TJ Merit Lottery Analysis

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	P
1	Metric	Asian	Black	Hispanic	White	Other	Total

2	Coalition for TJ Prediction for Total Number of Students that qualify to apply for "Merit Lottery"	2309	677	1205	3800	555	8546	Compare with 2017-2018 FOIA data release 2052 Students wiht GPA > 3.0 apply & 1825 Students with GPA > 3.5 apply
5	Coalition for TJ Prediction for Total Number of Students that qualify & get selected to apply for "Merit Lottery" *Provided everyone who qualifies applies	91	31	52	153	23	350.00
6	Coalition for TJ Prediction for Race Distribution of Students that qualify to apply "Merit Lottery" (%)	27%	8%	14%	44%	6%	100%
7	Race distribution of students in Grade 8 Across all FCPS middle schools	20%	11%	26%	37%	6%	100%
8	TJ Class of 2024 selected race Distribution (%) (current grade 9 batch)	73%	1%	3%	18%	5%	100%	Loudon and PWC + FCPS
9	TJ Class of 2024 selected race Distribution (current grade 9 batch)	249	6	16	62	17	350
10	TJ Class of 2024 applicants race Distribution (%)	56%	6%	8%	24%	6%	100%
11	FCPS Prediction for Race Distribution Using "Merit Lottery" (%) - for class of 2024	54%	7%	8%	25%	6%	100%
12	Change in Admitted Students to TJ	-158	25	36	91	6	0
13	% Change in Admitted Students to TJ	-63%	411%	225%	147%	33%
14	Number of Students who would have been selected in by merit, but will not get selected by the lottery.	245	3	10	60	17	336	336
15	Schools that will be Winners and Losers 2019 vs 2020
16	Winners and losers within the lottery system
17	Winner and losers by district
18									Two out of every five White graduates but less than one in five Black graduates achieved a GPA greater than 3.5.
19									In 2018, 89 percent of white students in Fairfax public schools and 92 percent of Asian students passed state math tests, according to data compiled by the committee. Meanwhile, 65 percent of Hispanic students and 69 percent of black students passed.
20	http://www.fcag.org/TJ%20Class%20of%202022%20detailed%20admissions%20date.xlsx								List of students that applied for TJ in 2018 - very rich FOIA data
21	https://www.fcps.edu/about-fcps/planning-future/maps
22	http://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108%3A8
23	https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/apex/f?p=180:1:2584383245848:SHOW_REPORT::::
24	http://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:8
25	https://public.tableau.com/views/8thGradeAlgebraParticipation/School?%3Adisplay_count=y&%3AshowVizHome=no
26
27	Assumptions:
28		Asian	Black	Hispanic	White	Other
29	Percent Applicants to TJ	55%	6.20%	7.60%	26.30%	5%
30	Pass SOL Math Test	92%	69%	65%	89%	79%
31	Qualified to apply (3.5 GPA + Pass math test)	46	13.8	13	35.6	31.5
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