2016 Presidential Model -Revision 1
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBA
1
Political party strength inU.S._states
CNN 2016 pre=election polls
Rand Polling Methodology
2
INPUT IN GREY CELLS
Adjusted
Party-ID Mix
2016 ELECTION MODEL
RCP 2016 presidential election
Gallup national party affiliation trend
3
PartyStates9 PollsElecDay
ElecDay
CNN exit-polls
Gallup: GOP-maintains edge state party affiliation
4
ID CodeGallup1
Pre-elec
GallupNEPNEP
NEP shares
Adjusted
Ipsos/Reuters
1= Party-ID Mix >
blank = poll pty ID
IBD/Tipp
5
PollCode41234TurnoutVotesParty-IDClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinTrump Poll
Clinton
TrumpJohnsonSteinOther PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemTrump%RepClinton% IndTrump% IndTrump%DemClinton% Rep Pre-Elect PollPre-elecCalc
6
Shares1Dem36.1%38.7%32%36%100%49,18636.0%88.4%9.8%0.0%1.8%2%Dem45%87%7%3%2%1.0%Dem34%88%7%0%3%2.0%88.67%87.44%30.89%42.78%7.22%6.11%ClintonTrumpClintonTrump
7
NEP1Rep32.4%31.9%28%33%100%45,08733.0%6.0%90.0%4.0%0.0%2%Rep38%5%86%3%2%4.0%Rep29%6%87%5%0%2.0%Ipsos87%86%18%20%7.00%5.00%44.0%39.0%44.1%39.2%
8
Pre-elect
2Ind31.6%29.4%40%31%100%42,35531.0%34.0%54.0%6.0%4.0%8%Ind17%18%20%15%13%34.0%Ind37%31%47%18%3%1.0%IBD87%87%31%47%7.00%6.00%43.0%45.0%43.1%45.0%
9
Enter code 1-4 for Party-ID
Calc99.38%44.3%50.0%3.2%1.9%Calc100.0%44.1%39.2%5.0%3.9%7.8%Calc100.0%43.1%45.0%8.1%2.1%1.6%Rasmussen87%87%28%48%8.00%5.00%45.0%43.0%45.2%42.9%
10
Enter code 1 for NEP shares; code 2 for Pre--election shares
Votes135,78160,58668,2704,3452,580Poll100.0%44.0%39.0%5.0%4.0%8.0%Poll100.0%43.0%45.0%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%81%29%43%4.00%4.00%47.0%40.0%47.0%40.3%
11
According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided votes were flipped
Margin
7,684
Post UVA
100.0%47.2%43.9%5.0%3.9%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%43.8%46.0%8.1%2.1%0.0%Fox News91%89%30%36%10.00%8.00%48.0%44.0%47.9%44.1%
12
by Google to Clinton. Gallup Independents (41% of the electorate)
Gallup1
99.34%44.6%49.7%3.2%1.9%CNN91%89%42%44%6.00%6.00%48.0%44.0%47.8%43.9%
13
are a proxy for the 40% in the NEP who decided after Sept.1.
Votes136,62860,87567,9204,3142,612 Poll
Rasmussen
Poll
Quinnipiac
ABC87%87%37%45%7.00%8.00%47.0%43.0%47.1%43.1%
14
A 6.5 million flip requires a 10% increase in Trump's 46% NEP share of
Margin
7,044182356Dem40%87%8%1%1%3.0%Dem40%90%4%3%1%2.0%Gravis92%90%32%54%7.00%5.00%47.0%45.0%47.1%44.9%
15
Independents to 56%. As the challenger. Trump would expect at least 56%
Recorded
98.65%48.2%46.1%3.3%1.1%Rep28%5%87%5%1%2.0%Rep34%4%81%11%1%3.0%LA Times86%91%31%48%9.00%8.00%44.0%47.0%44.5%47.0%
16
of undecided Independents since the "incumbent" Clinton was unpopular.Votes136,62865,84562,9804,4971,462Ind32%28%48%7%4%13.0%Ind26%29%43%8%2%18.0%Average88.67%87.44%30.89%42.78%7.22%6.11%45.9%43.3%46.0%43.4%
17
With this one change,Trump wins by 9 million votes with 356 EV (50.0-43.4%).
Margin
-2,865232306Calc100.0%45.2%42.9%4.0%2.0%5.9%Calc100.0%44.9%40.3%7.0%1.3%6.5%
18
Poll100.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll100.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
19
Trump UVA
60%MoE2.5%2.0%
Post UVA
100.0%47.5%46.5%4.0%2.0%0.00%
Post UVA
100.0%47.5%44.2%7.0%1.3%0.0%
20
Pre-election
Party-ID
Pre-Elect Poll
NEPCalc
Post UVA
Pre UVA
Post UVA
21
PollsDemRepIndClintonTrumpClintonTrump
John/Stein
ClintonTrump
Trump pop vote win prob
Fox News
CNN%Ind%Dem%Rep
22
1
Ipsos/Reuters
45%38%17%44.0%39.0%44.1%39.2%8.9%47.2%43.9%1%4% Poll
Clinton
TrumpJohnsonSteinOther PollClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
23
2IBD/Tipp34%29%37%43.0%45.0%43.1%45.0%10.2%43.8%46.0%81%88%Dem43%89%10%0%0%1.0%Dem31%91%6%2%1%0.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
24
3
Rasmussen
40%28%32%45.0%43.0%45.2%42.9%6.0%47.5%46.5%19%29%Rep38%8%89%2%1%0.0%Rep26%6%89%2%0%3.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
25
4Quinnipiac40%34%26%47.0%40.0%44.9%40.3%8.3%47.5%44.2%0%4%Ind19%30%36%22%9%3.0%Ind43%42%44%4%4%6.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
26
5Fox News43%38%19%48.0%44.0%47.0%45.0%7.0%47.4%45.6%4%16%Calc100.0%47.0%45.0%4.9%2.1%1.0%Calc100.0%47.8%43.9%2.9%2.0%3.4%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
27
6CNN31%26%43%48.0%44.0%47.8%43.9%4.9%49.2%45.9%4%5%Poll100.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll100.0%48.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%3.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
28
7
WaPo/ABC
37%29%34%47.0%43.0%47.1%43.1%5.1%49.0%46.0%4%6%
Post UVA
100.0%47.4%45.6%4.9%2.1%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%49.2%45.9%2.9%2.0%0.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4944
29
8Gravis40%33%27%47.0%45.0%47.1%47.1%3.9%47.8%48.2%20%57%77%4%0%2%2%0%4744
30
9LA TImes38%32%30%44.0%47.0%44.5%47.0%7.8%44.8%47.4%90%92% Poll
WaPo/ABC
PollGravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4745
31
Average38.7%31.9%29.4%45.9%43.3%45.7%43.7%5.7%47.1%46.0%13.1%26.7%Dem37%87%7%0%2%4.0%Dem40%92%7%0%1%0.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%4447
32
Rep29%8%87%2%0%3.0%Rep33%5%90%5%0%0.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.7843.44
33
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Ind34%37%45%10%1%7.0%Ind27%32%54%5%2%7.0%
34
Increments above current scenario shares:
NEP shares
Calculate Adjusted Party-ID
Calc100.0%47.1%43.1%4.0%1.1%4.7%Calc100.0%47.1%47.1%3.0%0.9%1.9%
35
Party IDDemRepIndDemRepIndTotalPoll100.0%47.0%43.0%4.0%1.0%5.0%Poll100.0%47.0%45.0%3.0%1.0%4.0%
36
NEP36.0%33.0%31.0%
NEP shares
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%
Post UVA
100.0%49.0%46.0%4.0%1.1%0.0%
Post UVA
100.0%47.8%48.2%3.0%0.9%0.0%
37
Base Case
Trump%9.8%90.0%54.0%Turnout100%100%100%
38
EVoteClinton Trump
NEP*Turnout
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0% Poll
LA TImes
39
Vote share
44.3%50.0%
Adj NEP Turnout
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%Dem38%86%9%2%1%2.0%
40
Votes60,58668,270Base
Normalize Adj
36.0%33.0%31.0%100.0%Rep32%8%91%2%0%-1.0%
41
Ind30%31%48%15%5%1.0%
42
Trump % Republicans
Calc100.0%44.5%46.9%5.9%1.9%0.7%
43
Trump90.0%91.0%92.0%93.0%94.0%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%
44
% IndTrump
Post UVA
100.0%44.8%47.4%5.9%1.9%0.0%
45
54%50.0%50.3%50.6%51.0%51.3%
Clinton
TrumpClintonTrump
46
52%49.3%49.7%50.0%50.3%50.7%PreUVA44.6%49.7%
PostUVA
44.9%50.0%
47
50%48.7%49.1%49.4%49.7%50.0%EV182356EV182356NEPParty
National Exit Poll
48
48%48.1%48.4%48.8%49.1%49.4%Exp. EV170.0368.0Exp. EV169.9368.1ID
Clinton
TrumpJohnsonStein
49
46%47.49%47.8%48.1%48.5%48.8%
Pop Vote WinProb
98.4%
Pop Vote WinProb
99.6%Dem36%90.4%7.8%0.0%1.8%0.0%
50
ClintonRep33%8%88%4%0%0.0%
51
54%44.3%44.0%43.7%43.4%43.0%
Summary stats (no fraud assumed)
Ind31%42%46%6%4%2.0%
52
52%45.0%44.6%44.3%44.0%43.6%
Pre-Elect shares
217321EVoteCalc100.0%48.2%46.1%3.2%1.9%0.6%
53
50%45.6%45.3%44.9%44.6%44.3%
Gallip1 party ID
44.644.1
EVote state calc
54
48%46.2%45.9%45.5%45.2%44.9%
Pre-elect party ID
46.243.0Party
9 Pre-election poll average
55
46%46.82%46.5%46.2%45.8%45.5%
Gallup party-ID
43.643.5
National Voter affiliation
ID
Clinton
TrumpJohnsonStein
56
Vote Share Margin
NEP party ID
44.444.4Dem38.7%88.7%7.0%1.3%1.7%1.3%
57
54%5.6%6.3%6.9%7.6%8.3%
Average
44.743.8Rep31.9%6.1%87.4%3.9%0.3%2.3%
58
52%4.4%5.0%5.7%6.4%7.0%Ind29.4%33.8%42.0%8.9%3.8%11.5%
59
50%3.1%3.8%4.5%5.1%5.8%
NEP shares
291247EVoteCalc100.0%46.2%43.0%4.4%1.9%4.6%
60
48%1.9%2.6%3.2%3.9%4.5%
Gallip1 party ID
48.545.6
EVote state calc
9PollAvg100.0%45.9%43.3%3.2%1.9%5.7%
61
46%0.66%1.3%2.0%2.6%3.3%
Pre-elect party ID
49.944.6
Post UVA
100.0%47.1%46.0%4.4%1.9%0.7%
62
Vote Margin (000)
Gallup party-ID
48.545.8
National Voter affiliation
63
54%7,6368,5329,42910,32511,221
NEP party ID
48.246.1
Recorded vote
64
52%5,9536,8497,7458,6419,537
Average
48.845.5
65
50%4,2695,1656,0616,9577,854
66
48%2,5853,4814,3785,2746,170NEP
Vote Shares
67
46%9021,7982,6943,5904,486
National Party ID
National Pty ID *
NEP shares
2012 Party ID
68
DemRepIndClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinDemRepInd
69
36.0%33.0%31.0%44.3%50.0%3.2%1.9%38.0%32.0%29.0%
70
Adjusted
0.080.08
State Party ID *
NEP shares
43.5%41.3%15.1%
71
2016State34.4%34.5%31.1%Avg43.1%51.2%3.1%1.9%44.5%39.9%15.6%
72
Recorded
Party-ID
36.1%32.4%31.6%Wtd44.6%49.7%3.2%1.9%
Model Weighted Vote
Model Evote
Recorded
ModelDTChgDTModDTRecDemRepIndAdjustment0.080.08
73
ElecVote
2016Vote
ClintonTrumpOtherDemRepInd
Ind/Trump
ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
Johnson
SteinClintonTrumpClintonTrumpClintonTrump Margin%Ind%Ind44.5%39.9%15.6%Actual GallupAdjusted Gallup
74
538136,21648.4%46.1%5.5%36.1%32.4%31.6%66.6%44.6%49.7%3.2%1.9%60,69267,7154,3012,60518235648.4%46.1%44.6%49.7%7.4%50.8%43.6%34.3%46.5%19.2%136,216,67765,719,39862,889,892DemRepDemRep
75
AK331936.6%51.3%12.2%28.9%37.4%33.7%65.7%39.2%54.7%3.4%1.9%125174116AK336.6%51.3%39.2%54.7%0.7%51.3%41.2%35.7%50.3%14.0%
Final CNN 2016 exit poll (reported)
Alabama2,123,372WTA729,54734.36%1,318,25562.08%AK36.9%45.4%28.9%37.4%
76
AL92,12334.4%62.1%3.6%26.8%43.8%29.4%47.4%36.3%57.9%2.9%1.7%7711,2306235AL934.4%62.1%36.3%57.9%-6.1%48.0%62.2%40.8%42.2%17.0%28 states onlyAlaska318,608WTA116,45436.55%163,38751.28%AL34.8%51.8%26.8%43.8%
77
AR61,13133.7%60.6%5.8%26.3%40.6%33.1%54.6%36.9%57.0%3.3%1.8%4186443720AR633.7%60.6%36.9%57.0%-6.9%49.5%60.3%40.5%44.0%15.5%VotesShareDemocratRepubIndTrumpArizona2,573,165WTA1,161,16745.13%1,252,40148.67%AR34.3%48.6%26.3%40.6%
78
AZ112,57345.1%48.7%6.2%33.4%33.7%32.9%67.6%42.7%51.4%3.3%1.9%1,1001,3228549AZ1145.1%48.7%42.7%51.4%5.1%53.7%45.5%48.4%33.5%18.1%Avg110,70235.29%32.50%32.21%46.73%Arkansas1,130,635WTA380,49433.65%684,87260.57%AZ41.4%41.7%33.4%33.7%
79
CA5514,18261.7%31.6%6.7%42.3%24.0%33.7%106.6%50.3%43.9%3.4%2.1%7,1326,232478299CA5561.7%31.6%50.3%43.9%23.8%59.2%22.6%41.3%43.7%15.0%Wtd Avg37.46%31.76%30.78%45.20%Californiadl14,181,595WTA8,753,78861.73%554,483,81031.62%CA50.3%32.0%42.3%24.0%
80
CO92,78048.2%43.3%8.6%34.4%35.0%30.6%70.8%42.9%51.4%3.1%1.8%1,1931,4298551CO948.2%43.3%42.9%51.4%13.4%53.6%27.0%50.9%33.9%15.2%AZ2,57328%32%40%48.7%Coloradodl2,780,220WTA1,338,87048.16%91,202,48443.25%CO42.4%43.0%34.4%35.0%
81
CT71,64554.6%40.9%4.5%43.1%24.8%32.1%78.4%50.5%43.9%3.2%2.1%8317225334CT754.6%40.9%50.5%43.9%7.0%59.4%50.2%77.4%13.3%9.3%CA14,18247%23%30%31.6%Connecticutdl1,644,920WTA897,57254.57%7673,21540.93%CT51.1%32.8%43.1%24.8%
82
DC331390.5%4.1%5.4%69.4%5.3%25.3%-70.3%25.2%2.5%2.3%2207987DC390.5%4.1%70.3%25.2%41.4%--50.6%34.1%15.3%CO2,78032%24%44%43.3%Delawaredl441,590WTA235,60353.35%3185,12741.92%DC77.4%13.3%69.4%5.3%
83
DE344253.4%41.9%4.7%45.4%26.1%28.5%68.0%51.4%43.3%2.9%2.0%227191139DE353.4%41.9%51.4%43.3%3.4%60.5%55.5%44.7%40.2%15.1%FL9,42032%33%35%49.0%
District of Columbia
dl312,575WTA282,83090.48%312,7234.07%DE53.4%34.1%45.4%26.1%
84
FL299,42047.8%49.0%3.2%34.5%33.4%32.1%65.5%43.4%50.8%3.2%1.9%4,0904,783302179FL2947.8%49.0%43.4%50.8%6.2%54.1%48.7%40.4%45.1%14.5%GA4,11534%36%30%50.8%Florida9,420,039WTA4,504,97547.82%4,617,88649.02%FL42.5%41.4%34.5%33.4%
85
GA164,11545.6%50.8%3.6%33.9%35.1%31.0%61.1%42.6%51.7%3.1%1.9%1,7532,12512876GA1645.6%50.8%42.6%51.7%3.9%53.4%50.5%53.6%29.6%16.8%IA1,56631%34%35%51.1%Georgia4,114,732WTA1,877,96345.64%2,089,10450.77%GA41.9%43.1%33.9%35.1%
86
HI443861.0%29.4%9.6%41.8%23.1%35.1%119.2%50.3%43.8%3.5%2.2%220192159HI461.0%29.4%50.3%43.8%25.1%59.1%18.1%44.6%40.3%15.1%IL5,53645%30%25%38.8%Hawaiidl437,664WTA266,89160.98%4128,84729.44%HI49.8%31.1%41.8%23.1%
87
IA61,56641.7%51.2%7.1%31.5%37.3%31.2%61.0%40.7%53.5%3.1%1.8%6378384928IA641.7%51.2%40.7%53.5%3.4%51.9%44.4%28.4%56.0%15.6%IN2,74134%39%27%56.8%Idaho690,255WTA189,76527.49%409,05559.26%IA39.5%45.3%31.5%37.3%
88
ID469027.5%59.3%13.3%21.4%47.6%31.0%52.3%32.3%61.7%3.1%1.6%2234262111ID427.5%59.3%32.3%61.7%-2.4%45.4%37.6%50.4%33.7%15.9%KY1,92438%44%18%62.5%Illinoisdl5,536,424WTA3,090,72955.83%202,146,01538.76%ID29.4%55.6%21.4%47.6%
89
IL205,53655.8%38.8%5.4%43.5%25.6%30.9%79.7%50.5%44.0%3.1%2.0%2,7962,435171112IL2055.8%38.8%50.5%44.0%10.6%59.5%42.6%39.9%44.2%15.9%ME74832%27%41%44.9%Indiana2,740,958WTA1,039,12637.91%1,557,28656.82%IL51.5%33.6%43.5%25.6%
90
IN112,74137.9%56.8%5.3%29.2%37.2%33.6%59.1%39.5%54.5%3.4%1.9%1,0821,4939251IN1137.9%56.8%39.5%54.5%-3.9%51.4%58.4%34.8%51.1%14.1%MI4,79940%31%29%47.5%Iowa1,566,031WTA653,66941.74%800,98351.15%IN37.2%45.2%29.2%37.2%
91
KS61,18436.1%56.7%7.3%25.9%42.8%31.3%55.3%36.1%58.0%3.1%1.7%4286863720KS636.1%56.7%36.1%58.0%1.3%48.4%44.2%44.4%42.9%12.7%MN2,94537%35%28%44.9%Kansas1,184,402WTA427,00536.05%671,01856.65%KS33.9%50.8%25.9%42.8%
92
KY81,92432.7%62.5%4.8%31.9%41.1%27.0%43.2%39.8%54.7%2.7%1.7%7671,0525232KY832.7%62.5%39.8%54.7%-15.0%50.4%79.3%41.7%43.0%15.3%MO2,80934%39%27%56.8%Kentucky1,924,149WTA628,85432.68%1,202,97162.52%KY39.9%49.1%31.9%41.1%
93
LA82,02938.5%58.1%3.5%33.1%37.5%29.4%50.6%41.5%52.9%2.9%1.8%8421,0736036LA838.5%58.1%41.5%52.9%-8.3%52.3%70.0%52.4%32.4%15.2%NC4,74235%31%34%49.8%Louisiana2,029,032WTA780,15438.45%1,178,63858.09%LA41.1%45.5%33.1%37.5%
94
MA113,32560.0%32.8%7.2%46.1%21.2%32.7%99.7%53.1%41.3%3.3%2.1%1,7671,37210971MA1160.0%32.8%53.1%41.3%15.3%61.3%35.5%55.5%32.4%12.1%NH74228%28%44%46.6%
Maine (at-large)
747,927CD[e]357,73547.83%2335,59344.87%MA54.1%29.2%46.1%21.2%
95
MD102,78160.3%33.9%5.8%46.5%23.3%30.2%89.1%52.8%41.8%3.0%2.0%1,4681,1648457MD1060.3%33.9%52.8%41.8%15.5%61.4%35.1%45.9%37.7%16.4%NJ3,90743%27%30%41.0%Marylanddl2,781,446WTA1,677,92860.33%10943,16933.91%MD54.5%31.3%46.5%23.3%
96
ME474847.8%44.9%7.3%35.6%31.7%32.7%72.9%44.5%49.7%3.3%1.9%3333722415ME447.8%44.9%44.5%49.7%8.1%55.0%40.3%48.4%36.1%15.5%NM79841%27%32%40.0%
Massachusetts
3,325,046WTA1,995,19660.01%111,090,89332.81%ME43.6%39.7%35.6%31.7%
97
MI164,79947.3%47.5%5.2%35.7%30.8%33.5%70.5%44.8%49.3%3.4%2.0%2,1502,36616195MI1647.3%47.5%44.8%49.3%4.3%55.2%49.9%41.4%46.5%12.1%NV1,12536%28%36%45.5%Michigan4,799,284WTA2,268,83947.27%2,279,54347.50%MI43.7%38.8%35.7%30.8%
98
MN102,94546.4%44.9%8.6%37.1%32.4%30.5%67.9%45.1%49.3%3.1%1.9%1,3281,4519056MN1046.4%44.9%45.1%49.3%5.7%55.3%41.0%48.6%37.3%14.1%NY7,45648%26%26%36.7%Minnesota2,944,813WTA1,367,71646.44%101,322,95144.92%MN45.1%40.4%37.1%32.4%
99
MO102,80938.1%56.8%5.1%31.0%39.3%29.7%52.3%39.9%54.4%3.0%1.7%1,1201,5298349MO1038.1%56.8%39.9%54.4%-4.0%51.0%58.8%40.2%43.8%16.0%OH5,49634%37%29%51.7%Mississippi1,209,357WTA485,13140.11%700,71457.94%MO39.0%47.3%31.0%39.3%
100
MS61,20940.1%57.9%2.0%29.7%40.6%29.7%51.3%38.8%55.5%3.0%1.7%4696713621MS640.1%57.9%38.8%55.5%-1.1%50.1%58.4%36.4%49.8%13.8%OR2,00133%23%44%39.1%Missouri2,808,605WTA1,071,06838.14%1,594,51156.77%MS37.7%48.6%29.7%40.6%
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