Valence and Mesa optimization

	A	B	C	D	E
1		Prob	Conditional Prob	Description	Relevant Data
2	View theoretically correct	0.75	0.75	Current research on valence is broadly correct (i.e. imperativism and evaluativism capture aspects of a final CSA of valence)
3	View theoretically correct	0.6	0.8	Mesa-optimization is necessary for valence
4	View theoretically correct	0.33	0.33	A formalization of relevant aspects of nociception and imperativism (perhaps with some simple extensions) along with mesa-optimization are sufficient for valenced experience
5	View theoretically correct		0.2	All of the above
6
7	Empirically realized 2030	0.85	0.85	Large DNNs mesa-optimize by 2030
8	Empirically realized 2030	0.5	0.5	The formalization of nociception, imperativism etc. occur in DNNS by 2030	[2107.12808] Open-Ended Learning Leads to Generally Capable Agents (arxiv.org) https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.02779
9	Empirically realized 2030		0.425	All of the above
10
11	View correct and realized by 2030	0.2	0.2	view correct
12	View correct and realized by 2030	0.425	0.71	view empirically realized by 2030
13			0.14	Final estimate of how likely my view is to materialize
14
15	Other	0.15		Valenced experience in AI by 2030 conditional on my view being significantly off (i.e. allowing alternative functionalist theories and other theories of consciousness, but not panpsychist style theories/QRI's theory)	Date of First AGI [strong] \| Metaculus
16	Other	0.26		Valenced experience of any kind in AI by 2030
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