COVID-19 pooled tests analysis
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Please read the accompanying aricle at:
http://articles.qos.ch/covid19-testing.html
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The present analysis builds on the yet unpublished work "Pooling Method for Accelerated Testing of COVID-19" by researches at Technion Israel.
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Optimal pool sizes as function of infection ratios:
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Discard frequency: that frequency at which pools would need to be discarded given a positive test result (i.e. not all negatives).
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The optimal pool size should be close to the estimated discard frequency.
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Infection ratesTest pool size
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One in everyInfection ratio163264128
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Discard frequency
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1000.016.7320923313.6361036352.1079101941.381695757
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2000.00512.975406576.7477229963.6438687872.111694323
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3000.00333333333319.223184279.8682683485.1974770882.875348573
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4000.002525.4720743812.991042786.7555285623.647746605
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10000.00162.9700787831.7370403516.122521838.319262186
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20000.0005125.469414262.9857073631.7448541416.12642773
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40000.00025250.4690821125.485041162.9935206731.74876054
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50000.0002312.9690157156.734907978.6182540139.56072714
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80000.000125500.468916250.484708125.49285462.99742708
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100000.0001625.4688828312.9846414156.742720778.6221604
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CountryPopulationConfirmed Cases as of 2020-03-18Ratio of cases to populationActual infections**Actual infection ratio
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Italy60480000350001728175000345.6
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Swizerland857000030002856.66666715000571.3333333
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South Korea5147000085656009.340339428251201.868068
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Israel871200043320120.0923821654024.018476
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USA327200000945834595.05181472906919.010362
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France6699000077308666.235446386501733.247089
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** "Actual" infection rate assumes 5 fold underestimation of confirmed results
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Given these tables above, USA and Israel could use pool sizes of 64, S. Korea and France 32, Italy and Swizerland 16.
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It should be noted that the discard rate for a given pool size can help estimate the true contamination rate in a country.
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