Senate Monte Carlo Simulation - 2014
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAF
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Current odds based on latest Cook Senate Rankings,with Likely being given an 85% chance, and Lean 65%Margins and probabilities - Initial work done by Chris Bowers in 2010 on 2002 - 2010 data. Updated by Daniel Guild to include 1996 and 2000 dataLeadProbability of winning
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DemocratsRepublicans
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Current Senate544600.5
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Not up for re-election or safe34310.250.54
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Safe270.50.55Odds on Aug 1 - .26. Dem majority, .2055 tie, .53 GOP majority
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Safe and Not up3638740.750.61Odds on Aug 2 - .33. Dem majority, .21 tie, ..45 GOP majority
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Average Seats in the new Senate47.980652.019410.63
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Seats assumed safeRI, MAALA , SC 2, Idaho, OK, TN, TX1.50.68
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Chance of Democratic Majority0.002920.7
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Chance of tie0.06372.50.73
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Chance of GOP Majority0.933430.75
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3.50.85
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Number of Democratic SeatsNumber of resultsChance of result40.92
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4200.0000
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4200.00004.50.97
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4300.0000
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4400.0000
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4500.0000
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46720.0521
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473540.2562
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485650.4088
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492990.2164
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50880.0637
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5140.0029
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5200.0000
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5300.0000
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5400.0000Incumbent %
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5500.000012/16 update as PPP shows race tiedCook ChangedChanged to solid Rchanges 8/2 to tossup based on pollng
change to LD on PPP pollChanged to solidChanged to tossupChanged to LR 7/19 PPP poll 1.13 has race tiedUpgraded 7/18Changed 7/19
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5600.0000Cook RatingTossupToss UpToss UPSolid DTossupSolid DSolid DLean DSolid RTossupTossupSolid RTossupLikely DLikely RLean RSolid RLean DSolid DSolid DTossupLikely DSolid RLIkely DLean RSolid R
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5700.0000Cook PVI-14-1418-62081-12-13-12642-9-7-12164-35-100-13-22
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5800.0000DKOS
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2611111111111111111111111111
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Total1,382.00001.0000AlaskaArkansasColoradoDelawareGeorgiaHawaiiIllinoisIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMichiganMinnesotaMissMontanaNebraskaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOregonSouth DakotaVirginiaWest VirginiaWyoming
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Enter your projected probability that the Democrats will win the state. Enter in whole numbers. For example, if you think Democrat has a 65% of winning a state, enter 65. 300010020100100500025010010000010010010010010007500
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Total Simulations1382DemDemDemDemGOPDemDemDemGOPGOPDEMGOPDEMDEMGOPDemGOPDEMGOPDemDemDemDemDemDemGOP
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Sim #Total Dem Votes
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1214800010111000011000111110100
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1224800010111000011000111110100
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1234800010111000011000111110100
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1144700010110000011000111110100
45
1254800010110001011000111110100
46
1364910010111000011000111110100
47
1274810010111000011000111110000
48
1184700010110000011000111110100
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1394900010111001011000111110100
50
14105000011111001011000111110100
51
12114800010110001011000111110100
52
11124700010110000011000111110100
53
11134710010110000011000111110000
54
12144810010110000011000111110100
55
12154810010110000011000111110100
56
14165010011111000011000111110100
57
12174800011110000011000111110100
58
12184800010111001011000111110000
59
10194600010110000011000111110000
60
13204900010111001011000111110100
61
12214800010111000011000111110100
62
12224810010110000011000111110100
63
11234700010110000011000111110100
64
10244600010110000011000111110000
65
12254800010111000011000111110100
66
12264810010110000011000111110100
67
12274800011110001011000111110000
68
11284700010110000011000111110100
69
11294700010110000011000111110100
70
14305010010111001011000111110100
71
12314800010111000011000111110100
72
13324900010111001011000111110100
73
12334810010110000011000111110100
74
11344700011110000011000111110000
75
14355000011111001011000111110100
76
12364800010111000011000111110100
77
11374700010110000011000111110100
78
12384800010111000011000111110100
79
11394700010110000011000111110100
80
10404600010110000011000111110000
81
12414800011110000011000111110100
82
14425010010111001011000111110100
83
12434810010110000011000111110100
84
13444900010111001011000111110100
85
11454710010110000011000111110000
86
12464810010111000011000111110000
87
11474700010110000011000111110100
88
11484700011110000011000111110000
89
11494710010110000011000111110000
90
12504800010111000011000111110100
91
12514800010111000011000111110100
92
12524800011110000011000111110100
93
11534710010110000011000111110000
94
13544910010111000011000111110100
95
11554700010110000011000111110100
96
12564800010111000011000111110100
97
11574700010110000011000111110100
98
13584900010111001011000111110100
99
13594910011110000011000111110100
100
11604710010110000011000111110000
101
13614910010111001011000111110000
102
13624900011111000011000111110100
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Sheet1
Sheet3
Polls