Groupon Valuations
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Date of valuationGrowth rate in revenuesTarget operating marginSales to Capital ratioInitial cost of capitalProbability of failureValue per sharePrice per shareAre you Buying?/Shorting?
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Gajanan Patil11/2/2011100% for 5yrs, 40% for next 2 yrs and 8% there on15%15.92No
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Aswath Damodaran11/2/201150%23%215%0%$14.62
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Sajanlal11/2/201145%23%215%0%$11.12No
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SR11/4/2011502021530%$11Short it like no tomorrow. This company has an unsustainable business model with low barriers to entry
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G Rubin11/2/201145% (due to an easy to replicate business model)23%20.15%$10.59Not traded yetNo - Note: the price per share is highly sensitive to changes in steady-state cost of capital. (and thus RoC). If Groupon stuggles and is slow to mature, they could face real problems in 7-10 years.
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Linda Zhu11/3/201150%23%218%20%10.15No, Corporate governance issue
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Jody11/2/201140%23%215%0%$10.03No, I don't trust them
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Realist11/2/2011Initially 200%, then 50%, 30%, 10%, 10%23%215%20%$5.01I'd rather own MF Global last Friday than Groupon in the long-term
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Andrea A.11/3/201140%15.5% (an average of the industries more related to groupon)215%10%4.5
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Loga11/3/201150%10% (being in the retail industry and aggressive competition do not think they can command high margins)218%33% (of the view that probability of failure is high due to high competition. the business model has already spawned several lookalikes and there seem to be no barrier to entry and little competitive edge)2.79not traded yetwould like to buy a long dated (3 year) put option.
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jp11/5/2011353521380%
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ritu40%27%313%30%
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Gabor18/12/201130%11%215%$1.95$23.04No
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