2004CountyTVMDatabase
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The 2000-2004 County Presidential True Vote Database Model
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This is an updated version of the original.
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These states are currently in the database.
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AZ CA CO FL GA IA IL IN MI NC NY NV OH OR PA TN WI
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The data source is:
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http://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/presidential-election/results/
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The objective of the model is to determine the most fraudulent counties in 2004. No model is perfect, but the County TVM provides a good estimate of election fraud as measured by vote share and vote count discrepancies in margin from the recorded vote.
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The database has been restructured. Filtering for a state is no longer required. An "Input" sheet has been added. The state code is entered in cell A2.
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The key stats are shown in the "Input" sheet. These include the state True Vote table and discrepancies between the True county vote margin and the recorded margin. Calculation details are displayed in the "Model" sheet.
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True Vote margins are calculated based on the returning voter method: The default option assumes that 2004 voters returned in the same proportion as the 2004 state exit poll shares.
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The user has the option of overriding the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares. A 98% living 2004 voter turnout rate is assumed as the default.
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Enter a 1 in cell A5 to calculate returning voters in the same proportion as the 2004 recorded vote shares. Obviously, discrepancies will be lower if the 2004 recorded vote is the basis for returning voters than if the unadjusted exit poll is used. Since the 2004 recorded vote was bogus, the best estimate of true discrepancy is obtained by using the unadjusted exit poll as a basis.
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The model automatically adjusts vote shares for states and counties based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit polls.
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The options are entered as follows:
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a) as an incremental change in Gore's returning voter percentage with an automatic corresponding negative change in Bush's percentage.
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b) as an incremental change in Kerry's share of new and returning voters with an automatic corresponding negative change in Bush's share.
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Kerry lost the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. He had 51.1% in the unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset with 13,660 respondents).
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The model indicates that the following counties were the most fraudulent.
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Wisconsin
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Votes: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan
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Margin: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan Washington
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Ohio
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Votes: Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Butler
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Margin: Butler Warren Clermont
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Florida
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Votes: Dade Broward Palm Beach
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Margin: Broward Palm Beach Volusia Polk
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New York
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Votes: Nassau Suffolk Brooklyn Queens
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Margin: Nassau Suffolk Staten Island Rockand
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Pennsylvania
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Votes: Allegheny Montgomery Bucks
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Margin: Northampton York Westmoreland
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Intro
Input
Model
Sheet31
TX
NM
National
AZ
CA
CO
FL
GA
IA
IL
IN
MI
NC
NY
NV
OH
OR
PA
TN
WI
MO
ExitPolls
User area