ChancyIslandsModel10

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AN	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AX	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW	BX	BY	BZ	CA	CB	CC	CD	CE	CF	CG	CH	CI	CJ	CK	CL	CM	CN	CO	CP	CQ	CR	CS	CT	CU	CV
1	Chancy Islands
2							Blue Background = Input Parameter
3	A simulation model of a very simple society
4	A society of 500 households, with people who are all equally talented, equally educated, equally hard-working, and equally wealthy, but with variable bad luck.																																																																																																All positive numbers are income to a household. All negative numbers are expenses/costs to a household.
5
6	$	Variable Name				Explanation																																																																																												Calculated Values
7
8	205,000	AvgInitialWealth		Average wealth at end of Year 0 (including house)																																																																																													Calc on p. 2	CashWealth		Calculated cash wealth — based on WealthAmount and HouseValue
9
10	200,000	HouseValue		Value of house
11
12	60,000	AnnualWorkIncome		Annual income from working to manufacture something, grow food, extract resources (lumber, oil, etc.), provide a service, etc.																																																																																													Calc on p. 3	Gain		Calculated actual gain (or loss) each year — based on AnnualWorkIncome, AnnualOrdinaryExpense, and values below
13	-54,000	AnnualOrdinaryExpense		Annual expenses from consuming food and energy, buying clothes and other goods that have worn out, receiving services, etc.
14
15	-40,000	MaxExtraExpense		Maximum extra expense from injury or illness																																																																																													Calc on p. 4	ExtraExpense		Calculated actual extra expense — based on MaxExtraExpense and LuckParameter1
16	-20.0	LuckParameter1		Parameter used to calculate extra expenses
17
18	-200,000	MaxCatastrophicLoss		Maximum loss if struck by a natural disaster (tornado, hurricane, flood, wildfire, earthquake, landslide, etc.)																																																																																													Calc on p. 5	CatastrophicLoss		Calculated actual loss from a catastrophic event — based on MaxCatastrophicLoss and LuckParameter2
19	-50.0	LuckParameter2		Parameter used to calculate the catastrophic loss
20
21	3.00%	InterestRate		Annual rate of interest charged on debt and offered for cash wealth loaned																																																																																													Calc on p. 6	Interest		Calculated interest income on wealth (or interest expense on debt) — based on CashWealth
22
23	0	BankruptcyFloor		Wealth amount under which wealth is reset																																																																																													Calc on p. 7	BnkrptcyFee		Calculated fee applied equally to all 500 households to pay for bankruptcies
24	150,000	BankruptcyResetLevel		After bankruptcy, amount at which wealth is reset to
25
26	250,000	TaxThreshold		Wealth level above which tax is levied																																																																																													Calc on p. 8	TaxNBonus		Calculated tax on high wealth (based on WealthAmount) plus bonus paid equally to all 500 households from the proceeds
27	10.00%	TaxRate		Annual tax rate on wealth above TaxThreshold
28
29
30
31
32	WealthAmount at End of Year = WealthAmount a the End of Previous Year + Gain (and starting fresh from the BankruptcyResetLevel)																																																			Year
33
34		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48	49	50	51	52	53	54	55	56	57	58	59	60	61	62	63	64	65	66	67	68	69	70	71	72	73	74	75	76	77	78	79	80	81	82	83	84	85	86	87	88	89	90	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98
35	Household
36	1	205,000	210,997	216,824	223,151	229,586	236,741	231,290	238,175	240,681	248,367	247,664	256,072	263,631	270,289	276,252	282,354	286,703	288,420	292,852	296,880	300,235	303,374	305,453	307,372	309,605	311,591	313,290	314,745	313,846	315,127	316,698	316,992	248,262	253,562	239,522	245,801	252,104	258,239	263,712	268,684	273,568	246,142	252,960	259,631	265,617	271,089	275,972	280,067	284,970	289,738	286,885	291,133	255,202	239,609	244,163	250,234	256,233	262,554	260,866	266,789	272,567	254,505	261,335	259,370	265,829	272,332	279,509	286,565	292,910	299,009	304,150	308,444	311,961	315,076	294,535	296,956	230,123	236,650	243,468	188,165	193,843	196,944	198,262	204,249	210,357	210,979	197,128	203,052	171,188	176,354	181,658	186,911	188,658	194,337	197,116	200,671	190,409	191,861	197,640
37	2	205,000	210,997	119,313	122,892	126,579	130,353	134,264	138,285	54,555	53,570	55,178	56,506	58,210	59,703	61,510	63,353	65,279	66,224	46,043	47,464	46,703	31,882	32,882	33,510	34,569	35,659	36,785	37,752	38,024	-123,188	124,527	128,328	131,255	135,248	139,350	143,572	147,921	152,359	149,925	134,108	138,176	129,717	133,460	137,502	141,410	145,508	148,398	129,772	133,702	137,750	141,919	146,208	150,226	154,713	159,389	162,997	167,913	164,417	169,382	174,485	179,757	118,705	122,141	100,262	99,917	95,454	98,338	101,313	100,659	102,305	105,285	108,474	111,764	114,759	118,152	121,737	116,254	119,761	123,387	127,122	90,010	92,742	95,560	98,378	101,370	104,410	104,872	103,497	80,815	73,217	41,692	42,895	43,828	45,164	42,807	44,070	16,249	16,769	10,733
38	3	205,000	199,413	196,805	202,558	150,298	119,519	123,022	126,713	124,775	128,130	131,975	135,607	139,683	143,889	148,226	152,694	157,300	161,851	162,948	167,869	172,937	178,171	183,565	189,068	194,794	193,467	199,327	205,366	210,825	217,037	222,890	229,132	235,402	241,368	247,693	254,034	259,980	265,006	269,822	146,827	106,946	110,011	112,644	116,060	119,580	123,179	126,803	130,653	134,610	138,662	142,864	146,251	150,676	155,231	159,916	152,834	157,388	162,139	167,037	172,065	139,258	143,476	145,633	149,690	154,225	158,888	163,610	168,534	173,301	176,803	182,100	187,596	193,259	199,092	205,043	208,743	214,972	215,318	221,413	227,640	234,206	240,915	238,419	245,125	251,614	234,214	239,819	233,870	214,474	213,407	216,275	222,674	229,427	236,340	242,312	249,630	257,099	247,992	224,359
39	4	205,000	201,405	207,289	213,479	219,749	226,521	231,235	238,116	244,952	252,760	256,081	264,432	271,477	276,729	196,236	202,122	208,215	214,478	220,877	219,567	226,049	232,625	239,332	246,119	252,998	259,666	265,668	271,155	276,097	280,621	284,875	288,107	290,586	289,937	277,583	281,349	284,582	287,677	286,950	288,301	291,425	293,927	297,162	285,747	289,597	293,034	296,025	299,173	299,827	303,381	306,507	309,220	311,589	313,665	315,435	316,386	318,054	318,761	311,999	313,415	315,517	316,019	318,350	320,252	322,008	297,193	297,807	303,916	305,892	310,898	313,991	316,849	319,793	322,353	324,317	326,029	327,434	328,648	327,460	327,601	323,353	324,395	325,320	325,866	325,184	325,773	295,465	298,456	301,211	258,250	263,480	270,438	276,702	281,731	287,365	292,136	296,602	130,317	122,393
40	5	205,000	210,916	205,356	211,425	169,193	156,410	161,099	165,932	170,008	155,490	-15,630	149,202	153,685	158,036	162,787	167,309	172,336	177,525	182,886	188,412	190,288	196,043	198,338	189,626	192,482	198,267	195,180	201,090	194,301	200,179	199,021	205,057	211,160	197,952	203,935	210,000	187,514	192,999	198,808	188,372	194,069	199,937	205,957	212,099	208,135	214,298	220,533	226,931	233,536	238,336	228,353	235,015	238,674	245,473	252,381	259,172	265,440	270,988	273,737	278,504	276,196	281,306	286,215	290,604	294,650	291,836	297,535	294,573	280,662	287,411	293,242	298,241	301,432	305,293	308,523	311,262	313,795	315,948	317,735	314,364	315,575	317,387	318,881	319,603	320,214	321,192	321,895	322,163	320,347	260,188	266,559	273,451	275,964	282,176	287,710	270,230	276,275	278,474	285,196
41	6	205,000	211,000	206,648	212,733	219,058	225,802	232,758	239,684	181,677	183,566	188,987	119,242	122,828	126,509	101,166	103,159	95,373	97,550	100,512	103,564	105,901	107,534	110,782	114,140	117,172	120,218	123,878	127,641	131,533	135,528	139,109	143,347	146,948	151,412	153,658	158,290	159,657	163,927	168,472	173,526	178,777	155,200	130,709	134,667	138,745	142,947	139,844	144,085	141,482	145,766	150,181	144,424	143,951	148,304	152,788	144,768	149,073	153,576	118,271	121,851	125,544	129,348	133,238	137,279	141,442	145,721	138,275	130,366	134,304	138,359	142,540	146,848	149,262	153,779	158,436	153,510	158,159	162,935	167,856	172,609	177,105	182,452	187,961	192,727	198,550	204,449	208,356	214,222	220,427	226,885	233,510	240,799	159,701	164,513	169,146	174,247	158,964	162,639	167,520
42	7	205,000	211,000	216,853	223,349	229,910	236,848	244,212	251,463	227,108	234,235	241,719	249,828	257,754	264,843	271,194	277,622	283,365	288,450	292,880	296,906	297,330	300,213	303,040	305,714	292,360	295,368	296,369	299,258	301,783	304,100	306,530	307,763	308,803	277,916	281,355	284,770	287,819	289,891	292,377	294,615	285,195	288,732	292,401	295,748	298,760	301,420	303,685	306,194	309,295	311,627	314,121	307,295	309,817	312,044	264,788	252,790	259,467	265,537	270,990	275,055	280,177	284,978	289,639	290,785	294,814	213,155	219,793	226,807	216,712	223,524	230,507	237,599	244,791	252,092	222,092	228,565	235,165	242,004	248,937	255,912	262,433	268,483	273,450	278,354	278,814	283,273	287,228	282,273	286,382	290,507	168,605	173,675	178,902	184,290	189,826	195,547	197,798	203,763	204,828
43	8	205,000	209,341	215,339	218,325	224,778	231,746	235,322	241,986	247,475	255,152	263,040	271,103	277,710	283,058	288,101	280,263	285,828	290,738	294,996	298,851	301,785	304,150	306,880	309,242	311,327	311,974	313,558	314,950	316,125	317,210	318,621	318,738	318,756	318,681	315,608	292,749	295,028	290,740	293,089	295,258	297,758	194,862	194,415	200,282	206,324	212,239	133,819	137,880	142,046	146,297	150,729	155,293	157,081	161,822	166,711	171,739	176,917	182,255	187,754	193,007	197,331	202,608	208,711	214,953	207,320	212,643	219,189	226,175	233,005	240,572	248,245	255,981	263,126	269,698	275,569	280,975	265,453	271,251	273,539	266,160	271,605	271,765	276,670	281,369	250,915	257,702	263,889	269,585	271,799	260,637	266,684	273,547	279,601	265,385	272,096	278,065	283,554	288,780	294,937
44	9	205,000	210,977	216,919	187,374	192,995	198,784	204,745	208,536	214,724	219,875	226,742	233,981	241,297	248,651	252,646	260,271	267,046	273,209	278,468	283,583	281,123	285,769	289,981	293,716	297,068	299,623	302,322	304,589	289,729	292,372	290,221	292,950	295,368	269,148	273,707	277,836	281,538	284,480	287,512	290,194	293,146	292,711	296,009	299,133	291,175	294,472	297,338	300,375	303,913	307,155	309,982	312,423	296,518	297,957	301,076	301,258	304,128	298,056	300,748	303,321	306,216	308,990	311,839	314,251	185,429	173,801	151,148	155,707	160,405	165,147	168,784	173,880	179,132	184,546	190,102	195,693	200,849	197,542	203,502	205,154	210,954	217,208	223,567	230,014	229,857	236,387	232,746	239,319	245,962	252,954	260,077	267,347	273,819	280,154	285,672	290,745	295,335	299,762	305,318
45	10	205,000	210,997	216,998	223,498	230,099	237,035	244,398	251,653	256,224	230,334	237,405	245,258	253,009	260,441	267,113	273,799	279,486	284,848	289,546	293,659	297,432	300,792	301,137	303,918	299,252	302,095	304,589	306,781	308,124	309,848	311,831	312,575	313,167	313,352	313,577	313,972	314,267	314,286	311,045	290,069	293,034	295,881	298,956	299,816	302,476	304,821	306,791	177,114	145,694	150,105	153,611	158,263	162,787	143,590	147,933	152,397	156,994	161,735	166,583	76,274	78,600	80,996	83,465	86,013	88,063	90,701	57,474	59,223	61,024	62,880	64,796	66,771	45,956	47,331	48,794	50,298	51,847	53,434	55,070	56,756	57,578	53,345	54,423	56,079	48,072	49,550	51,074	52,591	28,825	29,726	18,512	19,079	18,406	18,979	19,570	17,110	17,650	18,211	18,773
46	11	205,000
47	12	205,000
48	13	205,000
49	14	205,000
50	15	205,000
51	16	205,000
52	17	205,000
53	18	205,000
54	19	205,000
55	20	205,000
56	21	205,000
57	22	205,000
58	23	205,000
59	24	205,000
60	25	205,000
61	26	205,000
62	27	205,000
63	28	205,000
64	29	205,000
65	30	205,000
66	31	205,000
67	32	205,000
68	33	205,000
69	34	205,000
70	35	205,000
71	36	205,000
72	37	205,000
73	38	205,000
74	39	205,000
75	40	205,000
76	41	205,000
77	42	205,000
78	43	205,000
79	44	205,000
80	45	205,000
81	46	205,000
82	47	205,000
83	48	205,000
84	49	205,000
85	50	205,000
86	51	205,000
87	52	205,000
88	53	205,000
89	54	205,000
90	55	205,000
91	56	205,000
92	57	205,000
93	58	205,000
94	59	205,000
95	60	205,000
96	61	205,000
97	62	205,000
98	63	205,000
99	64	205,000
100	65	205,000