ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABAC
1
datecaseslog base 10Check: does
Use actual data as far as possible then extrapolate
slope historical
2
15 February 20201515 February 20201.176091259
model using minimal
25 March 20200.12540349
log base 2 cases
3
16 February 20201516 February 20201.176091259
original data fit known
26 March 20200.1249179328
4
17 February 20201517 February 20201.176091259data?28 March 20200.1232985879
5
18 February 20201518 February 20201.17609125931 March 20200.119332156
previous 10 days
6
19 February 20201519 February 20201.176091259actual: no fillno filltotalnewcount
fraction of total
7
20 February 20201520 February 20201.176091259calculated:blue orgreen fill15
8
21 February 20203521 February 20201.54406804421 February 20203520
9
22 February 20203522 February 20201.544068044
update range as data added
22 February 2020350
10
23 February 20203523 February 20201.544068044Model fitFinal Model23 February 2020350
11
24 February 20205324 February 20201.72427587r-squared24 February 20205318
12
25 February 20205725 February 20201.7558748560.98095145125 February 2020574
13
26 February 20206026 February 20201.77815125R26 February 2020603
14
27 February 20206027 February 20201.778151250.9904299324
Extrapolate from last known
27 February 2020600
15
28 February 20206328 February 20201.799340549Slope of log
Slope last 10 days
bold italics = estimated
28 February 2020633
extrapolate slope last 10 days
16
29 February 20206829 February 20201.8325089130.10748261770.04940972823
extrapolated day
29 February 2020685% increase6.22881869
17
01 March 20207501 March 20201.8750612631.87506126301.87506126301 March 20207576080%49%10%1 March 2020756.643856190.4150374993
18
02 March 202010002 March 202021.9825438811202 March 2020100256565%33%2 March 20201006.954196310.31034012060.7253776199
19
03 March 202012403 March 20202.0934216852.09002649922.09342168503 March 2020124248972%24%3 March 20201247.3037807480.34958443780.65992455841.074962058
20
04 March 202015804 March 20202.1986570872.19750911632.19865708704 March 20201583412378%27%4 March 20201587.7879025590.48412181120.8337062491.14404637
21
05 March 202022105 March 20202.3443922742.30499173442.34439227405 March 20202216316876%40%5 March 20202218.3174126140.52951005441.0136318661.363216303
22
06 March 202031906 March 20202.5037906832.41247435252.50379068306 March 20203199826282%44%6 March 20203198.7648715910.4474589770.97696903131.461090843
23
07 March 202043507 March 20202.6384892572.5199569762.63848925707 March 202043511637586%36%7 March 20204359.0794847840.31461319310.76207217011.291582224
24
08 March 202054108 March 20202.7331972652.62743958772.73319726508 March 202054110648189%24%8 March 20205419.4594316190.37994683480.69456002791.142019005
25
09 March 202070409 March 20202.8475726592.73492220582.84757265909 March 202070416364191%> 90% starts30%9 March 20207049.9571020420.49767042290.87761725771.192230451
26
10 March 202099410 March 20202.9973863842.84240482392.99738638410 March 202099429092693%41%10 March 202099410.345405250.38830320520.88597362811.265920463
27
11 March 2020130111 March 20203.1142772972.94988744103.11427729711 March 20201301307122694%31%11 March 2020130110.670656250.32525100240.71355420761.21122463
28
12 March 2020163012 March 20203.2121876043.057370058113.21218760412 March 20201630329153094%25%12 March 2020163011.092096410.42144016590.74669116831.134994373
29
13 March 2020218313 March 20203.3390537363.164852676123.33905373613 March 20202183553205994%34%13 March 2020218311.4361910.34409458050.76553474641.090785749
30
14 March 2020277114 March 20203.4426365263.272335293133.44263652614 March 20202771588261394%27%14 March 2020277111.820577880.38438688720.72848146771.149921634
31
15 March 2020361715 March 20203.5583485093.379817911143.55834850915 March 20203617846339694%31%15 March 2020361712.168672120.34809423550.73248112271.076575703
32
16 March 2020460416 March 20203.6631353153.487300529153.66313531516 March 20204604987428593%27%16 March 2020460412.634130370.4654582550.81355249041.197939378
33
17 March 2020635717 March 20203.8032522113.594783146163.80325221117 March 202063571753592293%38%17 March 2020635713.185649780.55151940491.016977661.365071895
34
18 March 2020931718 March 20203.9692760953.702265764173.96927609518 March 202093172960877694%47%18 March 202093172848871894%13.762589670.57693988761.1284592921.593917547
35
19 March 20201389819 March 20204.1429523073.809748382184.14295230719 March 20201389845811319495%49%19 March 20201389845301308595%14.254954780.49236511481.0693050021.620824407
36
20 March 20201955120 March 20204.2911689763.917231194.29116897620 March 20201955156531855795%41%20 March 20201955155941838995%14.575657420.32070263790.81306775271.39000764
37
21 March 20202441821 March 20204.3877100894.024713617204.38771008921 March 20202441848672311795%25%21 March 20202441848242290695%11015.046441950.47078452980.79148716771.283852282
38
22 March 20203384022 March 20204.5294303544.132196235214.52943035422 March 20203384094223221095%39%22 March 20203384093593186995%21.140.189033824415.431399660.38495771470.85574224451.176444882
39
23 March 20204418923 March 20204.6453141744.239678853224.64531417423 March 202044189103494200695%31%23 March 202044189101684148795%31.29960.378067648815.757546270.32614660930.7111043241.181888854
40
24 March 20205539824 March 20204.7434940864.34716147234.74349408624 March 202055398112095262795%25%24 March 202055398111225191395%41.4815440.567101473216.072321050.31477478150.64092139081.025879106
41
25 March 20206890525 March 20204.8382507374.454644088244.83825073725 March 202068905135076528895%24%25 March 202068905133556453195%51.688960160.756135297616.398392990.32607194070.64084672220.9669933315
42
26 March 20208637926 March 20204.9364081724.562126706254.93640817226 March 202086379174748177595%25%26 March 202086379172248077295%61.9254145820.94516912216.68300830.28461530110.61068724180.9254620233
43
27 March 202010521727 March 20205.0220859154.669609323265.02208591527 March 2020105217188389886094%22%27 March 2020105217186919771594%72.1949726241.13420294616.929119680.24611138590.5307266870.8567986278
44
28 March 202012478828 March 20205.0961728244.777091941275.09617282428 March 20201247881957111547193%19%28 March 20201247881945211431992%82.5022687911.32323677117.145494370.21637468720.46248607320.7471013743
45
29 March 202014498029 March 20205.1613080954.884574559285.16130809529 March 20201449802019213108290%16%29 March 20201449801991312970289%92.8525864221.51227059517.339528190.19403381680.4104085040.65651989
46
30 March 202016585130 March 20205.2197180944.992057176295.21971809430 March 20201658512087114630088%
based on slope last 10 days
14%30 March 20201658512035314446187%103.2519485211.7013044217.542684280.20315609410.39718991090.6135645981
47
31 March 202019093031 March 20205.2808741735.099539794305.28087417331 March 20201909302507916651287%15%31 March 20201909302507916471686%165,851113.7072213141.89033824417.713997260.17131298540.37446907940.5685028962
48
1 April 20202150031 April 20205.332444525.207022412315.3324445201 April 20202150032407318116384%13%01 April 20202150032407317943083%189,727124.2262322982.07937206817.901697750.1877004853
49
2 April 20202448772 April 20205.3889479965.314505029325.38894799602 April 20202448772987420068882%14%02 April 20202448772987419913681%215,003134.817904822.26840589318.080364740.1786669911
50
3 April 20202771613 April 20205.442732125.421987647335.4427321203 April 20202771613228422176380%13%03 April 20202771613228422029879%245,954145.4924114952.45743971718.248210190.167845448
51
4 April 20203113574 April 20205.4932586345.529470265345.4932586344 April 20203113573419624245278%12%04 April 20203113573419624113977%277,161156.2613491042.64647354118.36098850.1127783121
52
5 April 20203366735 April 20205.5272082895.636952883355.5272082895 April 20203366732531625029474%8%05 April 20203366732531624923174%317,060167.1379379782.83550736618.485436260.1244477605
53
6 April 20203670046 April 20205.5646707985.7444355365.5646707986 April 20203670043033126178771%9%06 April 20203670043033126087171%336,673178.1372492953.0245411918.610848230.1254119642
54
7 April 20204003357 April 20205.6024235615.851918118375.6024235617 April 20204003353333127554769%9%07 April 20204003353333127475069%385,140189.2764641973.213575015
55
5.959400736385.70990617818 April 2020512,751112,416367770.601472%5.65183328908 April 2020448,57348,238303075.164768%400,3351910.575169183.402608839
56
6.066883353395.81738879629 April 2020656,733143,982490881.934375%5.70124301709 April 2020502,62454,051336772.762967%457,9662012.055692873.591642663
57
6.174365971405.924871414310 April 2020841,146184,413650216.057777%5.75065274510 April 2020563,18760,563372257.160866%656,7332113.743489873.780676488
58
6.281848589416.032354031411 April 20201,077,343236,197862340.092580%5.80006247411 April 2020631,04867,861416045.114866%751,2752215.667578453.969710312
59
6.389331206426.139836649512 April 20201,379,865302,5221134988.15982%5.84947220212 April 2020707,08676,038462208.940465%1,077,3432317.861039444.158744137
60
6.496813824436.247319267613 April 20201,767,337387,4711490175.58284%5.8988819313 April 2020792,28685,200515124.905765%1,232,4352420.361584964.347777961
61
6.604296442446.354801885714 April 20202,263,611496,2751952254.46386%5.94829165814 April 2020887,75295,466576394.997965%1,767,3372523.212206854.536811785
62
6.711779059456.462284502815 April 20202,899,242635,6312562569.23288%5.99770138715 April 2020994,721106,969658048.22966%2,021,7582626.461915814.72584561
63
6.819261677466.56976712916 April 20203,713,361814,1183346356.55690%6.04711111516 April 20201,114,580119,858747575.663867%2,899,2422730.166584034.914879434
64
6.926744295476.6772497381017 April 20204,756,0861,042,7264,355,75192%6.09652084317 April 20201,248,880134,301848,54568%3,316,6112834.389905795.103913259
65
7.034226913486.7847323551118 April 20206,091,6141,335,5275,578,86392%6.14593057118 April 20201,399,364150,483950,79068%4,756,0862939.20449265.292947083
66
7.14170953496.8922149731219 April 20207,802,1621,710,5487,145,42992%6.195340319 April 20201,567,979168,6161,065,35568%5,440,7623044.693121565.481980907
67
7.249192148506.9996975911320 April 20209,993,0392,190,8779,151,89392%6.24475002820 April 20201,756,912188,9331,193,72568%7,802,1623150.950158585.671014732
68
7.356674766517.1071802081421 April 202012,799,1232,806,08411,721,78092%6.29415975621 April 20201,968,610211,6981,337,56268%9,993,0393258.083180785.860048556
69
7.464157383527.2146628261522 April 202016,393,1663,594,04315,013,30092%6.34356948422 April 20202,205,817237,2071,498,73168%11,431,6153366.214826096.04908238
70
7.571640001537.3221454441623 April 202020,996,4294,603,26419,229,09392%6.39297921223 April 20202,471,606265,7891,679,32068%16,393,1663475.484901756.238116205
71
7.679122619547.4296280611724 April 202026,892,3075,895,87824,628,69692%6.44238894124 April 20202,769,421297,8151,881,66968%18,753,0893586.052787996.427150029
72
7.786605236557.5371106791825 April 202034,443,7707,551,46331,544,52892%6.49179866925 April 20203,103,121333,7002,108,39968%21,452,7433698.100178316.616183854
73
7.894087854567.6445932971926 April 202044,115,7129,671,94340,402,35292%6.54120839726 April 20203,477,030373,9092,362,45068%24,541,03237111.83420336.805217678
74
8.001570472577.7520759152027 April 202056,503,57312,387,86151,747,48792%6.59061812527 April 20203,895,993418,9632,647,11268%28,073,90538127.49099176.994251502
75
32,115,36239145.33973067.183285327
76
36,738,61840165.68729297.372319151
77
42,027,42941188.88351397.561352976
78
42215.32720587.7503868
79
43245.47301467.939420624
80
44279.83923678.128454449
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