| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | ||||
2 | (billions) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Exit | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
3 | TVL Market TAM ($B) | ||||||||||||||||
4 | Global Derivatives | 4% | $615,327 | $639,940 | $665,538 | $692,159 | $719,846 | $748,639 | $778,585 | $809,728 | $842,118 | <-- 10Y CAGR - BIS | |||||
5 | Global Real Estate | 4% | $601,200 | $613,600 | $637,700 | $660,500 | $683,100 | $706,000 | $729,400 | $755,075 | $781,654 | <-- Source: Statista | |||||
6 | Global Debt (Fixed Income) | 4% | $122,556 | $127,326 | $132,713 | $138,329 | $144,183 | $150,284 | $156,643 | $163,272 | $170,181 | <-- 10Y CAGR - BIS | |||||
7 | Global Asset Management | 6% | $98,000 | $103,898 | $110,150 | $116,779 | $123,807 | $131,257 | $139,156 | $147,531 | $156,409 | <-- 17Y CAGR - BCG | |||||
8 | Global Currency (M2) | 6% | $82,600 | $87,556 | $92,809 | $98,378 | $104,281 | $110,537 | $117,170 | $124,200 | $131,652 | <-- Source: Visual Capitalist | |||||
9 | Global Equity | 4% | $93,468 | $97,423 | $101,546 | $105,843 | $110,321 | $114,990 | $119,856 | $124,927 | $130,214 | <-- 10Y CAGR - WFE | |||||
10 | Global Intangible Assets | 6% | $42,000 | $44,520 | $47,191 | $50,023 | $53,024 | $56,205 | $59,578 | $63,152 | $66,942 | <-- $5T (Patents) + $3T (Trademarks/Copyrights) + $10T (Brand Value) + $15T (Software/Tech) + $5T (Customer Relationships) + $2T (Licenses) + $2T (Others) = $42T. Software and Tech Assets (7-9%), IP (5-7%), Goodwill and Brand Value (4-6%), Other Intangibles (3-5%). Weighted-average = 5-7%. | |||||
11 | Global Consumer Goods | 4% | $50,508 | $52,340 | $54,172 | $56,068 | $58,030 | $60,061 | $62,164 | $64,339 | $66,591 | <-- $21T (cars) + $1.14T (phones) + $7.8T (clothing) + $8.4T (appliances) + $14T (furniture) | |||||
12 | Global Alternative Investments | 8% | $19,300 | $20,748 | $22,304 | $23,976 | $25,775 | $27,708 | $29,786 | $32,020 | $34,421 | <-- Private Equity ($4.5T), Hedge Funds ($3.8T), Real Estate ($9.6T), Private Debt ($0.85T), Infrastructure ($0.58T) = $19.3T | |||||
13 | Global Commodities | 4% | $20,000 | $20,800 | $21,632 | $22,497 | $23,397 | $24,333 | $25,306 | $26,319 | $27,371 | ||||||
14 | Global Securitized Products | 7% | $13,157 | $14,080 | $14,675 | $15,296 | $15,944 | $16,618 | $17,322 | $18,054 | $18,818 | ||||||
15 | Global Insurance Policies (Premiums) | 9% | $5,938 | $6,479 | $6,753 | $7,039 | $7,337 | $7,647 | $7,971 | $8,308 | $8,659 | <-- Source: BusinessWire | |||||
16 | Total | 4% | $1,764,054 | $1,828,708 | $1,907,183 | $1,986,887 | $2,069,043 | $2,154,281 | $2,242,936 | $2,336,926 | $2,435,030 | ||||||
17 | |||||||||||||||||
18 | Volume Market TAM ($B) | ||||||||||||||||
19 | Global Bank and Interbank Transfers | 4% | $3,000,000 | $3,120,000 | $3,244,800 | $3,374,592 | $3,509,576 | $3,649,959 | $3,795,957 | $3,947,795 | $4,105,707 | <-- $1.5Q/year volume on global interbank payment systems like Swift (BIS) + $1Q/year global volume of noncash txs e.g., checks, credit cards, and interbank wire transfers (McKinsey) = $3Q/year. | |||||
20 | Global Derivatives | 4% | $3,006,000 | $3,068,000 | $3,188,500 | $3,302,500 | $3,415,500 | $3,530,000 | $3,647,000 | $3,775,374 | $3,908,268 | <-- Notional Value Approach: Derivatives turnover ratios are 5-10x annually. Exchange Volume Approach: Annual exchange-traded derivatives volume is $116T (WFE). Total derivatives volume is therefore $1-1.5Q given OTC volume is likely 85-90% of total volume. | |||||
21 | Global Securities Financing | 2% | $2,252,625 | $2,293,823 | $2,335,778 | $2,378,506 | $2,422,020 | $2,466,336 | $2,511,469 | $2,557,434 | $2,604,246 | ||||||
24 | Global FX | 4% | $1,891,512 | $1,963,768 | $2,038,784 | $2,116,665 | $2,197,522 | $2,281,467 | $2,368,619 | $2,459,100 | $2,553,038 | <-- Statista - 3.82% 10Y CAGR | |||||
25 | Global B2B Payments | 5% | $145,861 | $153,154 | $160,811 | $168,852 | $177,295 | $186,159 | $195,467 | $205,241 | $215,503 | <-- Mastercard | |||||
26 | Global Securitized Products | 7% | $135,762 | $143,933 | $152,594 | $161,778 | $171,513 | $181,835 | $192,778 | $204,379 | $216,679 | <-- Securitized products include asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, CDOs, and related structured finance instruments. According to SIFMA, average daily trading volume for US mortgage-backed securities alone is around $200B. US agency MBS make up around half of the total global securitized products market. So a conservative estimate for global daily trading volume of all securitized products might be around $400B. | |||||
27 | Global Equity | 4% | $145,099 | $151,239 | $157,638 | $164,309 | $171,262 | $178,509 | $186,063 | $193,936 | $202,143 | <-- Cash Equities Turnover across global exchanges ($93B/day per World Federation of Exchanges) + OTC equities trading ($200-300B/day)... https://focus.world-exchanges.org/issue/september-2023/dashboard | |||||
28 | Global Loans | 4% | $141,500 | $147,160 | $153,046 | $159,168 | $165,535 | $172,156 | $179,043 | $186,204 | $193,653 | <-- Bank Loans: $31T (cross-border - BIS) + $110T (domestic - IMF) = $141T. Non-Bank Loans: $20B (P2P) + $300B (payday and other short-term loans) + $180B (other). Corporate Debt Issuance ($10T in bonds - SIMFA) + Consumer Debt ($55T incl. mortgages). | |||||
29 | Global Debt (Fixed Income) | 4% | $50,457 | $52,420 | $54,461 | $56,580 | $58,782 | $61,070 | $63,446 | $65,916 | $68,481 | <-- SIFMA estimates the average daily trading volume of global debt markets to be about $700 billion per day. With around 250 trading days per year, this equates to around $175 trillion in estimated annual trading volume. Apply a 30% adjustment for netting effects (to offset interdealer volumes) | |||||
30 | Global Consumer Goods | 14% | $19,960 | $21,776 | $23,758 | $25,920 | $28,278 | $30,852 | $33,659 | $36,722 | $40,063 | <-- Statista | |||||
31 | Global Trade | 4% | $24,900 | $26,394 | $27,978 | $29,656 | $31,436 | $33,322 | $35,321 | $37,440 | $39,687 | <-- WTO | |||||
32 | Global Insurance | 9% | $8,636 | $9,283 | $9,979 | $10,728 | $11,532 | $12,397 | $13,327 | $14,327 | $15,401 | <-- Policies and claims are not traded like financial securities so we cannot estimate total daily trading volume for the global insurance industry. However, we can view daily insurance premiums and claims flows as a proxy metric. Annual insurance premiums are around $7T globally across life, P&C, reinsurance, etc. Assuming 250 business days/year this equates to $28B/day in insurance premiums. There is also an estimated $2-3T in annual insurance claims paid out. This equals $8-12B/day in claims processing activity. | |||||
33 | Global Retail Ecommerce | 10% | $5,717 | $6,310 | $6,913 | $7,528 | $8,148 | $8,819 | $9,545 | $10,332 | $11,182 | <-- Statista | |||||
34 | Global Real Estate | 4% | $9,018 | $9,204 | $9,566 | $9,908 | $10,247 | $10,590 | $10,941 | $11,326 | $11,725 | <-- 1-2% annual turnover ratio according to Savills Research and CBRE. | |||||
35 | Global M&A | 2% | $3,390 | $3,472 | $3,556 | $3,643 | $3,731 | $3,821 | $3,914 | $4,009 | $4,106 | <-- Statista | |||||
36 | Global PE | 7% | $2,248 | $2,401 | $2,565 | $2,739 | $2,926 | $3,125 | $3,338 | $3,565 | $3,808 | <-- Statista | |||||
37 | Global VC | 13% | $480 | $542 | $613 | $692 | $782 | $884 | $999 | $1,129 | $1,276 | <-- Statista | |||||
38 | Global Remittances | 4% | $831 | $840 | $858 | $890 | $922 | $956 | $991 | $1,028 | $1,066 | <-- 3.68% 10Y CAGR (Statista) | |||||
39 | Total | 3% | $10,843,995 | $11,173,719 | $11,572,198 | $11,974,653 | $12,387,007 | $12,812,258 | $13,251,878 | $13,715,257 | $14,196,030 | ||||||
40 | |||||||||||||||||
41 | Take Rate (%) | ||||||||||||||||
42 | Global Bank and Interbank Transfers | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | |||||||
43 | Global Derivatives | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||
44 | Securities Financing | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||
45 | Repo | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||
46 | Lending | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||
47 | Global FX | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | |||||||
48 | Global B2B Payments | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | 0.55% | |||||||
49 | Global Securitized Products | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |||||||
50 | Global Equity | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |||||||
51 | Global Loans | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | 3.45% | |||||||
52 | Global Debt (Fixed Income) | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |||||||
53 | Global Consumer Goods | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | |||||||
54 | Global Trade | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | |||||||
55 | Global Insurance | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | |||||||
56 | Global Retail Ecommerce | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | 13.33% | |||||||
57 | Global Real Estate | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | 6.25% | |||||||
58 | Global M&A | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | <-- Take Rate on TVE | ||||||
59 | Global PE | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | <-- Take Rate on TVL | ||||||
60 | Global VC | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | <-- Take Rate on TVL | ||||||
61 | Global Remittances | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | |||||||
62 | Total | 0.28% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | |||||||
63 | |||||||||||||||||
64 | Revenue Market TAM ($B) | ||||||||||||||||
65 | Global Bank and Interbank Transfers | 4% | $15,000 | $15,600 | $16,224 | $16,873 | $17,548 | $18,250 | $18,980 | $19,739 | $20,529 | ||||||
66 | Global Derivatives | 4% | $301 | $307 | $319 | $330 | $342 | $353 | $365 | $378 | $391 | ||||||
67 | Securities Financing | 2% | $113 | $115 | $117 | $119 | $121 | $123 | $126 | $128 | $130 | $11,521,590,690 | https://datalend.com/the-purple-issue-xiii/ | ||||
68 | Repo | 2% | $113 | $115 | $117 | $119 | $121 | $123 | $125 | $128 | $130 | ||||||
69 | Lending | 6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | ||||||
70 | Global FX | 4% | $7,566 | $7,855 | $8,155 | $8,467 | $8,790 | $9,126 | $9,474 | $9,836 | $10,212 | ||||||
71 | Global B2B Payments | 5% | $802 | $842 | $884 | $929 | $975 | $1,024 | $1,075 | $1,129 | $1,185 | ||||||
72 | Securitized Products | 6% | $136 | $144 | $153 | $162 | $172 | $182 | $193 | $204 | $217 | ||||||
73 | Global Equity | 4% | $145 | $151 | $158 | $164 | $171 | $179 | $186 | $194 | $202 | ||||||
74 | Global Loans | 4% | $4,882 | $5,077 | $5,280 | $5,491 | $5,711 | $5,939 | $6,177 | $6,424 | $6,681 | ||||||
75 | Global Debt (Fixed Income) | 4% | $50 | $52 | $54 | $57 | $59 | $61 | $63 | $66 | $68 | ||||||
76 | Global Consumer Goods | 9% | $200 | $218 | $238 | $259 | $283 | $309 | $337 | $367 | $401 | ||||||
77 | Global Trade | 6% | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 | $40 | ||||||
78 | Global Insurance | 8% | $86 | $93 | $100 | $107 | $115 | $124 | $133 | $143 | $154 | ||||||
79 | Global Retail Ecommerce | 9% | $762 | $841 | $921 | $1,003 | $1,086 | $1,175 | $1,272 | $1,377 | $1,490 | ||||||
80 | Global Real Estate | 4% | $564 | $575 | $598 | $619 | $640 | $662 | $684 | $708 | $733 | ||||||
81 | Global M&A | 2% | $68 | $69 | $71 | $73 | $75 | $76 | $78 | $80 | $82 | ||||||
82 | Global PE | 7% | $67 | $72 | $77 | $82 | $88 | $94 | $100 | $107 | $114 | ||||||
83 | Global VC | 13% | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $35 | $40 | $45 | $51 | ||||||
84 | Global Remittances | 3% | $4 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | ||||||
85 | Total | 4% | $30,790 | $32,064 | $33,405 | $34,797 | $36,242 | $37,750 | $39,323 | $40,968 | $42,685 | ||||||
86 | |||||||||||||||||
87 | Web3 Penetration (%) | ||||||||||||||||
88 | Global Bank and Interbank Transfers | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
89 | Global Derivatives | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
90 | Securities Financing | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
91 | Repo | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
92 | Lending | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
93 | Global FX | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
94 | Global B2B Payments | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
95 | Securitized Products | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
96 | Global Equity | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
97 | Global Loans | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
98 | Global Debt (Fixed Income) | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
99 | Global Consumer Goods | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
100 | Global Trade | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
101 | Global Insurance | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% | ||||||||
102 | Global Retail Ecommerce | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 10% |