ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Next 12 Months
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Prob All LivingProb 1+ Dying
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All Parties12.2%87.8%
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Republican32.9%67.1%
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Democratic37.0%63.0%
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D Sen + R Gov67.8%32.2%
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R Sen + D Gov81.6%18.4%
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For any population of people, the probability of one-or-more dying is the inverse of the probability of all of them living. The Social Security mortality table gives us the probability of death, so we invert that, and then just multiply them all together for our population of interest to get the total probability of everyone remaining alive at the end of the 12 months. Then we invert that to get the opposite: the probability of one-or-more dying in the 12 month period.
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SS Actuarial Table
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
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Senators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_senators
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Governors
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors
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