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Overview: We estimate Carbon180's cost-effectiveness by (1) estimating how much CO2 would be reduced through the carbon removal provisions it advocates for, (2) estimating the change in probability of a bill passing with these provisions due to Carbon180, (3) estimating Carbon180's expected value, and (4) dividing its expected value by its 2019-2021 budget.

We also produced a Guesstimate model that allowed us to set various ranges and distributions for each input.
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Summary of Carbon180's estimated CO2e reductions relative to BAU
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DescriptionBillCO2e reductions relative to BAU between 2022 and 2028 (million metric tons)Note
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PessimisticRealisticOptimistic
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2-year extension of 45QEnergy Act via H.R. 133, The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021989898Under the 2-year extension of 45Q, projects will have until the end of 2025 (and not 2023) to demonstrate that construction on a carbon capture project has begun so as to qualify for the 45Q tax credit. We multiplied 45Q's annual expected CO2e reduction by two to account for its two-year extension.
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Increased pay-out of 45QBuild Back Better Act, 202127.80121.02258.28Under this proposal, the 45Q tax credit pay-out would increase. We estimate CO2e reduction using a model output by Energy Innovation. We use their Moderate scenario. For more information on our calculations, please see sheet "45Q."

Source: https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Modeling-The-Infrastructure-Bills-Using-The-Energy-Policy-Simulator.pdf
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DAC hubsInfrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, 20210.050.251.58We project DAC capacity by assuming exponential growth between current capacity and proposed capacity in 2030. We investigate four different goals for DAC capacity proposed by the Rhodium Group, the Bipartisan Policy Center, and EDF.

The CO2e reductions listed will differ depending on which DAC scenario is selected. Please see sheet "DAC Hubs" for further detail.
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Carbon capture RD&DInfrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, 2021We assume that carbon capture RD&D will not have an effect on CO2 emissions between 2022 and 2028.

We leave this row blank for those who would like to input values to adjust this model.
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Total125.85219.26357.85
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Carbon180's finances
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TotalPolicyGovernment Affairs
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% of total100%50%10%
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2019$1,579,662.56$789,831.28$157,966.26
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2020$2,699,933.83$1,349,966.92$269,993.38
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2021$3,000,000.00$1,500,000.00$300,000.00
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Total spent on policy and government affairs between 2019 and 2021$4,367,757.83
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Carbon180's cost-effectiveness
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PessimisticRealisticOptimisticNote
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Change in probability of a bill passing with Carbon180's provisions1.00%3.00%5.00%We assume that Carbon180's influence on both bipartisan and progressive bills are likely the same. We further assume that Carbon180 only has a small effect on whether a bill passes with carbon capture-related provisions. Our estimates are informed by conversations that we had with experts in carbon removal who are knowledgeable about Carbon180's work.

Our estimates are highly subjective and were the most challenging part of this CEA to estimate.
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Number of years that Carbon180 moves policy forward2.004.006.00We assume that progressive federal legislation will only be introduced once a decade, which is how frequently Democrats have held a government trifecta over the past 40 years.

We believe that bills containing carbon capture will be introduced more frequently than progressive bills, e.g. more than once a decade, because carbon capture has bipartisan support. We assumed that under the Pessimistic, Realistic, and Optimistic scenarios, Carbon180 will move policy forward by 2, 4, and 6 years, respectively.
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Expected value of Carbon180 (million metric tons of CO2e)1.266.5817.89We only use the 2019-2021 budgets in our calculations to match the bills we considered in this CEA.
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Cost per change in CO2e ($/metric ton)$3.47$0.66$0.24See calculation.
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Change in CO2e per dollar (metric ton/$)0.291.514.10See calculation.
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