ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
= Cells in blue are inputs — update share price and tweak earnings growth rate/shares outstanding decline rate at your discretion
2
3
4
012345
5
Earnings Growth Rate Per Year 202520262027202820292030
6
4.5%Earnings $ 2,700,000,000.00 $2,821,500,000 $2,948,467,500 $3,081,148,538 $3,219,800,222 $3,364,691,232 (Increases by cell A2)
7
Shares Outstanding16,800,000 15,876,000.00 15,002,820.00 14,177,664.90 13,397,893.33 12,661,009.20
(Decreases by cell A5)
8
Shares Outstanding Decline Rate (Buyback Yield)Buybacks $ 2,673,000,000.00 $ 2,793,285,000.00 $ 2,918,982,825.00 $ 3,050,337,052.13 $ 3,187,602,219.47 $ 3,331,044,319.35
(Assumed to be done at 18 P/E)
9
-5.50%Buybacks as a % of Earnings99%99%99%99%99%99%
(Meant to anchor whether the decline in shares from buybacks is realistic —i.e., not significantly > net income)
10
11
Current Stock PriceEPS $ 160.71 $ 177.72 $ 196.53 $ 217.32 $ 240.32 $ 265.75
12
$3,450 P/E
13
 $ 2,250.00 $ 2,488.10 $ 2,751.39 $ 3,042.54 $ 3,364.50 $ 3,720.53 14
14
Current P/E (for reference) $ 2,571.43 $ 2,843.54 $ 3,144.44 $ 3,477.19 $ 3,845.14 $ 4,252.04 16
15
21.47 $ 2,892.86 $ 3,198.98 $ 3,537.50 $ 3,911.83 $ 4,325.78 $ 4,783.54 18
16
Stock Price by Year $ 3,375.00 $ 3,732.14 $ 4,127.08 $ 4,563.81 $ 5,046.75 $ 5,315.04 20
17
Total Buyback Spending (for reference) $ 3,535.71 $ 3,909.86 $ 4,323.61 $ 4,781.13 $ 5,287.07 $ 5,580.80 21
18
 $ 17,954,251,415.94 $ 3,535.71 $ 3,909.86 $ 4,323.61 $ 4,781.13 $ 5,287.07 $ 5,846.55 22
19
20
5-Year Share Count Reduction (for reference)
21
24.64%Range of Estimated 5-Year Annual Rates of Return (IRR)Returns by P/E in 2030Price Weights
22
($3,450)0000 $ 3,720.53 1.52%140.1
23
Weighted Average 2030 Price Target (reference)Current share price, update A8($3,450)0000 $ 4,252.04 4.27%160.2
24
 $ 4,876.55 ($3,450)0000 $ 4,783.54 6.75%180.3(Can modify weights based on which P/Es you think are most likely)
25
Present Value Share Price Target($3,450)0000 $ 5,315.04 9.03%200.15
26
$3,318.90($3,450)0000 $ 5,580.80 10.10%210.15
27
Implied Return of Price Target($3,450)0000 $ 5,846.55 11.13%220.1
28
7.17%1(L28 must sum to 1)
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100