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ETH - Future PE valuation
July 2021
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Scenarios
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Model Inputs1. Bull2. Base3. BearModel Outputs2030
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Average Tx rev in 2030$7.00$4.00$2.00
Implied 2030 market cap ($B)
$1,599
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Total ETH115,000,000115,000,000115,000,000Current price of ETH$2,300
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Transactions in 2021750,000,000750,000,000750,000,000ETH supply115,000,000
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Average Tx rev Q1 2021$34$34$34Implied price of ETH$13,907
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2030 PE ratio303030Implied appreciation605%
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Profit margin90.00%90.00%90.00%
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CASECAGR44.43%
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3. Bear
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YEARYEAR DATETXSREVENUE ($B)PEMARKET CAP ($B)ETH PRICE
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12021750,000,000$1.4150$203$1,761
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220221,425,000,000$2.6125$321$2,788
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320232,707,500,000$4.9100$487$4,238
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420244,332,000,000$7.890$702$6,102
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520256,714,600,000$12.180$967$8,408
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6202610,071,900,000$18.170$1,269$11,035
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7202714,604,255,000$26.360$1,577$13,715
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8202818,985,531,500$34.250$1,709$14,858
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9202924,681,190,950$44.440$1,777$15,453
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10203029,617,429,140$53.330$1,599$13,907
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11203135,540,914,968$64.030$1,919$16,689
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12203242,649,097,962$76.830$2,303$20,027
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13203351,178,917,554$92.130$2,764$24,032
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14203461,414,701,065$110.530$3,316$28,838
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15203570,626,906,224$127.130$3,814$33,164
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16203681,220,942,158$146.230$4,386$38,139
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17203793,404,083,482$168.130$5,044$43,859
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182038102,744,491,830$184.930$5,548$48,245
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192039113,018,941,013$203.430$6,103$53,070
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202040124,320,835,114$223.830$6,713$58,377
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212041136,752,918,626$246.230$7,385$64,214
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222042150,428,210,488$270.830$8,123$70,636
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232043165,471,031,537$297.830$8,935$77,699
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242044182,018,134,691$327.630$9,829$85,469
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252045200,219,948,160$360.430$10,812$94,016
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262046220,241,942,976$396.430$11,893$103,418
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272047242,266,137,273$436.130$13,082$113,760
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282048261,647,428,255$471.030$14,129$122,861
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292049282,579,222,516$508.630$15,259$132,689
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302050299,533,975,867$539.230$16,175$140,651
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Assumptions
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Planned Ethereum updates will be successful
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Internet-level growth rate. Technologies invented after the Internet, such smartphones and social media, tend to grow even faster than the Internet. We generally assume a growth similar to that of the Internet, not faster.
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Lower average transaction fee.Our assumption in the models presented is that the average transaction fee will decrease by 80% to 95% from Q1 2021 levels, leading to an estimated average fee between $2 and $7 (while also assuming significant growth in network value, thus implying a significant increase in the settlement volume driven by these transaction fees).
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Fixed ETH supply of 115m
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Factors that may make the forecast too conservative
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Adoption could be much fast than the Internet
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ETH supply could decrease
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Factors that may make the forecast too aggressive
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Layer 2 could reduce fees dramatically
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ETH supply could increase
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Adoption could be much slower
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