ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	211,000	217,016	223,126	225,760	231,823	237,809	230,631	236,225	242,359	248,285	254,318	254,799	260,045	265,085	270,494	272,272	276,847	280,944	284,909	288,432	274,363	279,861	284,743	288,756	146,233	150,639	155,178	159,771	164,588	160,145	164,659	169,632	174,613	179,822	185,239	190,830	189,926	195,566	201,483	188,623	190,224	195,970	201,797	207,792	213,705	220,251	227,005	234,542	242,449	248,283	256,737	263,825	271,518	278,732	284,747	285,019	291,257	263,530	271,102	278,163	285,300	290,603	296,210	302,687	274,326	251,803	260,413	272,178	283,852	281,061	263,416	266,685	274,150	283,191	291,397	298,988	305,606	312,141	318,137	322,467	325,672	329,073	302,260	302,346	307,826	313,672	286,669	292,157	297,553	298,529	303,432	281,824	203,660	209,841	216,299	218,435	225,475	234,565
37	2	205,000	208,983	214,610	220,672	226,775	232,852	238,795	244,880	251,113	249,049	254,425	260,033	261,262	266,212	145,827	150,214	154,721	159,383	164,183	169,127	174,214	25,426	26,212	27,025	27,866	28,733	29,244	10,497	9,113	9,412	-11,478	149,233	153,744	158,393	162,839	161,960	166,860	171,458	174,747	180,039	185,487	191,088	196,245	202,171	208,255	203,979	210,160	216,557	223,531	230,833	213,976	219,075	226,014	233,275	240,870	248,775	256,915	264,743	272,093	279,196	285,805	292,560	298,809	284,967	267,016	276,677	253,572	263,830	275,547	287,245	297,868	306,522	311,595	200,324	206,376	202,755	206,514	212,882	218,950	225,649	232,794	240,087	247,481	123,553	127,311	131,183	134,789	129,561	133,351	137,403	140,436	144,703	149,100	152,715	157,230	159,800	164,612	169,487	174,570
38	3	205,000	196,338	200,192	206,193	212,214	218,250	222,491	204,494	210,516	216,555	220,948	226,971	230,007	235,354	230,643	214,554	220,755	226,662	232,915	239,357	223,389	229,649	236,303	241,696	220,464	226,985	233,792	240,555	247,666	242,004	89,536	91,783	94,570	96,070	98,992	96,245	98,702	101,708	104,319	106,756	110,001	113,337	116,711	120,212	100,685	103,740	106,887	110,126	113,457	116,890	120,428	124,069	92,587	95,399	98,278	101,267	104,348	107,473	109,872	113,211	116,653	120,202	113,917	117,386	120,961	124,635	119,665	121,713	103,436	102,927	105,437	108,309	111,213	114,599	118,072	121,656	125,028	128,540	132,449	136,476	138,371	142,393	146,399	150,149	154,666	159,089	163,592	168,364	173,465	178,721	167,042	165,027	170,033	159,146	163,515	166,469	171,385	176,544	181,846
39	4	205,000	210,525	216,538	222,541	228,656	234,740	240,390	245,005	251,238	257,233	262,646	267,436	271,711	263,688	264,694	270,137	275,031	279,359	282,911	286,705	290,070	289,781	291,427	294,765	298,282	301,834	305,640	300,084	303,785	306,930	309,622	313,024	315,036	316,708	318,156	319,287	320,246	321,419	322,417	313,939	315,959	318,250	320,296	320,923	322,298	315,012	318,834	321,989	328,011	332,127	336,302	340,795	343,722	347,232	346,956	349,997	352,486	354,907	342,159	345,432	336,425	322,719	324,138	329,426	334,271	339,717	348,189	342,897	355,571	367,986	378,555	384,692	388,574	376,664	382,943	387,316	391,291	394,211	396,953	392,372	394,396	379,069	379,347	377,389	377,702	379,079	381,699	381,316	380,751	380,693	380,721	380,484	365,889	264,986	272,438	279,483	285,509	274,709	286,677
40	5	205,000	206,031	210,688	216,757	222,840	228,067	234,065	240,140	246,344	252,514	257,481	262,776	267,517	271,845	275,711	280,197	284,213	263,677	268,925	273,515	278,013	282,025	286,953	290,430	294,308	282,865	288,013	292,720	296,961	300,557	303,430	293,471	297,102	300,228	296,430	288,436	292,003	295,496	298,646	301,318	304,338	307,497	310,360	312,814	299,777	303,035	304,899	135,851	139,953	144,181	148,538	153,017	155,293	131,438	135,419	123,335	75,398	77,707	80,088	82,496	70,987	73,151	75,396	76,121	3,823	3,872	3,946	1,988	2,021	-27,558	148,856	131,276	134,922	73,325	75,563	77,872	80,254	82,402	84,926	83,532	85,781	88,412	90,797	93,555	96,413	-12,104	149,184	150,410	154,795	156,399	161,134	155,719	147,302	151,380	155,935	110,699	112,332	115,721	119,198
41	6	205,000	211,000	200,467	206,470	212,503	200,331	206,303	212,316	218,380	224,316	230,375	236,406	242,307	248,363	254,401	251,276	257,817	256,606	174,462	179,712	184,491	163,661	168,592	173,174	141,807	146,091	150,493	153,262	155,963	160,001	164,769	169,288	174,156	165,292	169,018	172,541	108,081	111,369	114,759	118,065	121,280	106,819	110,055	113,396	116,840	113,196	110,260	113,604	95,489	98,344	101,172	93,756	96,600	92,454	93,839	96,543	99,483	98,430	98,034	101,009	9,567	9,715	10,058	10,410	10,773	11,141	11,519	11,879	12,258	12,578	12,629	12,715	12,804	13,237	13,672	14,055	14,523	15,008	15,511	16,030	16,252	-10,805	149,358	152,581	154,324	138,804	142,698	147,036	151,397	155,990	160,721	165,596	170,620	174,294	179,357	184,754	190,136	195,558	198,512
42	7	205,000	210,982	214,909	221,006	227,103	233,044	239,096	176,412	181,705	187,156	192,740	198,467	204,429	210,412	111,827	115,194	118,665	122,228	125,913	129,709	133,612	137,344	141,487	139,454	143,669	147,809	131,476	135,439	139,525	143,736	138,628	134,705	138,717	137,732	141,874	146,172	150,599	141,275	67,759	59,790	61,631	63,516	65,383	67,180	67,848	69,924	70,236	44,427	45,787	46,900	48,288	49,611	51,130	49,482	51,001	52,571	54,191	48,251	49,748	42,512	43,370	44,695	46,076	47,511	43,809	45,168	46,568	47,589	47,627	49,030	50,184	51,398	52,640	54,268	55,788	56,927	58,679	20,545	20,114	-6,083	149,560	142,547	117,806	93,399	9,449	9,785	9,808	10,158	10,480	10,200	10,558	10,860	-44,153	135,566	139,647	142,811	96,894	99,518	80,936
43	8	205,000	208,589	214,601	220,696	226,798	232,877	202,257	208,262	214,177	220,230	226,280	232,308	238,163	244,211	250,056	256,759	260,143	265,801	255,839	258,206	264,084	269,348	275,218	280,409	285,079	261,332	254,682	261,779	265,253	271,282	276,754	282,346	284,443	285,250	288,923	287,548	291,190	294,749	291,305	273,461	258,974	265,563	271,480	276,958	281,848	207,538	206,572	204,511	210,541	216,468	222,597	229,802	229,254	236,682	243,926	251,956	259,918	257,460	252,550	260,715	268,166	274,594	281,844	288,711	161,310	38,177	39,324	40,542	41,782	43,066	7,910	-19,143	149,133	153,656	158,284	163,075	168,013	173,038	178,282	183,682	188,936	174,196	179,156	184,447	190,029	191,945	196,678	202,635	145,221	149,282	153,581	158,240	163,042	166,517	142,307	146,592	151,008	154,118	158,526
44	9	205,000	210,997	180,806	176,656	181,955	187,020	184,013	189,533	188,846	194,512	199,373	205,359	187,796	193,441	199,256	205,179	211,261	217,403	221,106	213,364	219,541	207,368	207,173	213,365	219,674	226,177	228,129	234,939	241,885	248,919	256,024	262,999	266,190	271,839	275,411	280,128	284,390	288,508	292,233	295,954	224,403	222,501	229,079	235,764	103,088	97,939	99,936	92,772	95,582	98,479	101,465	104,537	105,594	105,132	80,811	83,275	85,816	88,251	58,627	60,427	62,259	64,176	5,351	5,560	4,820	5,008	5,202	5,360	5,544	4,697	-17,724	149,175	153,357	150,272	154,642	159,324	164,150	169,124	174,071	179,082	184,198	187,620	192,983	198,829	198,306	204,303	204,930	211,170	217,622	196,242	202,125	208,258	196,245	201,791	189,570	173,382	153,040	151,344	155,687
45	10	205,000	210,818	216,833	222,728	228,814	229,589	235,644	241,704	247,921	213,537	219,507	225,524	231,536	227,760	232,935	239,405	241,338	247,806	254,300	240,099	244,325	241,189	245,983	253,070	242,464	241,311	248,536	255,928	262,837	269,092	266,735	265,805	271,628	276,834	281,560	285,760	289,553	293,040	296,140	299,551	302,710	306,000	295,285	298,911	302,046	304,448	308,932	312,931	319,325	324,236	303,784	309,836	315,090	320,099	323,798	328,104	331,836	328,677	332,375	324,256	328,340	330,958	314,787	320,510	321,832	330,358	339,232	249,060	240,866	251,334	261,983	271,398	279,256	286,051	294,702	302,515	309,691	313,450	309,052	315,187	320,709	323,446	326,974	328,184	331,495	335,388	339,986	334,183	336,637	339,302	341,855	343,973	338,705	304,141	308,446	312,683	309,800	208,919	212,485
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000