ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAY
1
Modelled for an organisation that lobbies for PASTEUR to pass, assuming other countries also set up similar pulls for the antibiotics this develops, and also assuming there is infrastructure for new ABx pipeline after this
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InputsExpectedDescription
3
Charity costs
4
Fixed charity costs$100,000
Fixed costs of starting the charity. $100k set up costs assumed.
KEY:
5
Year reached scale3Estimated figure
6
At scale charity costs$800,000
Details in Section 9.1 of report
Calcaulted figure
7
Stopping point if charity is unsuccessful6
8
Charity years operating15
PASTEUR act to pass and length of act
9
10
Government costs
11
Cost for US government$1,000,000,000.00
Annual cost of the PASTEUR act
12
Cost for other countries$2,000,000,000.00
Cost of other countries also being involved in (i.e. piggy-backing) on PASTEUR
13
Time taken for law to pass and provisions come into force 5
14
Discount after10
15
Discount on government cost5%
Assumes that after 10 years, there is continual investment in new Abx, 5% reduction in per annum requirement due to having new Abx and good stewardship
16
17
Chance of success – Akhil's estimate
18
Time after provisions come into force for first Abx to be available
6
19
Total years for first benefit to be seen11
Time taken for law to pass + time for first Abx to be available
20
Discount rate4%
Discount rate for future costs and benefits.
21
Probability of success without new organisation7.50%
Base rate from a review of the last 5140 bills and resolutions before congress and how many have been signed into law – increased to account for chance happens in another country
22
Probability of success with new organisation20%
Based on limited data, it seems like advocacy can increase chance success by 10-15%
23
Total increased probability of success12.50%
24
25
Chance of success – Sam's estimate
26
Time after provisions come into force for first Abx to be available
6
27
Total years for first benefit to be seen11
Time taken for law to pass + time for first Abx to be available
28
Discount rate4%
Discount rate for future costs and benefits.
29
Probability of success without new organisation10.00%
Base rate from a review of the last 5140 bills and resolutions before congress and how many have been signed into law – increased to account for chance happens in another country
30
Probability of success with new organisation17.50%
Based on limited data, it seems like advocacy can increase chance success by 10-15%
31
Total increased probability of success7.50%
32
33
Benefits – Akhil's estimate
34
Total annual DALY burden AMR192,000,000.00
Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2022
35
Expected annual increase in DALY burden5%
Conservative estimate based on The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance
36
Years increase lasts26
Estimates suggesting ongoing increase of AMR burden made to 2050. If year 1 is 2024 then take a 26 year limit
37
Likelihood of developing new antibiotic with scheme80%
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Percentage of DALY burden averted with new antibiotics10%
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Percentage of people who will have access to new Abx60%
We used the proportion of universal health coverage for antibiotic access. More details in Section 9.1 of the full report
40
Total DALYs affected in year 19,216,000.00
41
42
Benefits – Sam's estimate
43
Total annual DALY burden AMR42,000,000.00
Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2022 – Note from Sam: I think it is more accurate to use the attributed death toll rather than the associated death toll
44
Expected annual increase in DALY burden5%
Conservative estimate based on The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance
45
Years increase lasts26
Estimates suggesting ongoing increase of AMR burden made to 2050. If year 1 is 2024 then take a 26 year limit
46
Percentage of DALY burden averted with new antibiotics50%
Split 50/50 between stewardship and new development
47
Number of antibiotics needed a year1.5AMR review
48
Cost to incentivise 1 antibiotic$3,000,000,000.00BCG report
49
Cost needed in 1 year$4,500,000,000.00
50
% of funding needed covered75%
51
Percentage of people who will have access to new Abx60%
We used the proportion of universal health coverage for antibiotic access. More details in Section 9.1 of the full report
52
Total DALYs affected in year 19,450,000.00
53
54
Aggregate impact
55
Expect DALYs affected in year 1933,300.00
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Calculations
58
Year1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950
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Charity costs$100,000$450,000$800,000$800,000$800,000$800,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$160,000$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0
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Government costs$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$300,000,000.00$285,000,000.00$270,750,000.00$257,212,500.00$244,351,875.00$232,134,281.25$220,527,567.19$209,501,188.83$199,026,129.39$189,074,822.92$179,621,081.77$170,640,027.68$162,108,026.30$154,002,624.98$146,302,493.73$138,987,369.05$132,038,000.60$125,436,100.57$119,164,295.54$113,206,080.76$107,545,776.72$102,168,487.89$97,060,063.49$92,207,060.32$87,596,707.30$83,216,871.94$79,056,028.34$75,103,226.92$71,348,065.58$67,780,662.30$64,391,629.18$61,172,047.72$58,113,445.34$55,207,773.07$52,447,384.42$49,825,015.20
61
DALYs affected0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.001,596,259.721,676,072.711,759,876.341,847,870.161,940,263.672,037,276.852,139,140.702,246,097.732,358,402.622,476,322.752,600,138.892,730,145.832,866,653.123,009,985.783,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.073,160,485.07
62
63
Outputs
64
Charity – Discounted costs$4,137,238
65
Government – discounted costs$3,684,302,036
66
Total (charity and government) – Discounted costs$3,688,439,274
67
68
Discounted DALYs affected33,385,891
69
70
71
Total DALYs affected (if campaign is successful)445,145,209
72
Total DALYs affected (expected)33,385,891
73
RatioLives saved
74
Cost/DALY (Charity costs)0.1237.007874024.58608049
75
Cost/DALY(Government and charity costs)110.484088.592311
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