ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	210,997	207,173	213,137	219,746	226,357	204,017	149,465	153,623	148,126	133,874	137,890	141,923	146,172	149,907	154,034	154,429	159,075	155,382	156,913	161,643	166,125	171,138	176,293	181,608	181,943	187,009	192,645	198,400	204,366	210,545	216,909	223,425	193,705	194,572	65,137	67,112	66,492	64,116	65,768	67,781	61,401	55,315	55,539	56,950	58,550	60,358	62,223	63,693	65,346	55,967	56,257	58,003	59,804	60,973	62,858	64,795	66,364	68,155	70,098	72,208	74,065	76,050	78,363	80,767	83,234	85,715	88,290	90,879	93,646	96,498	99,437	100,157	103,192	82,892	85,427	88,040	90,734	93,508	96,339	99,279	102,304	105,411	108,553	111,851	114,861	118,346	121,482	125,069	128,862	27,777	28,519	29,073	22,293	23,006	4,993	4,921	3,735	1,598
37	2	205,000	211,000	217,000	223,124	230,195	236,554	244,057	249,102	185,319	190,221	195,930	197,451	187,399	192,131	197,903	203,470	208,759	215,191	221,921	228,913	235,879	237,315	223,834	170,280	175,400	180,689	185,828	191,434	192,510	198,111	204,067	209,917	170,431	175,357	64,624	56,392	57,943	59,709	60,257	61,794	63,525	65,472	67,471	69,541	55,644	57,363	59,133	60,961	62,502	45,574	29,973	30,931	31,886	-150,106	103,623	106,787	104,684	107,450	110,729	114,107	117,587	108,230	111,533	114,055	117,530	121,047	124,729	128,460	106,961	110,211	113,503	116,788	120,339	123,997	126,629	130,342	109,137	112,463	113,158	116,005	117,412	120,097	119,143	122,664	126,373	130,155	132,463	102,426	105,540	104,618	99,775	79,814	82,251	84,765	84,940	78,881	81,296	67,025	69,025
38	3	205,000	211,000	216,999	223,123	230,108	234,577	242,008	241,146	249,715	258,344	265,616	272,963	282,867	291,215	297,910	305,277	310,882	313,229	318,531	319,881	304,140	308,313	231,742	230,384	237,354	232,034	238,609	245,178	251,778	79,731	80,760	83,198	83,727	86,235	88,840	91,527	94,293	97,149	100,096	90,407	93,160	95,996	18,046	-1,050	29,294	30,222	10,069	-3,225	-7,109	149,530	154,073	158,754	161,320	166,214	117,261	109,915	112,737	115,744	119,272	120,927	122,804	126,546	130,396	134,364	135,364	139,478	123,911	127,610	131,490	130,769	134,734	138,763	142,965	147,299	147,660	150,409	142,650	146,981	151,281	147,118	47,355	45,002	44,442	45,815	47,157	48,610	50,097	50,840	50,201	50,439	51,993	53,592	55,230	56,933	33,330	34,377	35,398	32,935	30,555
39	4	205,000	211,000	192,611	198,389	204,338	210,501	191,777	197,443	199,614	205,605	211,881	218,617	226,203	234,059	242,089	240,378	226,974	233,675	241,379	249,233	257,187	264,300	270,535	276,555	279,744	285,077	281,721	257,432	263,428	269,008	275,718	281,644	257,005	260,016	267,001	265,945	276,256	285,747	294,335	301,710	307,599	312,778	317,586	319,331	324,070	328,367	332,185	335,803	338,675	340,084	341,383	344,193	346,310	348,677	352,451	354,184	355,933	353,322	353,876	354,033	353,939	352,197	351,810	351,158	350,517	341,054	341,432	341,658	312,899	315,415	317,489	319,211	320,504	321,784	322,753	323,686	324,394	325,040	311,016	313,004	315,076	317,538	320,631	321,492	299,146	303,277	307,530	311,666	314,504	316,923	319,239	321,053	323,755	325,960	327,975	330,280	332,403	334,237	335,898
40	5	205,000	210,996	179,333	184,713	190,210	193,899	199,716	202,503	208,353	214,794	221,516	228,856	230,275	238,418	246,306	254,838	253,031	222,083	229,182	236,496	243,512	250,848	258,034	264,930	268,789	274,275	279,652	250,493	232,096	238,102	245,563	253,018	231,000	238,149	182,269	185,809	180,834	186,286	191,907	197,387	200,639	206,607	212,948	219,171	224,250	231,407	233,967	241,453	248,759	251,159	96,497	99,039	64,341	65,705	66,903	68,966	-64,892	147,678	152,164	152,488	157,100	161,870	166,782	165,600	132,158	136,167	140,303	144,562	148,951	152,986	157,618	162,196	136,377	140,517	142,669	147,000	151,150	155,737	160,461	165,323	170,332	175,493	180,794	186,196	191,823	197,615	202,558	200,044	206,057	212,138	218,488	225,120	231,942	238,104	245,265	248,825	239,439	246,606	239,832
41	6	205,000	209,830	215,729	221,844	228,730	222,945	229,686	216,713	223,398	230,477	237,956	229,774	236,090	237,204	245,384	253,517	261,732	269,133	276,701	283,446	289,425	293,272	297,348	299,291	303,474	300,437	303,189	305,328	282,212	277,541	276,557	282,453	287,649	293,104	297,866	304,344	314,243	323,000	330,183	336,470	340,594	343,975	331,119	335,099	339,061	342,551	345,578	348,442	348,821	350,676	351,223	352,791	354,628	348,477	350,476	352,392	354,249	356,562	356,219	356,233	355,980	351,331	351,008	350,418	349,834	349,011	348,787	348,450	317,974	320,088	321,797	323,177	324,206	324,948	325,656	326,359	326,836	323,286	322,814	323,867	325,077	326,753	329,225	331,139	332,672	335,348	337,494	339,983	340,748	341,191	316,915	320,035	321,630	324,173	326,430	328,005	330,282	309,996	313,447
42	7	205,000	210,998	216,906	223,029	229,922	236,997	244,534	253,181	262,278	270,401	201,515	207,611	214,262	219,474	226,638	234,032	239,238	247,122	255,065	263,019	270,233	276,368	281,704	286,932	284,472	289,291	292,075	293,441	272,753	266,491	273,338	274,128	279,912	285,845	290,725	283,963	294,081	303,186	311,260	313,359	318,658	323,235	327,465	332,337	336,178	339,827	343,004	346,013	348,301	349,896	350,492	348,417	350,550	322,991	327,779	309,289	313,747	318,473	321,414	323,627	325,583	327,310	328,800	312,327	314,689	317,082	319,274	321,196	322,715	324,490	325,859	325,917	326,696	327,474	327,972	323,802	324,500	325,220	326,050	326,840	327,813	202,556	208,541	214,832	220,476	226,433	230,524	236,708	243,703	203,084	209,204	215,529	221,616	216,946	209,365	215,709	222,252	228,980	235,923
43	8	205,000	211,000	217,000	222,711	206,957	151,001	23,594	24,302	23,944	24,638	25,383	25,661	26,421	27,221	-39,970	110,634	113,921	98,456	101,344	102,860	105,253	108,132	111,400	114,764	118,232	121,806	125,168	128,954	132,843	111,180	113,950	117,382	120,922	120,555	12,714	12,520	474	482	-4,225	149,596	153,716	130,209	133,796	137,854	141,735	146,037	150,280	154,025	158,240	162,731	167,669	172,757	176,984	182,354	175,280	180,594	186,065	191,272	197,064	202,243	208,362	214,634	221,054	220,728	227,249	234,006	240,885	247,848	245,726	252,242	258,546	264,831	270,605	275,930	274,489	279,333	283,750	287,851	281,274	285,708	289,949	293,672	298,379	302,466	306,075	310,426	311,108	301,143	297,572	301,266	304,751	308,699	311,894	315,094	295,513	297,314	301,643	305,619	309,333
44	9	205,000	210,996	216,990	23,487	24,191	24,916	25,621	-13,250	149,123	153,595	158,207	26,092	26,769	22,121	22,772	23,084	15,354	306	332	324	-874	149,675	154,194	158,841	159,445	164,256	168,900	173,998	173,304	178,517	183,880	183,557	188,856	194,536	95,724	98,617	101,590	104,665	106,497	108,932	112,141	114,079	117,193	120,754	124,115	111,649	113,864	117,315	120,581	123,881	120,495	124,064	127,795	130,589	133,955	137,322	141,495	143,411	147,722	152,210	156,806	161,567	166,470	171,496	172,081	177,293	182,663	188,195	193,891	199,747	205,700	211,859	218,128	224,519	230,992	237,589	244,255	171,570	176,765	180,463	185,926	190,936	196,701	188,366	60,769	53,102	-76,375	147,297	151,662	156,239	160,968	165,835	149,322	151,308	143,348	147,692	152,079	156,680	161,430
45	10	205,000	211,000	214,953	211,478	218,008	224,685	220,867	225,854	217,015	193,881	199,703	166,182	171,166	176,308	95,203	39,652	39,086	40,239	36,528	37,644	38,795	10,831	11,090	8,756	9,044	-5,650	149,469	153,984	158,625	114,050	117,350	120,876	124,510	126,546	130,358	133,598	137,626	141,782	143,780	147,792	152,266	156,877	139,372	143,598	147,651	152,123	143,220	147,570	151,360	155,644	160,088	164,950	168,914	174,040	178,431	183,837	174,925	178,216	183,235	188,789	193,159	198,661	204,677	210,832	180,840	184,993	190,556	196,322	202,264	208,360	203,052	209,160	215,378	221,711	228,100	234,625	241,239	243,234	250,115	186,796	192,449	198,180	204,163	210,189	216,511	223,157	229,984	236,807	243,777	250,899	258,111	265,217	271,762	277,788	283,329	288,683	293,649	298,181	302,443
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000