ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	210,377	216,287	195,955	201,829	207,901	214,143	220,790	227,194	234,038	228,713	235,444	238,448	245,348	252,464	259,386	265,740	271,480	276,798	281,379	282,570	286,781	288,897	293,020	296,077	298,884	301,372	303,739	305,573	307,599	146,453	150,876	155,432	159,625	147,422	151,883	154,347	159,017	163,309	77,784	79,789	54,936	56,632	58,094	-35,400	148,588	-15,155	136,033	121,461	125,129	128,905	132,797	-9,818	148,352	152,747	157,358	133,137	137,166	97,171	100,128	100,229	102,578	105,696	108,906	106,891	110,137	110,779	114,143	116,890	115,528	119,035	117,747	107,675	107,178	110,439	96,671	94,229	97,055	99,973	85,074	87,648	90,294	93,009	93,701	94,016	96,731	99,660	102,653	105,754	108,945	112,167	114,700	-80,512	131,197	135,160	132,467	132,104	135,904	139,635
37	2	205,000	77,851	80,187	82,587	81,433	82,722	85,157	-97,466	146,582	150,965	155,501	154,774	143,836	148,169	152,636	141,010	145,016	145,470	149,868	154,403	159,075	163,890	168,769	173,684	178,283	182,166	171,958	177,154	182,479	187,989	191,450	188,600	194,291	199,605	178,298	183,685	149,642	154,172	158,841	163,633	168,189	146,207	113,725	117,172	120,723	123,995	126,407	129,880	133,794	137,249	116,086	119,113	122,714	126,107	129,666	133,584	137,623	130,160	134,103	138,168	134,538	138,619	142,807	147,117	151,572	156,161	160,058	164,903	164,584	169,566	174,493	179,766	185,203	188,867	194,579	200,460	206,502	212,640	218,897	225,269	231,754	238,507	245,409	252,379	259,390	265,851	271,923	224,934	231,860	239,188	230,543	238,111	245,876	232,381	239,842	243,870	252,165	260,382	223,910
38	3	205,000	210,548	211,304	218,065	225,068	231,997	238,908	241,648	249,793	257,336	263,952	269,098	274,850	280,101	279,408	284,233	288,634	292,529	293,439	296,854	298,993	301,844	305,160	308,017	305,763	307,738	308,836	310,564	292,345	295,537	298,575	301,632	304,201	306,971	307,773	309,163	311,116	313,288	315,470	317,395	319,829	320,954	223,919	230,605	237,410	244,687	233,168	240,153	246,892	253,873	260,540	266,635	271,974	275,785	280,342	281,962	285,775	289,300	292,436	295,104	297,750	297,473	299,870	302,528	305,271	284,405	288,432	290,587	294,029	295,746	292,441	294,410	296,503	299,094	301,380	303,391	305,881	308,178	309,325	309,052	311,355	298,810	296,207	297,549	301,462	268,076	273,980	279,328	195,990	201,804	207,904	214,329	221,010	195,892	201,794	207,596	206,332	210,831	216,992
39	4	205,000	211,000	216,946	211,944	218,492	220,969	227,626	234,031	241,693	248,985	256,415	263,168	269,360	262,255	268,561	274,211	279,401	284,040	288,360	262,550	268,098	273,484	277,910	282,886	247,520	254,241	260,618	266,471	219,632	225,663	231,601	238,186	241,737	243,109	249,556	254,490	260,999	267,165	272,672	277,978	283,188	287,423	291,497	294,683	294,779	300,081	299,827	304,428	306,372	282,975	287,289	291,224	294,802	298,458	301,072	303,198	305,172	307,000	308,562	310,072	311,396	312,565	313,624	313,682	315,555	317,037	318,362	319,390	320,416	320,530	321,269	321,919	322,352	322,670	322,872	322,969	255,563	261,784	267,877	273,374	278,569	283,221	287,825	291,904	296,101	299,944	303,449	168,790	172,940	178,146	157,704	162,457	167,357	171,632	176,804	46,034	47,104	48,527	49,644
40	5	205,000	211,000	218,138	225,274	231,853	239,121	240,978	248,470	251,096	258,197	265,070	254,482	260,208	266,587	272,564	277,903	282,802	287,167	291,238	294,832	295,587	291,988	295,750	299,006	302,091	304,383	276,948	281,110	285,071	288,880	286,576	290,565	288,662	292,628	295,286	297,794	293,500	297,077	299,911	302,784	305,628	307,351	309,838	306,819	309,752	314,209	306,214	310,383	312,704	314,707	316,455	317,375	318,816	320,505	289,360	292,709	295,604	297,232	299,665	286,823	290,196	266,371	80,448	82,571	85,090	87,475	90,137	91,990	94,792	97,648	100,619	103,679	106,785	106,751	109,977	113,320	114,695	118,158	121,720	125,391	129,174	133,071	137,077	131,760	135,742	139,835	113,417	116,031	119,533	123,135	118,468	111,318	-6,287	149,065	152,873	156,877	160,102	164,925	169,544
41	6	205,000	211,000	218,138	225,361	232,769	240,079	247,320	255,099	263,499	270,116	276,147	272,194	277,683	282,476	287,250	291,413	295,080	248,863	255,654	262,150	261,961	262,185	265,324	271,281	276,169	243,060	249,704	256,461	261,467	267,276	272,371	277,547	278,463	283,198	286,535	289,800	293,372	296,905	300,366	301,169	302,099	287,990	286,229	290,975	220,832	221,589	217,329	220,945	227,302	233,863	233,257	202,618	208,693	207,539	212,731	218,938	225,195	231,543	237,945	241,871	223,589	229,883	236,199	242,963	249,647	256,255	262,512	229,146	190,656	196,417	202,351	208,427	214,115	220,311	226,593	232,926	239,305	226,601	232,519	239,112	242,049	249,038	256,182	262,399	261,406	267,844	273,766	279,237	285,208	289,996	295,977	301,409	304,444	288,959	295,053	301,536	307,505	312,748	317,275
42	7	205,000	208,596	215,472	222,512	229,755	235,090	242,186	250,065	245,382	219,007	222,623	229,193	235,903	227,217	233,898	232,138	237,612	244,380	251,282	257,303	263,630	269,408	275,195	280,384	284,864	288,632	292,034	294,093	281,091	285,237	289,112	292,156	295,544	298,991	301,074	303,063	293,287	296,409	299,912	285,611	290,286	293,706	288,301	292,591	226,530	230,479	236,318	243,395	250,291	257,284	263,675	260,250	266,357	245,545	252,240	258,774	264,629	269,959	274,806	277,941	282,099	285,028	287,585	291,621	295,259	282,874	287,034	290,642	293,847	277,528	282,073	286,081	289,634	292,379	295,217	233,035	238,492	222,541	228,764	235,319	241,716	248,696	247,922	170,505	175,628	180,924	186,380	191,987	195,682	128,818	59,290	61,077	62,837	62,570	61,448	30,705	31,378	-27,489	148,845
43	8	205,000	87,264	89,138	91,305	93,561	96,368	99,259	102,236	104,796	107,931	110,855	114,193	117,632	89,627	92,337	95,133	97,987	100,938	103,949	107,107	110,359	113,714	117,160	118,193	74,657	76,472	78,807	81,209	79,186	81,406	83,848	85,845	-41,980	148,318	152,772	30,676	31,543	32,219	33,230	-37,770	128,991	132,909	127,128	130,972	134,938	138,636	142,814	146,790	151,214	155,189	157,397	162,143	166,680	171,392	173,119	178,090	183,464	187,451	193,113	194,254	200,119	193,172	199,008	183,274	188,813	194,480	198,535	204,531	210,602	216,680	222,973	229,337	235,706	242,193	248,390	149,818	154,164	158,810	147,141	151,575	93,210	68,821	70,477	33,770	34,748	35,687	27,924	28,795	25,418	26,197	26,994	27,829	23,586	23,547	-5,631	148,564	153,037	157,560	161,958
44	9	205,000	204,995	210,666	202,390	208,509	214,850	221,310	227,761	235,004	242,089	249,318	256,561	257,827	264,375	270,521	275,000	280,070	284,655	288,177	292,021	295,512	183,716	189,103	194,818	200,352	206,400	210,518	216,285	202,361	162,482	160,276	165,111	170,006	174,756	179,912	185,250	188,268	135,709	125,493	129,304	132,855	136,722	140,825	144,905	149,288	136,412	140,183	144,079	137,945	138,875	143,063	147,378	150,577	154,800	155,274	156,430	158,897	163,695	168,644	172,692	177,912	183,294	183,514	188,576	194,272	200,144	206,185	191,375	187,035	192,689	198,511	204,509	210,611	216,785	218,223	224,462	230,602	237,184	243,949	192,068	196,181	202,090	208,161	214,357	220,774	227,329	234,033	240,907	247,372	255,424	263,211	271,112	258,844	265,054	272,473	279,904	287,049	293,391	298,995
45	10	205,000	211,000	211,971	218,761	222,463	229,360	82,585	52,264	53,338	54,941	55,484	56,978	50,995	52,405	53,998	55,472	57,169	57,297	59,050	59,562	52,394	14,604	15,078	-28,585	148,686	152,417	157,022	161,771	166,646	171,681	176,870	182,206	186,880	182,439	187,948	193,598	171,876	177,070	177,429	182,799	187,955	193,536	199,391	201,053	207,068	213,026	219,300	225,511	232,064	238,732	245,496	252,376	256,127	262,720	267,912	272,526	273,957	278,517	282,607	286,422	289,834	291,707	294,615	298,089	300,968	303,681	306,100	308,166	310,134	312,059	313,709	315,007	315,786	316,688	295,884	298,084	298,273	264,867	270,711	275,977	278,751	283,487	288,068	292,128	289,382	291,784	295,904	299,669	304,299	309,365	313,703	319,110	323,623	327,365	249,454	247,354	255,829	263,839	270,986
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000