ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	211,000	217,129	208,679	214,779	220,928	227,231	233,521	239,969	246,930	254,015	260,899	266,608	271,692	277,192	282,167	286,547	222,730	228,514	230,990	237,539	244,143	250,830	220,475	226,770	233,098	239,493	245,941	251,741	258,334	263,911	248,452	254,996	261,135	266,671	266,310	271,767	276,407	281,210	285,564	289,529	293,350	296,782	289,734	294,037	298,478	302,089	305,647	308,744	218,736	212,104	218,537	224,867	231,909	239,269	246,898	254,993	262,758	268,053	257,884	265,044	271,170	278,707	285,604	288,491	294,368	299,866	299,281	299,871	280,177	286,288	291,998	297,187	301,065	301,416	304,826	306,192	273,102	278,476	283,301	288,953	288,712	293,713	279,455	279,443	285,902	293,018	300,756	303,893	292,741	298,738	304,291	309,615	313,029	315,853	318,722	318,160	322,810	326,779
37	2	205,000	210,999	217,128	223,223	229,490	235,435	241,892	233,853	229,984	236,892	232,745	238,694	245,448	252,273	259,252	257,168	262,157	267,816	273,041	277,399	279,576	283,849	280,731	284,363	288,029	291,274	294,163	296,761	299,163	301,083	303,305	305,188	306,800	307,643	308,230	309,800	311,578	313,373	312,708	314,461	283,733	288,022	291,888	289,864	285,069	290,278	294,891	298,979	150,212	154,768	159,304	164,114	155,897	160,609	165,371	170,272	175,358	180,556	185,978	173,612	178,859	184,263	189,826	182,708	188,234	193,928	199,585	205,343	211,597	215,005	221,626	222,921	229,566	236,390	232,055	235,547	238,296	243,479	250,495	257,504	264,903	271,608	277,689	283,831	262,085	170,172	6,945	3,488	3,645	3,474	3,636	3,664	3,327	3,493	3,598	3,757	3,917	4,037	4,210
38	3	205,000	210,998	217,120	220,707	222,466	225,013	231,218	235,955	242,435	249,721	220,015	226,492	233,010	239,143	246,058	251,800	258,655	264,750	270,238	275,412	276,908	281,419	285,511	288,835	292,082	294,968	291,184	293,707	296,327	298,567	301,009	303,109	304,904	306,591	308,027	309,624	311,422	290,040	287,838	291,319	294,829	298,222	294,944	283,190	287,966	292,977	297,264	301,177	304,586	247,451	255,157	261,930	121,847	124,958	128,738	132,619	136,619	129,625	132,717	136,498	140,633	144,889	149,271	150,120	154,668	159,357	164,182	169,150	168,347	173,321	178,565	183,954	189,207	194,855	199,418	205,445	211,611	217,917	224,295	230,526	237,136	244,409	234,743	238,235	245,701	253,677	262,266	271,054	279,466	287,116	293,439	299,288	304,438	308,230	311,558	314,731	320,087	324,462	328,335
39	4	205,000	211,000	217,129	223,242	229,509	235,817	236,962	243,379	249,938	257,324	257,626	264,235	270,048	274,659	279,931	284,692	286,698	290,502	293,788	296,766	299,741	292,897	296,014	298,767	301,109	303,097	284,863	288,295	291,452	294,636	297,421	299,842	301,929	300,114	302,134	302,791	305,166	306,405	307,614	285,242	289,255	287,981	291,851	173,816	86,010	88,470	91,111	93,895	95,057	97,443	100,390	103,384	106,140	106,155	109,360	112,076	115,385	118,863	122,464	126,124	129,924	103,006	101,620	104,655	107,838	99,678	102,497	105,577	108,796	106,066	109,291	93,710	96,256	99,192	102,217	105,319	78,307	80,703	83,161	11,427	11,009	8,235	2,483	2,581	2,703	2,823	2,950	3,016	3,159	2,977	3,125	-105,315	146,393	150,839	155,431	136,278	140,414	144,676	149,068
40	5	205,000	193,705	199,516	205,502	210,669	216,039	222,271	209,129	215,246	221,708	228,211	234,884	241,554	248,346	255,475	262,144	267,425	272,833	277,630	281,471	285,719	289,482	292,843	295,870	298,530	300,692	297,445	299,750	241,135	247,220	253,862	260,137	265,710	270,781	275,437	279,895	282,815	286,998	290,029	293,656	241,190	237,379	244,116	250,919	258,059	264,842	271,267	277,089	282,375	287,081	292,722	297,788	302,996	307,442	307,773	312,286	315,258	319,442	323,029	326,026	310,391	315,526	320,883	325,563	329,670	333,009	336,449	339,410	341,774	313,317	294,920	300,071	304,694	301,418	304,785	307,940	310,586	313,072	315,350	317,261	320,868	323,833	326,442	329,505	332,413	335,231	340,086	342,936	348,679	352,231	355,015	357,429	360,154	359,965	359,589	151,325	155,034	154,791	159,487
41	6	205,000	210,960	217,088	168,401	173,453	178,637	183,996	189,493	195,178	201,033	207,058	209,019	179,617	185,013	190,573	196,303	202,086	208,145	194,612	180,007	185,392	177,498	182,859	188,332	193,846	199,629	205,661	189,550	166,176	171,154	176,202	181,530	186,847	192,449	198,273	138,715	116,835	100,700	103,777	106,948	110,213	113,444	116,892	107,101	87,108	89,761	92,499	95,326	98,242	101,240	103,041	-39,795	148,445	152,777	157,392	122,736	126,445	130,004	133,940	137,998	142,148	146,450	142,406	146,718	150,913	155,487	147,045	146,353	150,795	155,343	159,556	164,385	143,334	147,682	152,162	156,770	161,507	161,160	166,034	171,055	176,209	166,073	97,976	100,539	103,601	106,751	109,997	110,078	113,433	116,559	115,071	118,584	121,686	125,402	92,128	89,552	92,213	94,374	97,254
42	7	205,000	211,000	217,129	223,175	229,442	179,378	184,760	190,299	195,904	201,781	207,824	214,006	220,280	142,336	146,616	150,962	155,511	159,887	124,985	128,733	132,625	136,637	140,771	144,887	148,052	152,500	157,118	161,871	166,636	171,365	176,538	180,400	160,967	165,843	138,037	133,230	137,284	141,446	145,714	146,281	150,727	155,294	159,164	163,062	167,990	173,069	177,151	180,287	185,709	179,476	184,848	190,415	195,782	201,690	203,561	207,053	205,173	210,516	216,948	223,573	80,385	80,402	81,683	84,173	81,809	84,311	86,546	89,191	91,241	93,803	89,332	92,055	94,528	97,412	100,383	103,438	106,588	99,445	96,239	68,647	70,743	72,904	75,127	38,020	38,723	39,874	41,114	16,986	-17,298	149,157	151,283	154,516	158,675	163,494	168,467	172,305	177,506	182,874	188,412
43	8	205,000	176,411	181,678	187,129	192,743	198,525	204,481	182,087	187,018	191,824	197,580	203,510	209,583	215,771	188,831	192,174	197,923	203,887	209,968	216,162	222,437	228,287	234,451	240,960	247,514	235,847	242,260	242,309	232,281	238,773	242,458	248,988	255,536	261,411	263,189	268,309	237,745	244,444	249,559	256,481	261,405	267,495	267,538	272,919	278,484	284,144	289,191	287,830	291,581	288,375	293,938	298,884	304,032	298,409	285,046	291,040	296,871	302,148	303,308	307,394	304,407	289,212	295,853	301,850	307,267	290,596	294,250	299,094	303,949	308,506	312,871	316,939	320,568	322,719	324,472	326,146	322,972	324,502	325,895	326,972	329,861	331,608	331,929	334,646	337,231	340,243	344,875	350,715	356,170	360,781	360,137	356,599	356,961	357,094	356,726	356,486	359,770	362,135	363,835
44	9	205,000	210,742	216,868	219,297	224,610	229,853	236,280	229,514	234,171	237,057	237,460	237,242	243,969	250,669	257,609	264,115	269,979	275,176	277,937	269,749	273,641	278,427	274,694	268,807	271,337	274,949	279,296	279,896	283,803	284,149	287,829	290,853	293,751	296,424	298,778	301,194	303,704	306,145	308,066	310,204	312,153	313,014	314,842	295,242	299,131	303,376	307,056	310,251	313,054	316,590	309,159	310,827	315,310	301,787	306,877	285,503	291,701	296,889	301,857	305,426	309,400	299,962	306,079	311,532	316,414	312,333	316,694	320,784	312,266	316,309	319,481	315,697	319,457	319,094	287,131	291,616	295,055	281,457	281,256	157,760	162,529	166,738	171,776	176,976	110,399	113,705	117,159	120,722	124,396	126,695	130,555	134,533	138,075	142,283	146,619	151,087	155,665	160,385	165,248
45	10	205,000	210,996	196,173	200,815	182,586	174,934	165,525	170,490	48,354	49,805	51,222	52,761	54,349	55,978	57,667	51,795	53,368	54,996	56,670	58,395	60,177	61,984	63,879	65,831	67,843	69,903	72,043	69,883	57,603	59,365	60,798	62,590	62,389	64,307	31,156	32,134	33,021	26,167	27,008	27,862	28,610	29,485	30,417	29,801	30,480	31,434	31,559	32,082	33,100	34,143	35,103	36,186	36,926	26,109	26,923	27,297	28,090	28,065	26,466	27,300	25,258	24,535	25,297	26,075	26,902	27,758	28,627	29,475	17,987	18,578	18,985	-4,825	149,468	154,000	158,669	163,452	168,342	173,058	178,289	183,677	189,224	191,154	196,932	202,765	208,720	171,059	176,233	181,561	187,055	192,390	194,154	199,973	205,441	211,186	217,346	223,922	231,175	238,654	246,342
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000