ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	211,000	217,024	221,561	202,415	208,368	214,365	219,844	226,033	217,739	224,185	221,134	209,254	214,494	220,784	227,137	225,861	232,299	238,460	245,108	251,823	258,427	264,355	266,653	271,665	277,105	281,567	285,517	289,365	292,803	296,426	299,796	302,676	207,958	214,142	220,437	225,486	231,971	234,375	241,193	248,370	255,009	262,285	268,871	252,928	250,300	257,847	265,280	272,531	279,567	286,119	291,985	298,005	305,629	311,709	294,551	273,748	280,057	287,090	293,454	292,755	299,234	303,972	294,743	301,629	307,974	304,382	310,163	323,854	331,572	337,861	342,800	346,356	350,892	357,933	351,640	358,289	363,642	368,894	382,046	430,210	863,364	1,188,803	1,450,606	1,648,849	1,788,204	1,883,511	1,970,807	2,000,724	2,005,660	1,990,472	1,958,703	1,892,554	1,875,785	1,825,052	1,767,569	1,710,273	1,630,259	1,555,191
37	2	205,000	211,000	217,024	220,221	224,195	230,284	236,223	242,477	248,882	255,597	236,425	207,277	213,479	219,777	226,167	232,622	239,222	245,877	224,338	230,609	212,878	218,834	224,579	229,405	219,643	225,744	232,085	238,656	244,348	251,041	258,001	264,427	270,202	264,141	269,958	272,029	277,258	282,032	286,804	291,142	294,641	298,853	303,157	306,705	304,979	308,655	312,011	316,362	320,656	321,074	325,283	328,796	329,619	336,143	340,328	345,531	350,023	353,785	356,992	358,186	361,035	359,379	359,761	364,654	368,856	372,152	375,082	183,868	188,971	194,653	200,526	206,592	207,767	112,815	116,245	119,724	123,282	125,949	128,984	128,566	12,003	12,180	12,669	13,197	13,563	14,266	15,023	4,090	4,581	5,030	5,562	6,112	6,668	5,753	5,904	-2,855	149,955	154,789	159,746
38	3	205,000	210,998	217,013	223,013	229,161	205,135	211,148	217,223	223,387	212,980	219,324	225,802	228,119	234,576	232,822	236,117	239,505	237,342	240,772	222,801	225,641	232,044	238,480	244,936	246,394	253,269	259,557	265,631	271,197	276,181	281,349	285,918	289,935	292,481	296,064	299,281	278,089	282,789	287,502	291,230	295,711	281,201	284,329	289,345	293,725	298,162	302,401	287,620	293,577	298,960	302,256	307,153	242,154	250,939	260,038	258,588	266,216	274,046	281,069	287,778	292,943	297,795	265,411	273,139	281,140	288,443	295,528	301,739	314,971	319,029	323,387	328,937	333,301	338,417	345,334	351,784	358,428	357,834	363,291	253,433	67,239	69,292	71,494	64,409	66,584	67,750	70,111	72,076	74,606	77,221	78,455	81,191	56,880	58,615	58,020	59,694	61,525	63,582	-16,384
39	4	205,000	209,650	215,655	221,655	225,602	231,692	237,773	244,036	250,397	257,095	262,231	252,614	259,759	266,113	270,703	275,833	276,629	280,477	284,630	288,488	281,849	285,846	289,379	292,455	295,440	299,190	301,693	290,383	293,731	296,223	299,760	302,865	304,886	307,291	309,680	311,786	313,811	315,625	292,786	228,914	235,764	242,786	247,398	254,783	261,735	268,171	272,909	279,451	280,749	287,466	293,542	298,963	304,598	311,993	318,285	324,406	327,330	332,194	336,582	340,344	342,102	346,397	206,662	212,981	219,777	226,888	234,377	242,139	253,133	262,741	271,512	279,401	286,316	286,094	294,855	291,423	299,741	307,203	172,164	177,375	157,632	162,397	167,391	172,605	178,034	178,404	184,084	189,494	195,547	201,790	208,114	215,112	195,282	201,042	207,346	214,121	220,957	227,599	51,479
40	5	205,000	210,992	217,016	223,016	229,164	232,576	227,741	233,922	240,244	94,665	97,184	100,104	102,624	105,712	108,854	111,962	115,109	118,463	115,814	119,312	122,915	126,564	130,391	109,044	-101,912	146,345	150,766	155,324	159,139	163,952	167,229	172,285	177,414	182,781	188,232	193,911	199,743	199,292	205,160	211,311	217,635	224,089	230,881	237,793	236,314	235,083	212,409	80,447	23,464	24,201	24,965	25,316	26,088	26,846	27,692	27,101	27,958	28,648	29,556	30,463	30,078	30,561	30,885	31,847	32,839	33,865	32,937	33,971	34,605	35,633	31,094	32,022	27,104	27,961	28,845	29,368	30,295	31,257	27,288	26,859	27,689	27,400	28,301	29,343	30,475	31,081	-74,734	147,603	152,277	157,040	162,133	167,377	172,582	177,787	183,460	189,320	195,040	201,226	207,589
41	6	205,000	210,779	212,620	218,221	224,321	228,317	234,335	240,576	246,962	253,647	260,679	267,170	273,275	278,627	283,267	283,073	287,301	291,002	294,266	294,116	296,926	299,682	302,007	303,958	302,038	226,494	232,915	239,094	245,780	252,504	259,495	265,802	271,110	276,286	281,035	285,477	289,615	293,289	293,445	297,260	296,428	264,949	271,525	277,453	198,980	204,972	76,112	77,637	45,972	47,385	48,834	50,341	51,895	39,930	41,164	42,442	43,751	45,105	46,505	20,099	-87,522	146,957	151,426	155,234	155,999	160,426	165,282	170,242	174,965	174,608	179,878	184,916	190,504	196,251	163,086	168,028	172,965	175,977	181,312	186,798	192,135	192,605	198,506	202,686	209,382	217,444	226,459	235,789	246,111	256,943	267,486	277,242	286,723	296,109	303,895	310,831	312,178	295,533	301,012
42	7	205,000	194,444	200,276	206,230	212,270	218,205	224,224	230,395	236,684	241,833	248,929	256,077	262,989	269,135	274,548	277,910	282,559	281,332	285,420	289,261	292,725	295,840	298,500	281,535	285,532	289,936	293,315	294,300	297,305	133,773	137,808	141,981	146,261	150,696	134,066	137,291	141,444	110,275	113,593	77,006	52,921	28,996	29,886	30,806	31,747	6,535	-2,103	135,522	139,617	143,839	148,192	98,078	96,915	94,654	97,534	99,295	102,310	102,302	105,403	105,261	108,401	111,232	113,633	117,078	104,628	104,605	107,787	108,409	111,275	114,642	118,113	121,693	125,384	63,894	65,856	67,881	69,967	66,721	68,779	70,863	73,016	74,597	75,708	78,171	80,768	83,487	86,288	84,237	87,132	90,098	93,177	96,349	94,044	96,894	100,161	103,246	106,297	109,821	113,428
43	8	205,000	201,048	205,665	173,394	178,596	183,950	146,936	124,769	128,512	132,367	131,278	135,222	139,283	143,462	147,001	151,429	155,984	160,683	155,240	159,920	164,742	169,710	174,619	164,042	168,996	173,599	127,658	114,529	117,906	112,432	115,838	119,353	109,869	113,194	116,617	120,147	112,888	96,523	99,374	101,782	104,840	108,013	107,474	108,716	112,007	100,181	102,692	105,497	108,692	111,986	115,383	118,870	121,334	125,008	110,180	113,121	116,559	120,087	122,615	98,880	88,885	91,135	93,929	62,312	64,218	63,435	65,381	67,388	68,933	70,539	72,665	74,881	77,168	79,526	81,301	83,790	86,352	88,996	91,711	94,509	97,371	100,328	103,364	106,653	110,104	108,010	111,579	114,829	117,257	121,143	125,019	129,064	127,736	130,781	135,068	110,767	113,866	113,160	111,576
44	9	205,000	211,000	216,887	197,882	203,819	209,541	215,565	194,639	126,128	129,908	133,794	137,813	140,887	145,121	149,482	121,900	124,541	126,544	126,602	129,607	133,038	137,019	141,159	131,109	121,196	92,298	95,097	97,595	100,558	103,614	106,755	109,899	113,238	116,682	120,211	123,759	127,505	120,629	124,148	127,735	131,583	131,443	135,388	139,474	143,681	145,310	149,683	153,034	157,654	162,333	167,234	129,606	133,539	137,582	141,749	143,939	148,302	136,081	138,965	143,187	138,668	141,341	145,484	149,884	154,411	96,051	98,976	-53,095	148,023	152,453	157,058	161,806	166,645	171,688	176,884	182,240	187,732	193,287	199,142	205,162	212,759	243,527	274,629	305,953	333,294	356,215	375,979	370,665	383,803	394,557	403,062	380,993	387,603	394,737	398,888	401,820	404,063	392,285	392,118
45	10	205,000	209,876	215,827	221,539	227,677	233,394	239,479	245,344	251,775	258,348	250,873	242,706	248,249	255,358	261,813	247,042	253,919	259,510	243,578	249,632	256,407	262,620	268,146	273,099	277,832	282,830	286,814	290,617	294,101	297,087	300,623	303,631	295,136	223,546	230,034	186,416	191,088	178,617	184,006	189,558	193,082	198,293	204,261	210,380	216,673	223,193	229,934	235,636	243,136	243,415	251,346	247,214	169,724	158,441	161,745	166,643	171,687	169,579	174,714	179,995	185,451	190,597	189,007	194,713	200,590	206,662	213,073	217,773	225,662	232,840	240,972	249,290	192,255	198,066	203,097	173,470	178,723	147,721	118,309	121,277	124,943	128,542	22,734	23,575	24,533	25,558	26,651	27,350	28,184	29,407	30,641	31,940	-17,430	117,565	121,433	125,430	129,174	133,384	137,693
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000