ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	210,316	216,347	222,372	228,429	234,602	240,457	247,310	254,503	261,794	270,178	277,183	257,929	264,341	270,860	278,177	285,039	289,993	294,644	241,623	248,833	251,592	258,856	266,736	106,177	109,373	107,172	110,398	113,530	77,094	79,007	80,669	83,119	84,296	86,446	89,071	91,462	64,935	66,855	68,784	70,898	73,077	74,573	76,865	79,228	81,663	84,171	86,755	84,060	86,633	89,163	91,890	92,943	95,780	98,682	101,657	104,616	107,006	110,265	82,574	65,335	67,346	68,834	70,956	73,054	74,966	75,564	77,372	79,752	82,203	84,726	87,020	89,695	92,450	95,288	98,206	101,195	104,272	57,767	59,546	61,382	-5,080	103,498	106,346	109,576	112,913	116,351	119,892	123,530	127,269	130,697	134,586	138,502	120,523	123,851	127,600	131,466	135,052	110,254
37	2	205,000	211,000	202,719	208,709	214,730	209,282	215,509	221,831	227,460	220,287	227,245	234,421	239,605	208,246	214,329	212,167	218,668	225,356	232,115	239,072	246,208	253,647	261,102	268,863	101,947	105,015	107,018	65,743	66,410	68,417	70,489	72,628	74,371	76,635	78,556	80,735	60,436	62,255	63,403	65,355	67,366	64,956	66,958	66,566	68,620	66,324	34,497	34,198	35,281	36,391	37,537	38,483	9,976	10,319	7,993	8,265	8,050	8,335	8,056	8,351	7,974	8,267	7,982	8,163	8,425	8,398	8,320	8,481	8,760	9,079	9,334	9,367	8,037	8,311	8,625	8,943	8,193	8,480	5,827	4,995	5,194	856	-4,283	149,588	152,024	147,993	152,483	157,106	161,861	166,754	60,342	62,167	64,061	63,733	65,675	67,572	69,636	71,489	73,348
38	3	205,000	210,795	216,219	222,244	221,533	227,123	226,848	230,814	237,564	244,210	242,883	250,712	257,968	264,758	271,248	258,819	266,295	272,980	278,832	284,270	289,282	294,080	290,585	296,775	298,910	308,117	316,127	317,055	320,037	329,826	338,402	345,776	351,743	357,536	365,045	364,674	367,948	369,988	371,950	373,270	374,218	374,702	374,446	374,919	374,923	371,650	371,422	371,206	346,578	348,423	349,564	350,914	353,319	237,843	246,502	255,512	264,536	265,375	273,697	281,394	279,118	286,883	266,487	274,021	128,133	131,696	135,317	138,603	139,831	144,085	142,049	146,058	150,484	154,998	159,098	163,930	168,891	173,998	179,227	184,650	190,238	195,990	201,594	207,397	213,633	220,015	226,561	233,229	229,720	236,588	243,747	235,457	242,997	250,684	257,753	264,428	271,202	277,589	284,443
39	4	205,000	210,998	217,016	222,672	228,693	119,248	122,826	126,378	129,916	132,895	136,567	140,669	143,726	147,835	148,224	152,381	156,961	161,649	166,414	171,426	139,737	126,620	115,946	119,437	123,036	126,734	130,541	134,449	138,043	139,666	134,556	138,596	103,177	104,098	80,160	82,605	40,792	42,061	42,977	44,283	45,584	46,976	48,035	49,531	40,361	41,630	42,936	42,455	32,804	19,761	20,407	18,810	19,420	20,051	20,338	19,987	20,625	20,534	21,198	13,757	8,793	-145,130	145,114	142,294	146,607	114,842	117,956	121,551	95,712	15,365	-4,550	149,616	154,146	158,826	161,519	165,208	145,497	148,188	152,381	156,998	161,747	166,641	171,326	176,101	177,962	183,330	188,881	161,009	165,830	-21,770	148,891	153,269	157,893	162,414	167,316	172,369	176,910	148,013	152,154
40	5	205,000	211,000	211,203	217,221	223,265	227,931	226,903	233,470	156,042	148,695	124,925	128,637	132,502	133,474	136,750	140,817	145,024	149,388	153,887	158,523	163,275	168,184	159,400	164,194	169,119	171,639	176,802	181,574	45,717	47,077	48,508	49,988	17,594	18,082	18,244	-4,326	143,644	147,998	152,485	153,206	157,164	161,932	104,208	107,389	110,668	113,992	106,232	106,032	109,273	112,566	115,995	117,539	96,068	94,043	96,892	31,021	8,497	8,768	9,079	9,396	9,341	9,497	9,249	9,584	-18,148	149,175	104,175	107,350	110,628	114,005	116,653	119,905	123,565	108,407	111,720	115,132	118,629	90,163	92,912	95,746	98,665	101,676	104,400	105,399	102,466	70,232	72,389	74,438	74,209	76,472	78,460	80,841	79,140	81,537	83,972	86,452	87,670	89,722	83,667
41	6	205,000	210,953	216,997	188,568	194,225	200,038	206,039	212,165	218,472	225,024	219,072	225,897	231,331	238,162	127,591	131,427	135,368	139,437	125,390	129,172	133,057	115,968	118,321	117,248	119,109	122,693	126,313	129,950	132,811	136,810	136,307	140,421	142,742	135,406	139,054	143,266	145,717	132,873	136,906	141,063	138,455	142,560	141,233	144,729	149,120	153,651	158,319	148,560	153,077	157,720	162,506	167,434	172,502	72,685	58,389	60,013	41,004	42,263	43,579	44,938	41,503	42,785	43,535	44,505	45,899	-43,165	148,375	152,883	155,767	160,460	165,333	170,044	169,901	175,060	179,372	184,630	183,843	189,342	195,066	199,641	205,679	211,976	218,269	223,262	229,821	236,079	243,037	230,640	225,232	231,976	238,948	246,692	254,345	261,958	269,249	273,516	279,688	261,005	266,382
42	7	205,000	210,974	217,018	222,969	208,629	214,513	214,609	220,918	227,235	232,696	240,434	248,176	255,730	262,653	239,020	235,201	242,859	246,429	247,504	254,910	262,012	268,738	214,005	220,673	227,504	235,760	244,354	243,242	252,774	263,248	273,079	282,152	284,257	279,131	288,189	293,431	300,044	304,814	310,265	308,338	313,072	317,267	320,931	324,408	327,640	330,488	332,966	335,377	306,325	310,698	290,840	133,513	137,552	141,727	143,698	146,352	150,675	155,239	159,945	153,926	158,598	163,405	164,923	169,888	162,828	166,643	171,313	176,508	181,860	106,843	95,251	97,861	100,860	103,950	107,114	110,387	111,504	114,890	118,375	121,970	88,490	91,186	93,663	95,703	98,466	101,470	104,565	107,749	109,749	113,079	41,333	42,585	43,892	45,240	46,565	47,991	1,614	-7,895	149,381
43	8	205,000	188,413	194,065	199,887	205,884	198,300	204,249	210,338	216,594	223,056	229,226	236,465	234,126	241,061	248,310	256,630	264,633	271,525	277,482	257,297	246,117	253,324	236,598	243,935	251,683	260,880	269,335	234,271	243,075	252,937	262,961	271,911	280,381	288,743	295,857	302,699	306,476	311,811	316,889	321,324	325,266	328,722	331,659	334,728	337,314	339,382	341,275	343,145	344,789	346,745	347,807	349,249	352,179	355,047	361,348	366,523	371,395	375,708	379,420	361,982	359,597	361,284	366,063	368,321	370,201	373,874	376,751	377,973	378,606	375,722	378,271	380,399	380,602	380,524	380,375	287,249	274,893	281,845	288,494	294,849	300,573	305,932	303,329	307,584	304,339	307,333	310,282	312,871	314,066	316,888	320,573	324,850	328,715	331,344	325,077	328,227	330,780	328,080	332,646
44	9	205,000	210,958	217,002	221,834	224,910	231,061	237,933	210,719	216,989	210,988	161,302	166,146	170,963	176,096	181,387	186,799	192,412	198,189	180,224	170,612	175,739	180,477	183,404	188,889	194,572	168,765	137,118	140,691	144,902	149,263	153,753	158,345	163,125	167,896	172,554	177,770	182,759	188,286	193,982	197,107	203,071	209,194	215,588	222,246	229,113	236,210	243,508	251,059	258,756	266,107	272,905	279,228	285,966	285,252	293,681	300,217	307,617	314,467	320,742	326,291	320,788	326,751	332,736	336,760	340,268	345,158	347,203	350,063	352,413	354,692	358,265	360,953	362,327	363,194	347,117	347,842	347,029	350,366	353,355	356,272	358,546	359,665	357,052	357,938	346,145	346,143	346,256	346,085	320,677	313,055	316,970	321,452	325,503	296,451	298,383	303,216	305,238	282,623	284,390
45	10	205,000	209,390	215,428	221,360	179,849	178,958	184,326	155,775	160,446	-8,471	149,422	153,909	153,712	126,097	129,888	133,760	137,781	140,382	144,610	143,828	137,207	104,132	107,271	107,779	99,858	102,864	105,963	109,159	112,447	115,686	103,936	107,014	110,210	-56,770	147,908	151,977	156,264	160,997	165,874	170,158	175,314	180,625	184,626	190,220	194,290	197,337	203,315	209,467	215,851	222,492	229,348	236,431	244,138	252,203	261,122	269,919	277,909	285,846	293,313	300,116	306,829	313,438	319,905	317,998	322,631	314,545	308,159	313,198	311,339	316,003	321,209	326,126	329,596	329,834	325,349	328,436	332,405	336,509	340,240	343,235	345,923	346,134	347,776	348,680	348,543	348,359	344,739	296,927	300,906	304,680	247,642	242,099	249,911	257,869	265,407	272,318	274,663	154,804	157,320
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000