Preston Barclay - Unsung-Zeroes.com - MLB Qualifying Offer Valuation
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MLB Draft Slot/Qualifying Offer ValuationDraft Pick/Qualifying Offer Worth (Years 0-6)
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© Preston BarclayPick
Gross Val. WAR
Prospect Cost
Surplus Value (Worth)
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Basic Assumptions1 $ 82,947,755 $ 42,983,807 $ 39,963,949
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Years to Majors32 $ 59,430,476 $ 32,380,095 $ 27,050,381
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2016 $/WAR $ 8,000,000 3 $ 48,900,051 $ 26,971,125 $ 21,928,926
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Discount Rate5%4 $ 42,580,797 $ 23,246,623 $ 19,334,173
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5 $ 38,247,237 $ 20,675,399 $ 17,571,838
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WAR Performance Assumptions (% of 6 yr total)6 $ 35,035,949 $ 19,091,684 $ 15,944,265
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Pre-Arb 1 WAR %11%7 $ 32,532,129 $ 17,791,056 $ 14,741,073
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Pre-Arb 2 WAR %11%8 $ 30,508,324 $ 16,861,734 $ 13,646,590
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Pre-Arb 3 WAR %11%9 $ 28,827,965 $ 16,069,991 $ 12,757,975
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Arb 1 WAR %22%10 $ 27,403,412 $ 15,380,469 $ 12,022,942
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Arb 2 WAR %22%11 $ 26,175,486 $ 14,799,599 $ 11,375,887
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Arb 3 WAR %22%12 $ 25,102,586 $ 14,280,639 $ 10,821,947
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Total100%13 $ 24,154,491 $ 13,811,701 $ 10,342,790
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14 $ 23,308,646 $ 13,353,663 $ 9,954,983
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Salary Assumptions15 $ 22,547,830 $ 12,899,636 $ 9,648,193
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Pre-Arb 1 $ 500,000 16 $ 21,858,629 $ 12,474,556 $ 9,384,073
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Pre-Arb 2 $ 510,000 17 $ 21,230,426 $ 12,073,575 $ 9,156,851
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Pre-Arb 3 $ 525,000 18 $ 20,654,684 $ 11,783,478 $ 8,871,206
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Arb 1 (% of Mkt Rate)40%19 $ 20,124,456 $ 11,511,387 $ 8,613,069
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Arb 2 (% of Mkt Rate)60%20 $ 19,634,019 $ 11,255,412 $ 8,378,607
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Arb 3 (% of Mkt Rate)80%21 $ 19,178,611 $ 11,043,449 $ 8,135,162
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22 $ 18,754,234 $ 10,843,698 $ 7,910,536
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23 $ 18,357,501 $ 10,655,205 $ 7,702,296
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24 $ 17,985,521 $ 10,476,413 $ 7,509,108
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25 $ 17,635,813 $ 10,306,630 $ 7,329,183
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26 $ 17,306,229 $ 10,144,796 $ 7,161,433
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27 $ 16,994,902 $ 9,990,365 $ 7,004,537
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28 $ 16,700,198 $ 9,842,584 $ 6,857,614
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29 $ 16,420,682 $ 9,700,878 $ 6,719,805
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30 $ 16,155,088 $ 9,564,740 $ 6,590,348
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31 $ 15,902,290 $ 9,433,721 $ 6,468,569
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32 $ 15,661,289 $ 9,307,320 $ 6,353,969
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33 $ 15,431,191 $ 9,185,281 $ 6,245,910
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34 $ 15,211,193 $ 9,067,382 $ 6,143,811
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35 $ 15,000,575 $ 8,944,135 $ 6,056,440
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36 $ 14,798,685 $ 8,819,179 $ 5,979,507
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37 $ 14,604,934 $ 8,698,378 $ 5,906,556
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38 $ 14,418,787 $ 8,581,819 $ 5,836,968
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39 $ 14,239,756 $ 8,469,107 $ 5,770,649
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40 $ 14,067,398 $ 8,360,164 $ 5,707,234
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41 $ 13,901,306 $ 8,254,727 $ 5,646,579
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42 $ 13,741,107 $ 8,152,648 $ 5,588,460
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43 $ 13,586,460 $ 8,053,789 $ 5,532,671
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44 $ 13,437,049 $ 7,957,824 $ 5,479,225
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45 $ 13,292,584 $ 7,864,938 $ 5,427,646
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46 $ 13,152,797 $ 7,774,623 $ 5,378,174
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47 $ 13,017,440 $ 7,686,880 $ 5,330,559
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48 $ 12,886,281 $ 7,601,917 $ 5,284,364
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49 $ 12,759,108 $ 7,519,248 $ 5,239,860
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50 $ 12,635,722 $ 7,438,893 $ 5,196,829
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51 $ 12,515,937 $ 7,372,580 $ 5,143,358
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52 $ 12,399,582 $ 7,308,137 $ 5,091,444
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53 $ 12,286,493 $ 7,245,102 $ 5,041,391
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54 $ 12,176,521 $ 7,183,613 $ 4,992,908
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55 $ 12,069,525 $ 7,123,615 $ 4,945,910
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56 $ 11,965,372 $ 7,065,153 $ 4,900,218
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57 $ 11,863,937 $ 7,007,779 $ 4,856,158
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58 $ 11,765,104 $ 6,951,946 $ 4,813,158
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59 $ 11,668,763 $ 6,897,210 $ 4,771,553
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60 $ 11,574,810 $ 6,843,629 $ 4,731,182
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61 $ 11,483,149 $ 6,791,164 $ 4,691,985
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62 $ 11,393,686 $ 6,740,079 $ 4,653,607
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63 $ 11,306,335 $ 6,689,938 $ 4,616,396
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64 $ 11,221,013 $ 6,640,810 $ 4,580,203
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65 $ 11,137,644 $ 6,592,762 $ 4,544,881
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66 $ 11,056,152 $ 6,545,665 $ 4,510,487
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67 $ 10,976,469 $ 6,499,492 $ 4,476,977
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68 $ 10,898,528 $ 6,454,216 $ 4,444,312
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69 $ 10,822,267 $ 6,409,811 $ 4,412,455
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70 $ 10,747,624 $ 6,366,354 $ 4,381,270
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71 $ 10,674,545 $ 6,323,523 $ 4,351,022
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72 $ 10,602,974 $ 6,281,794 $ 4,321,180
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73 $ 10,532,861 $ 6,240,649 $ 4,292,212
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74 $ 10,464,155 $ 6,200,467 $ 4,263,689
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75 $ 10,396,812 $ 6,160,829 $ 4,235,982
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