ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	211,000	214,522	220,606	227,355	234,612	241,841	249,082	256,257	262,936	269,015	274,837	280,915	189,929	195,639	201,520	206,692	210,620	217,023	223,617	230,330	236,979	241,802	193,289	199,126	205,139	202,814	193,252	198,538	138,281	142,449	141,535	145,829	150,244	141,525	145,806	143,473	147,471	151,708	146,069	150,472	154,930	159,599	161,008	165,863	170,864	164,491	169,452	164,102	130,077	134,008	135,367	139,364	139,843	137,299	141,443	145,663	125,601	129,377	133,270	137,282	50,655	52,194	53,316	54,424	41,346	42,615	43,805	45,156	46,126	47,539	45,161	30,539	31,469	31,919	32,653	27,333	28,138	29,014	29,829	30,435	17,795	18,351	18,925	-5,468	149,535	153,880	158,512	50,613	51,745	53,320	26,891	27,717	28,486	24,272	25,024	25,724	26,353	14,923
37	2	205,000	210,904	216,918	222,947	230,291	237,726	245,064	250,328	257,395	263,987	231,034	237,699	211,664	214,861	221,347	227,263	234,230	241,268	248,793	256,451	263,534	269,980	275,860	281,496	286,366	291,006	295,327	299,449	303,347	306,969	310,805	312,210	314,856	318,308	269,865	275,801	281,141	265,331	271,192	277,799	283,423	219,809	223,999	227,651	234,243	229,307	202,427	207,829	214,056	217,233	223,577	230,049	223,105	229,543	235,479	242,044	248,624	255,269	261,947	79,629	82,003	84,477	87,031	89,598	92,309	92,961	95,779	69,498	45,579	46,959	48,397	37,683	38,831	40,009	41,227	42,486	23,250	23,976	24,727	-4,723	149,569	154,076	158,556	163,334	166,202	170,841	175,983	181,249	181,241	186,266	191,733	197,512	203,449	209,582	215,877	215,441	221,931	228,963	236,255
38	3	205,000	211,000	216,968	218,531	206,389	211,756	218,173	224,704	231,205	237,929	244,752	251,872	259,459	266,742	273,200	269,184	275,721	281,349	287,190	292,301	296,883	295,446	299,451	303,409	307,136	308,481	294,657	298,836	302,548	306,204	310,075	313,678	251,482	250,746	254,492	261,553	267,965	273,654	184,233	189,788	195,469	201,363	207,436	213,182	219,639	225,252	228,695	235,572	242,298	249,451	256,383	252,531	259,279	265,432	267,630	272,921	276,483	280,584	284,415	288,507	281,463	286,519	291,466	295,842	300,016	304,587	307,698	310,295	312,648	315,300	318,499	322,512	296,570	303,362	309,055	310,107	316,170	320,379	322,672	235,915	229,957	233,534	237,146	244,910	252,776	261,409	269,245	276,796	283,311	290,893	296,046	226,472	233,476	240,585	247,553	254,778	261,962	269,680	276,796
39	4	205,000	206,399	212,409	218,480	225,563	232,782	239,945	244,322	251,385	255,580	262,195	156,064	143,048	147,340	151,663	153,973	158,582	124,738	128,494	132,334	136,327	133,860	137,905	116,881	120,426	115,488	118,997	122,573	120,024	123,577	112,734	116,156	119,689	123,319	122,652	126,367	130,134	133,705	137,707	141,502	145,615	150,014	153,819	158,402	163,137	168,057	173,125	178,345	183,723	188,214	193,891	199,332	205,189	208,571	214,741	220,990	227,293	232,811	239,530	246,254	251,479	258,728	263,800	267,993	274,159	280,298	285,248	289,604	288,657	293,177	203,459	122,974	126,680	130,494	133,435	137,461	136,520	140,644	144,895	137,257	141,084	145,160	149,466	153,973	157,623	162,016	166,893	171,809	176,981	181,901	185,123	190,702	196,443	202,357	206,032	197,018	202,508	208,565	214,596
40	5	205,000	207,986	213,998	199,944	205,937	208,238	214,531	220,837	227,338	233,974	240,772	247,794	254,588	262,140	234,980	241,995	247,461	254,903	261,665	268,605	274,839	280,410	285,518	290,467	295,109	299,243	265,650	271,374	277,314	282,640	288,106	293,176	297,070	300,147	303,293	306,765	309,778	198,477	181,562	187,037	192,593	198,402	197,159	203,095	209,222	215,524	221,869	227,070	233,556	240,385	247,152	218,354	224,721	231,180	237,733	244,330	250,940	257,535	264,036	268,060	274,348	279,923	283,755	285,293	290,226	287,217	291,641	295,492	285,525	290,187	270,465	243,890	252,365	259,142	265,529	272,887	277,270	283,762	289,331	279,407	286,996	293,599	299,338	305,080	294,827	302,270	307,986	312,422	316,855	323,217	326,222	328,426	331,380	333,537	335,040	335,979	161,615	166,476	171,052
41	6	205,000	210,942	216,722	89,854	92,308	95,077	97,909	97,211	99,049	102,025	105,094	108,255	111,511	114,792	116,728	120,241	122,767	126,464	119,998	123,615	124,473	128,038	131,248	135,219	139,004	143,214	147,554	151,527	156,114	160,839	165,703	170,640	175,807	178,934	183,937	189,491	195,196	200,741	98,265	101,179	104,242	107,293	82,971	85,463	49,709	51,226	52,324	53,921	-72,103	147,414	132,868	136,868	140,997	145,254	149,636	154,151	158,803	163,573	168,488	173,492	178,710	184,086	187,285	192,924	189,432	186,337	191,956	197,058	200,824	206,876	187,444	193,083	198,893	204,828	211,081	217,593	224,323	231,356	234,213	106,533	109,440	112,742	115,902	119,402	94,151	96,675	99,592	102,534	105,628	103,656	106,789	109,902	113,219	116,610	120,048	123,672	122,252	125,923	128,971
42	7	205,000	210,885	216,823	222,920	230,243	237,685	245,023	251,374	258,471	210,827	188,301	192,071	197,842	203,190	209,303	215,547	222,108	228,786	233,788	240,949	236,584	240,684	247,785	255,197	262,333	268,860	274,084	279,748	265,270	269,789	276,003	281,909	287,215	292,493	297,313	301,251	304,678	307,524	310,046	298,152	302,863	285,823	291,552	296,918	301,438	298,528	302,602	306,407	309,437	313,148	290,753	294,106	297,469	292,911	296,039	298,921	301,356	175,343	180,612	186,043	191,630	197,156	203,090	209,121	215,404	221,645	228,057	234,644	241,250	248,352	255,932	263,146	271,378	279,279	286,213	292,423	299,241	304,444	308,278	312,236	310,320	315,739	320,302	324,929	190,677	196,098	201,997	208,112	214,373	220,900	227,575	234,446	237,245	232,924	239,892	246,387	253,296	261,474	256,625
43	8	205,000	210,999	217,016	223,099	229,939	234,287	235,155	242,192	249,205	256,330	263,014	269,287	275,730	281,060	286,547	289,055	291,987	283,371	289,100	294,223	298,670	302,576	306,057	309,544	298,020	301,948	305,394	306,910	309,520	280,385	286,011	291,240	295,939	300,639	304,881	300,744	303,256	306,348	308,963	313,224	316,994	318,483	322,197	325,624	328,218	330,417	332,240	332,063	333,250	335,442	334,933	335,012	329,277	312,676	314,344	315,674	249,764	218,870	225,287	231,745	238,728	243,707	251,077	230,820	237,724	242,554	249,617	256,715	263,289	156,046	160,757	165,599	169,225	166,986	172,014	171,467	176,324	181,165	186,625	192,245	194,565	200,411	206,452	212,778	172,243	177,111	178,020	182,150	187,519	187,459	192,926	198,741	204,669	210,842	217,176	200,998	207,054	197,539	203,287
44	9	205,000	210,970	178,479	183,834	180,528	185,943	177,028	182,338	164,635	169,562	174,652	179,901	185,284	190,857	196,594	202,375	208,468	160,124	153,353	157,971	162,596	163,539	98,959	90,672	93,430	96,273	97,784	61,438	63,322	65,263	43,150	44,487	24,368	16,050	15,662	16,167	-24,541	124,891	126,841	130,675	134,033	137,979	128,281	132,152	136,141	135,510	139,601	143,816	114,200	117,209	112,519	115,921	107,196	108,093	111,360	114,726	118,175	121,736	125,146	128,913	131,576	132,016	135,640	127,534	-45,148	148,276	151,541	156,120	160,839	165,694	170,693	175,833	177,037	182,363	187,852	-6,241	149,525	151,197	145,365	149,752	153,955	157,522	77,698	80,033	72,058	73,913	76,147	78,440	-53,467	148,009	152,375	156,973	153,056	157,598	162,349	109,226	112,469	89,807	92,492
45	10	205,000	195,824	201,699	119,478	123,063	126,755	129,414	133,287	124,433	127,887	131,728	128,833	111,698	115,063	118,423	36,805	37,921	35,208	36,278	31,020	31,973	32,090	33,083	34,094	34,969	36,058	36,148	37,230	31,417	26,496	27,330	28,190	29,084	-37,802	148,533	153,025	145,454	149,512	153,098	157,718	161,694	163,259	165,849	170,832	175,908	180,898	186,348	191,965	197,752	201,281	207,260	213,321	219,595	225,493	231,876	238,386	244,562	251,163	251,838	258,500	265,452	271,679	277,750	264,102	270,548	272,385	277,934	282,549	200,310	206,340	210,288	216,767	223,683	231,033	222,431	229,444	236,797	244,345	251,903	259,545	229,235	236,665	244,308	252,407	259,459	268,974	230,585	238,103	245,503	253,855	261,400	268,167	274,848	280,823	286,062	290,659	295,344	299,705	303,244
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000