ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	211,000	189,478	195,083	200,911	206,927	213,128	219,443	224,760	230,995	237,273	222,964	227,837	234,060	240,245	246,422	253,746	259,013	266,798	262,425	269,477	246,370	253,839	260,980	247,273	254,390	242,436	249,283	256,254	258,468	264,552	270,144	275,143	280,108	275,342	280,535	281,910	286,096	289,991	293,450	296,765	294,772	295,130	298,005	300,300	303,224	306,497	308,566	306,950	296,386	299,003	301,548	303,761	305,888	307,658	309,237	266,986	272,340	277,201	281,630	285,707	289,480	156,516	151,482	156,064	160,781	148,218	152,700	147,958	152,441	129,961	131,164	133,203	137,244	140,750	145,025	149,427	153,963	158,602	163,407	168,352	87,280	89,932	92,678	94,672	97,564	100,538	103,608	106,762	109,099	112,424	115,851	119,369	122,961	114,972	113,360	116,702	112,405	115,836
37	2	205,000	211,000	186,831	192,428	198,197	204,143	210,270	216,522	221,689	227,947	234,186	240,545	246,322	242,452	248,730	90,067	92,786	95,320	98,192	94,645	97,504	86,948	89,305	92,006	88,451	91,140	93,914	79,793	77,679	80,059	81,638	84,139	84,606	87,193	89,856	92,562	95,328	98,226	101,190	104,257	105,823	108,721	111,795	114,896	118,397	110,537	107,972	111,257	114,649	118,144	121,690	125,382	129,178	133,098	136,250	124,571	56,369	58,099	47,341	33,240	34,281	35,360	36,475	37,610	37,070	36,728	35,050	36,147	37,279	38,442	-26	149,739	154,280	46,308	47,731	49,215	50,743	49,788	51,284	52,814	48,565	48,430	46,493	47,935	48,320	49,822	45,189	46,496	47,893	49,176	50,703	50,770	52,277	53,902	55,574	42,078	43,389	31,591	28,757
38	3	205,000	211,000	217,000	223,476	222,392	228,797	235,653	242,529	249,235	255,818	261,734	267,204	272,149	273,393	277,421	281,101	286,293	291,916	295,511	300,512	305,141	308,937	312,478	315,385	317,712	319,622	321,198	322,184	323,261	324,137	320,744	321,601	322,566	323,806	324,921	325,512	326,585	326,978	327,451	327,752	328,294	328,675	328,374	328,495	328,498	329,136	330,578	330,613	330,555	324,390	324,585	322,409	321,861	322,432	303,207	289,583	292,689	295,931	298,757	288,822	292,284	295,540	292,271	295,820	296,010	299,256	302,138	304,759	307,033	309,147	307,046	309,161	310,632	311,793	313,553	314,946	316,437	311,777	310,240	312,002	313,698	314,905	318,223	320,120	322,867	325,122	328,333	331,450	317,682	321,621	325,140	328,314	329,767	332,752	335,650	338,637	341,953	344,721	333,384
39	4	205,000	210,998	181,968	187,427	193,050	198,762	204,725	210,841	214,969	211,130	216,908	191,225	196,860	201,709	207,732	117,390	64,769	66,378	63,652	65,578	67,566	69,618	71,728	73,715	75,959	78,274	80,593	83,042	84,450	86,939	89,596	73,826	74,217	76,493	78,367	80,751	83,210	85,744	83,302	82,591	77,635	78,185	80,585	83,004	85,549	-79,627	147,203	151,674	156,279	159,924	131,696	135,676	139,638	143,875	140,190	144,445	148,826	153,329	157,972	157,903	162,687	167,618	172,629	177,807	183,179	188,710	194,412	200,289	205,052	210,479	216,638	222,685	226,992	233,366	232,753	235,133	241,775	248,493	255,309	261,701	267,510	255,503	262,135	253,321	258,311	265,282	272,272	263,746	269,215	272,913	279,462	275,705	281,025	281,669	287,355	293,237	296,751	302,038	305,960
40	5	205,000	211,000	186,508	192,100	196,526	159,394	138,822	142,720	146,998	151,227	120,276	123,890	127,615	131,378	135,331	137,408	141,456	145,047	149,404	153,905	158,542	132,751	136,737	140,861	145,121	147,828	152,302	155,207	159,908	164,754	169,099	173,402	178,651	184,061	189,569	195,261	201,155	207,209	213,374	219,295	225,085	231,192	237,734	243,891	250,560	255,168	261,851	267,687	272,984	277,754	281,867	285,877	286,443	287,404	290,795	293,703	281,130	285,298	289,051	292,427	295,582	298,555	301,303	297,580	300,738	303,681	306,200	298,936	266,312	271,791	276,820	268,871	273,776	278,342	282,815	286,733	290,571	294,008	292,723	203,749	209,825	216,125	222,672	229,447	223,833	64,881	66,879	63,483	65,436	59,311	61,142	63,031	38,298	39,493	37,997	39,121	40,332	41,596	29,393
41	6	205,000	210,998	216,998	223,467	229,748	236,286	242,950	249,953	256,780	262,774	267,771	266,987	271,952	276,319	280,181	283,600	288,612	206,877	213,201	205,460	211,679	218,071	224,660	231,372	238,184	245,086	251,975	258,713	264,990	270,683	262,285	268,078	273,424	278,587	283,330	287,904	287,502	291,433	294,447	297,531	300,515	303,207	303,555	305,816	307,769	310,088	312,866	314,397	315,676	316,782	317,642	318,509	319,209	319,900	320,383	320,831	321,259	322,099	308,973	310,681	312,277	312,874	276,891	260,538	247,916	254,894	261,410	267,390	272,767	277,740	282,225	283,249	246,226	252,693	259,363	247,318	253,706	260,223	266,202	271,677	276,345	277,183	283,037	288,297	293,241	295,846	300,260	276,166	270,555	277,299	273,245	279,688	280,899	255,430	240,397	248,100	256,270	263,876	271,148
42	7	205,000	210,997	216,997	223,390	156,463	161,153	165,988	170,965	175,834	181,111	186,544	192,146	197,910	200,492	206,476	146,617	136,597	140,712	144,947	149,312	153,811	158,393	163,170	168,094	173,171	178,388	181,325	185,999	191,622	197,419	203,394	209,042	146,047	150,422	154,983	159,665	164,442	169,414	174,538	138,885	143,099	147,277	151,669	156,273	161,017	165,886	170,453	175,622	177,819	183,209	188,760	190,581	196,357	202,297	208,376	214,526	220,743	223,064	229,287	235,689	242,257	248,968	255,808	262,319	268,251	273,804	278,779	283,323	287,283	291,044	294,449	297,580	300,017	302,276	301,369	299,615	295,645	263,411	254,967	261,388	76,901	51,622	53,184	54,827	56,521	58,268	60,071	53,459	55,111	56,652	51,960	53,328	54,984	56,692	58,448	54,411	56,093	52,951	54,461
43	8	205,000	203,049	186,551	192,148	197,901	199,369	200,592	202,870	207,578	213,524	219,648	225,849	232,110	238,366	244,400	250,649	256,465	260,310	268,025	267,902	274,605	280,488	285,981	290,792	295,007	298,055	301,337	304,195	306,778	309,027	310,914	312,157	310,267	280,062	279,670	277,857	278,401	283,071	287,111	286,401	290,341	293,856	296,999	297,237	161,399	166,287	129,632	128,630	132,544	136,575	132,785	136,821	140,958	145,214	149,622	154,159	158,819	163,622	168,570	172,634	134,593	113,640	117,103	120,658	111,354	114,729	115,439	118,939	122,555	118,671	109,796	86,303	88,925	91,637	94,396	75,612	77,921	79,942	82,360	84,874	87,463	85,716	63,139	65,081	67,082	67,385	69,461	71,599	73,778	76,039	78,367	80,724	49,830	36,828	19,381	20,018	20,665	21,334	21,789
44	9	205,000	202,828	208,817	215,064	220,772	192,275	197,978	203,918	209,896	215,999	222,145	228,315	226,653	232,326	237,834	244,048	212,680	219,165	226,047	233,068	240,213	247,489	254,989	262,047	268,255	274,017	277,069	281,886	285,624	289,616	291,471	247,475	254,333	258,835	252,199	259,186	265,459	268,618	273,964	278,775	283,344	286,521	272,040	276,976	279,987	284,553	288,545	274,738	279,435	283,656	277,832	282,169	223,813	230,191	236,615	243,104	248,995	255,810	262,065	267,792	273,007	277,758	282,284	286,476	290,531	294,295	294,199	297,475	300,329	283,264	284,141	288,103	291,421	293,123	296,434	295,869	298,135	300,935	289,276	292,217	295,517	299,511	303,819	307,813	307,390	310,927	284,335	285,876	291,672	297,225	302,271	306,405	310,654	311,274	315,492	317,066	321,508	325,422	223,562
45	10	205,000	210,998	213,828	216,951	223,146	218,023	224,509	229,287	235,753	242,177	248,554	255,061	254,237	260,239	265,543	269,117	247,410	255,187	263,181	270,304	276,855	282,595	287,937	292,607	296,671	300,252	303,361	305,342	307,833	309,978	311,807	313,377	315,023	316,548	243,116	245,015	251,681	258,521	264,705	253,334	259,995	264,438	270,060	275,165	264,914	270,704	276,211	280,754	270,195	274,992	279,443	283,404	263,721	269,291	274,266	276,316	280,655	281,426	285,511	289,224	292,653	295,906	297,243	284,110	272,873	278,053	282,678	286,904	290,674	294,152	297,308	300,208	302,392	304,399	306,774	308,857	310,853	312,584	314,019	315,204	316,704	319,131	322,151	324,901	327,318	329,461	331,972	334,864	337,864	340,625	342,673	339,636	341,760	343,998	346,302	298,917	304,449	309,406	313,978
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000