1
Chancy Islands
2
Blue Background = Input Parameter
3
A simulation model of a very simple society
4
A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.
All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6
\$
Variable Name
Explanation
Calculated Values
7
8
205,000
AvgInitialWealth
Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)
Calc on p. 2
CashWealth
Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10
200,000
HouseValue
Value of house
11
12
60,000
AnnualWorkIncome
Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.
Calc on p. 3Gain
Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13
-54,000
AnnualOrdinaryExpense
Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15
-40,000
MaxExtraExpense
Maximum extra expense from injury or illness
Calc on p. 4
ExtraExpense
Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16
-20.0
LuckParameter1
Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18
-200,000
MaxCatastrophicLoss
Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)
Calc on p. 5
CatastrophicLoss
Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19
-50.0
LuckParameter2
Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21
3.00%
InterestRate
Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned
Calc on p. 6Interest
Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23
0
BankruptcyFloor
Wealth amount under which wealth is reset
Calc on p. 7
BnkrptcyFee
Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24
150,000
BankruptcyResetLevel
After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26
250,000
TaxThreshold
Wealth level above which tax is levied
Calc on p. 8
TaxNBonus
Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27
10.00%TaxRate
Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32
WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)
Year
33
34
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
35
Household
36
1 205,000179,298126,611130,408134,310138,339141,482145,726150,098154,537159,174152,747157,333159,994164,783166,593171,585144,751148,71091,95494,72697,511100,447103,478106,60644,62946,00047,41448,87750,39145,08746,49547,94745,53046,95548,42649,94351,50453,11554,76254,92756,62858,36860,15561,96954,77156,44158,10859,80461,62658,54153,48755,11956,80358,52160,29462,10447,39148,50249,98951,52553,11149,45450,89852,43953,98819,7033,6082,9393,0633,1973,3343,3773,5203,5283,6803,8321,574-78,319105,638108,698111,998114,953117,161106,292109,528111,447114,790118,287121,885125,589128,799132,701136,715140,851145,109149,501146,254150,676
37
2 205,000211,000210,672190,397196,109201,938207,981214,125215,867222,077203,224209,276215,471221,814205,816211,984214,025218,912225,313209,201213,343219,640226,091232,551239,005245,516252,148222,321228,692235,295241,690248,526244,262251,098257,929264,22094,93896,23199,141102,16891,44594,11096,97095,26498,15699,48995,21798,104101,065104,122105,341106,50392,19794,99366,41968,39070,462-15,552148,890153,389158,025129,525133,090137,113140,847109,281112,467115,852114,941118,386121,979125,575129,38789,58854,09255,72057,42059,18761,01152,23353,84346,22647,55449,01950,53252,09553,31654,95356,65558,40360,10561,94363,77965,72627,81828,68629,5855,3855,581
38
3 205,000211,000217,068211,429217,656223,933227,823224,928231,298237,712244,002225,273231,798238,502245,699239,659246,074252,934259,348265,687271,731277,180281,943286,344290,185293,925296,735300,055303,182305,909308,016310,292312,401314,345316,051305,087305,103307,227309,880312,870315,495318,501321,528323,118327,257331,911328,906328,386334,443336,631341,547345,398348,932303,603290,683295,679301,847307,121312,366315,827318,727321,994325,078327,289328,445319,411306,062308,864312,902316,425319,356320,484313,504316,326319,128321,855326,110329,892326,851330,809294,175297,019248,706256,755255,397262,970229,434236,535243,531251,084258,756266,122266,286273,169278,694284,846288,524291,587296,910
39
4 205,000210,996197,880203,805205,339175,508180,773186,171191,756197,509203,375167,360172,38479,40666,74668,62370,68362,03458,55460,32162,14364,02565,95866,5653,5413,6703,8123,3773,382-5,427129,447113,579116,970120,535124,187127,953130,117134,084103,382106,537104,581107,772111,048114,23164,87866,16868,18270,16357,21530,79431,50232,47928,72029,40320,45621,06217,67418,22918,47313,99614,129-15,715149,234131,671135,652132,970136,849120,615124,148127,602131,456133,346137,391141,456145,743150,162149,704154,240158,915108,702111,977115,346105,493108,696110,977114,344117,825121,412118,275121,873125,576129,378132,381136,386140,488144,735149,115134,291138,353
40
5 205,000211,000216,857214,821221,115174,172179,396171,998177,158182,276187,653193,274199,072205,024208,955215,094213,864220,129226,544233,119216,603222,864229,031235,607242,228248,567255,628262,272268,388273,921276,427279,778261,622267,678273,204276,913281,600286,428290,768293,269296,933300,726225,068232,164239,624187,941193,589199,220202,076208,210214,692221,301228,361235,631243,557252,019260,396267,979275,204281,154282,862277,780267,262235,856242,545241,608248,838256,496263,899270,305276,464281,623262,180268,782274,938277,506284,226290,421290,935296,430301,641306,679311,183315,702319,627323,173326,213329,145331,628334,061254,930243,862239,765247,275245,111252,868260,462267,586274,306
41
6 205,000208,171214,224220,494226,901233,322240,070246,791235,279209,207165,049170,003175,103180,356185,674191,244196,969193,361161,713166,575171,374176,533181,842187,315189,083194,783171,159176,276181,607187,09739,63439,90841,08440,05040,89742,18640,46641,41042,71944,05444,81246,21044,01038,965-70,534147,480151,934155,463160,155164,987169,966175,083166,855171,826176,991182,319187,809186,892191,757197,54293,73696,58899,161102,165105,260107,297110,549110,049113,383116,821105,942109,130110,295113,645117,093104,835106,235101,388104,446105,894105,785107,857108,600111,897115,297118,803122,419125,417128,939132,834136,866141,002145,211146,923151,366155,940160,449165,297170,290
42
7 205,000210,997213,884203,535209,437215,580197,952201,776207,641213,742219,896226,119232,642239,328246,549253,900260,766266,232271,995277,338282,501283,105287,663291,145294,019297,443300,777300,674303,465305,945307,818310,111311,754313,750315,443316,996318,359320,358262,801269,244180,704186,179162,522167,433167,517172,092177,089182,432183,094188,615194,302200,152204,365210,592217,039221,643227,968235,105242,480249,507257,016252,900260,303266,903273,323276,672282,551285,801288,798293,925273,811279,725285,069290,047279,219284,733286,076292,162283,316271,395278,178284,019289,908295,675300,833305,091308,429312,505312,121315,782319,183322,800325,770314,865318,028321,764324,869306,619310,999
43
8 205,000210,966217,037223,356229,820236,128241,327248,069222,748211,756199,549205,489211,343217,593223,477229,430236,120238,470241,514248,250255,439246,931251,709258,551264,667269,634275,178280,278284,963288,854291,190294,835297,027299,362295,077298,307301,220304,549283,899283,899288,690293,561298,828304,539309,749315,211322,299309,164304,182308,841315,000294,360300,524291,834298,584303,668309,431314,276319,158322,157324,566327,449269,865275,843281,635279,843285,509260,442267,591274,114279,958285,435284,260287,800292,624245,625253,688236,104233,464240,651248,334255,647263,280268,729275,525281,828287,557291,208296,209274,730280,843286,498261,062265,718249,688257,622264,591270,503277,141
44
9 205,000210,756216,826223,138229,593235,990241,835245,993251,926258,369264,180265,364207,129213,287212,908219,283225,736225,326231,860238,331245,255250,853257,876264,079269,748275,045280,152284,859289,189293,041296,187293,305296,726298,667296,723299,818302,606305,818305,720309,014299,347302,211306,790305,010310,193133,875137,921138,031142,158146,451150,873155,431160,122164,707142,376146,602151,021155,550153,338157,970162,623167,539172,275175,507162,401148,580152,994157,583162,339167,245172,304177,515182,885188,368194,01921,58912,23912,65112,38712,33812,75213,05213,48813,93114,39314,19614,67414,53115,02115,51716,03016,54617,06614,48714,94815,40615,90416,41616,943
45
10 205,000210,999212,819219,062196,578202,475208,531212,647218,835225,085231,363237,868231,753238,457245,651252,975259,919266,058268,893274,477279,841250,999258,051264,380270,008275,369280,459285,142289,437293,260296,401299,421300,433303,347305,954308,285306,975309,866312,258315,074317,538179,744185,180185,713190,901196,227202,143206,442212,864219,648226,763234,102222,847228,687236,241244,293252,492246,610254,592261,938268,623275,171281,181282,637287,724292,539297,351301,577299,244303,676307,464307,651310,998314,128317,081319,806324,175327,987331,642318,260322,248326,068329,309330,258333,273334,170336,495338,022305,372309,523312,084316,101315,517319,317319,670321,887282,395288,098293,419
46
11 205,000
47
12 205,000
48
13 205,000
49
14 205,000
50
15 205,000
51
16 205,000
52
17 205,000
53
18 205,000
54
19 205,000
55
20 205,000
56
21 205,000
57
22 205,000
58
23 205,000
59
24 205,000
60
25 205,000
61
26 205,000
62
27 205,000
63
28 205,000
64
29 205,000
65
30 205,000
66
31 205,000
67
32 205,000
68
33 205,000
69
34 205,000
70
35 205,000
71
36 205,000
72
37 205,000
73
38 205,000
74
39 205,000
75
40 205,000
76
41 205,000
77
42 205,000
78
43 205,000
79
44 205,000
80
45 205,000
81
46 205,000
82
47 205,000
83
48 205,000
84
49 205,000
85
50 205,000
86
51 205,000
87
52 205,000
88
53 205,000
89
54 205,000
90
55 205,000
91
56 205,000
92
57 205,000
93
58 205,000
94
59 205,000
95
60 205,000
96
61 205,000
97
62 205,000
98
63 205,000
99
64 205,000
100
65 205,000