New Incentives prior calculation

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
1	Study	Location	Sample Size	Outcome	% weight on outcome	Increase in take-up for one vaccine (percentage points)	Notes
2	Sato & Fintan 2019	Nigeria	2482	Increase in take-up of one vaccine for women of childbearing age (incentive only given for one vaccine)	30%	25.8	The estimate used for the increase in uptake is the average of results for 300 naira and 800 naira incentive groups, which represents an amount similar to the smaller incentive level offered by New Incentives (500 naira)
3	Kusuma et al. 2017	Indonesia	4245	Increase in take-up of one vaccine for infants less than 12 months old (incentive given for five vaccines; this is averaged over the increase in each individual vaccine)	50%	9.4	The estimate used for the increase in take-up of one vaccine is the average of all 5 vaccines incentivized for children less than 12 months old, which is the same age range covered by New Incentives' program. Results were somewhat lower for vaccines received between 12 and 24 months of age. Both treatment and control groups received unconditional cash transfers. Only the treatment group received conditional cash transfers for immunization. We are unsure of the amount of the CCT for immunization.
4	Banerjee et al. 2010	India	1640	Increase in completion of full vaccination for infants	20%	21.0	Baseline rates of full immunization were very low at 1%, and transfers were in-kind (lentils and metal plates) rather than cash.
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6	Prior from most relevant literature					16.6	This prior is based on the 3 studies listed in column A. These are the most relevant studies (outside of the New Incentives study) that we have identified, based on factors such as location, baseline vaccination rates, target vaccinations, and incentive structures. More information is in GiveWell's literature review here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AQpXx4G9OaRgCAHbDsVirW-SkU8ZHq_18Z9EFKyYHWw/edit.
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8	Less relevant studies	Kenya, Zimbabwe, India, Latin America		Null and mixed results on vaccination uptake	5.00%	0	Some studies from contexts that seem less relevant to the New Incentives evaluation found no or small results of immunization incentives. However, we are uncertain about program mechanisms and decided to put a small amount of weight on these outcomes. Accordingly, we assigned 5% weight to a zero effect of CCTs on take-up of each vaccine.
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10	Prior for New Incentives					15.8
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