.82 | |
75 | Overall adjustment for lower vaccine efficacy in Nigeria | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.81 | |
76 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | Adjustment for all-cause mortality effect | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases among vaccinated and unvaccinated children under 5 | 1.04% | 1.64% | 0.53% | 0.55% | 2.50% | 0.94% | 0.82% | 0.69% | 0.53% | 0.74% | 0.84% | 0.60% | 0.58% | 0.33% | 0.63% | 1.77% | 0.42% | 2.92% | 1.45% | 1.74% | 2.05% | 2.02% | 0.56% | 0.41% | 0.32% | 0.85% | 0.99% | 0.46% | 0.55% | 0.26% | 0.34% | 0.63% | 0.72% | 3.21% | 1.78% | 1.33% | 3.22% | |
79 | Percent vaccinated during time of IHME data | 62.02% | 51.30% | 66.47% | 71.46% | 29.15% | 49.71% | 52.55% | 43.94% | 75.03% | 60.87% | 73.26% | 78.92% | 75.49% | 79.48% | 72.13% | 36.83% | 76.13% | 30.78% | 45.78% | 29.73% | 28.62% | 32.86% | 60.99% | 52.94% | 72.57% | 49.58% | 35.16% | 51.71% | 61.06% | 68.52% | 57.73% | 58.86% | 67.55% | 12.62% | 37.96% | 35.12% | 23.14% | |
80 | Indirect deaths averted per direct death averted from vaccination | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
81 | Relative risk for the incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases, with adjustments for coverage and lower vaccine efficacy in Nigeria | 0.48 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.44 | |
82 | Adjustment for all-cause mortality effect (goal-seek based on indirect deaths averted per direct death averted estimate) | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.41 | |
83 | Relative risk for the incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases, with adjustment for all-cause mortality effect | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.21 | |
84 | Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases among unvaccinated children under 5 (direct only) | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.7% | |
85 | Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases among unvaccinated children under 5 (direct and indirect) | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.9% | |
86 | Deaths directly averted per person vaccinated | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | |
87 | Total deaths averted per person vaccinated | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | |
88 | Indirect deaths averted per person vaccinated | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | |
89 | Indirect deaths averted per direct death averted from vaccination (calculated) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
90 | Check on indirect deaths averted estimate | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | TRUE | |
91 | Adjustment for reductions in mortality from causes other than vaccine-preventable diseases | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.41 | |
92 | Vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analysis, adjusted | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.79 | |
93 | Relative risk for the incidence of vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analyses, adjusted | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.21 | |
94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | Mortality reduction for children under 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated children under 5 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.9% | |
98 | Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
99 | Number of deaths of children under five averted in cohort | 3 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 20 | 29 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 74 | 13 | 8 | 47 | |
100 | Value assigned to averting the death of an individual under 5 from vaccine-preventable diseases | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 |