DATA Carbon Brief Attribution Database 2019 update
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO
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Role of human caused climate change
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Last update: 11 March 2019
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MMore severe or more likely to occur17868%
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L
Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur
2710%
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NNo discernible human influence2911%
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IInsufficient data/inconclusive2610%
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No. of events260
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No. of papers234
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WMO regionLocationEvent typeClassificationSummary statementCitationSourceLink
11
EuropeNorth side of the Alps to southern NorwayHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Global warming has made a warm autumn like the one observed in 2006 much more likely by shifting the temperature distribution to higher values."
Van Oldenborgh, G-J. et al., 2007: How unusual was autumn 2006 in Europe? Climate of the Past, 3, 659-668
Non-BAMShttp://www.clim-past.net/3/659/2007/cp-3-659-2007.html
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EuropeContinental EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%)9 that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude."
Stott, P. et al., 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610-614
Non-BAMShttps://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/full/nature03089.html
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AsiaRussiaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"For July temperature in Moscow, we estimate...an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming."
Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. 2011: Increase of extreme events in a warming world. PNAS, 108 (44), 17905.
Non-BAMShttp://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905.abstract
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A large part of the observed global‐scale trend in TN90 results from the trend in mean temperature, which has been attributed largely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increase. This suggests that the detected global‐scale trends in the number of warm nights are at least partly anthropogenic."
Morak, S. et al., 2011: Detectable regional changes in the number of warm nights. GRL, 38 (17)
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL048531
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcings alter the regional distributions, indicating that extremely warm days have become hotter."
Christidis, N. et al., 2011: The Role of Human Activity in the Recent Warming of Extremely Warm Daytime Temperatures. J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
NON-BAMShttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1
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AfricaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In the June‐August and September‐November seasons, many of the sub‐continental regions of Africa and Asia show robust attributable increase in the frequencies of anomalously warm seasonal temperatures."
Stott, P. et al., 2011: Single‐step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 12 (2), 220-227, DOI:10.1002/asl.315
NON-BAMShttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.315
17
AsiaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In the June‐August and September‐November seasons, many of the sub‐continental regions of Africa and Asia show robust attributable increase in the frequencies of anomalously warm seasonal temperatures."
Stott, P. et al., 2011: Single‐step attribution of increasing frequencies of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 12 (2), 220-227, DOI:10.1002/asl.315
NON-BAMShttps://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.315
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales."
Zwiers, F. et al., 2011: Anthropogenic Influence on Long Return Period Daily Temperature Extremes at Regional Scales, J. Climate, 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1
NON-BAMShttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1
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Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We detect the dominant influence of anthropogenic factors on observed warming in almost every region, which has led to a rapidly increasing risk of hot summers."
Jones, G. et al., 2007: Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02109, DOI:10.1029/2007JD008914
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD008914
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Comparing these observations with climate model simulations in an optimal detection analysis shows a significant human influence on patterns of change in extremely warm nights."
Christidis, N. et al., 2005: Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century, GRL, 32 (20), DOI:10.1029/2005GL023885
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005GL023885
21
AsiaRussiaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Here we use the results from a large ensemble simulation experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model to show that…the same event can be both mostly internally‐generated in terms of magnitude and mostly externally‐driven in terms of occurrence‐probability."
Otto, F. et al., 2012: Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L04702
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL050422/abstract
22
EuropeCentral EnglandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Therefore, a cold December of –0.7°C is half as likely to occur in the 2000s when compared to the 1960s."
Massey, N. et al., 2012: Have the odds of warm November temperatures and of cold December temperatures in central England changed? [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), 1057-1060
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1
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North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Central & eastern United StatesHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Our analyses of the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble suggest that the likelihood of extreme July temperature anomalies is greater in the current forcing than in the preindustrial forcing."
Diffenbaugh, N. & Scherer, M. 2013: Likelihood of july 2012 U.S. temperatures in preindustrial and current forcing regimes [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S6-S9.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
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North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Eastern United StatesHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The anthropogenic contribution to the extreme seasonal (MAM) warmth over the eastern United States can be estimated as about 35%, or in terms of risk, anthropogenic forcing leads to a factor of 12 increase in the risk of such an event according to our calculations."
Knutson, T et al., 2013: The extreme March–May 2012 warm anomaly over the eastern United States: global context and multimodel trend analysis [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S13-S17
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
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South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"It was very likely (>90% confidence) there was at least a 2.5 times increase in the odds of extreme heat due to human influences using simulations to 2005, and a fivefold increase in this risk using simulations for 2006–2020."
Lewis et al., 2013: Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), 3705-3709
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/abstract
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In more than half of the 10 cases considered here anthropogenic influence results in warm events being 3 times more likely and extreme events 5 times more likely during September 2011–August 2012."
Christidis, N. & Stott, P., 2013: Change in the Odds of Warm Years and Seasons Due to Anthropogenic Influence on the Climate. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1
NON-BAMShttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1
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GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings."
Min, S-K. et al., 2013: Multimodel Detection and Attribution of Extreme Temperature Changes. J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
NON-BAMShttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1
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South West PacificAustralia & far west PacificHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"CMIP5 simulations suggest that the extremely warm year observed over Australia and the far western Pacific during 2013 was largely attributable to human forcing of the climate system."
Knutson, T. et al., 2014: multimodel assessment of extreme annual-mean warm anomalies during 2013 over regions of australia and the western tropical pacific [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S34-S37.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change has caused a very large increase in the likelihood of extreme events such as the record Australia-wide average temperatures in September, spring, and the 2013 calendar year."
Lewis, L & Karoly, D., 2014:Tthe role of anthropogenic forcing in the record 2013 Australia-wide annual and spring temperatures [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S31-S34.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human activity has increased the risk of experiencing the hot Australian summer of 2012/13, as measured by simulated heat wave frequency and intensity, by two- and three-fold, respectively."
Perkins, S. et al., 2014: Increased simulated risk of the hot Australian summer of 2012/13 due to anthropogenic activity as measured by heat wave frequency and intensity [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S34-S37.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Record high September maximum temperatures over Australia arose from a combination of a strongly anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern, background warming, and dry and warm antecedent land-surface conditions."
Arblaster, J et al., 2014: Understanding Australia’s hottest September on record [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S37-S41.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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AsiaSouth Korea HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate model simulations indicates that extreme hot summer temperatures in Korea have become 10 times more likely due to human influence."
Min, S-K. et al., 2014: Assessing human contribution to the summer 2013 Korean heat wave [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S48-S51.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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AsiaJapanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change played a significant role in increasing the probability of events such as the heat wave in Japan in 2013."
Imada, Y. et al., 2014: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Japanese heat waves of 2013 [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S49-S52.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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AsiaChina 24°–33°N, 102.5°–122.5°EHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Comparison based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest a discernible impact of anthropogenic forcing, with internal variability also being important."
Zhou, T. et al., 2014: Understanding a hot summer in central eastern China: summer 2013 in context of multimodel trend analysis [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S54-S57.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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EuropeWestern EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcing played a substantial part in western Europe’s hot, dry summer in 2013. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were likely a factor in the large contrast with summer 2012."
Dong, B. et al., 2014: The 2013 hot, dry, summer in western Europe [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S62-S66.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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South West PacificEastern inland AustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record heat of 2013 across inland eastern Australia was caused by a combination of anthropogenic warming and extreme drought."
King, A. et al., 2014: Climate change turns Australia's 2013 big dry into a year of record-breaking heat [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S41-S45.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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AsiaEastern ChinaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s."
Sun et al., (2014) Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1082-1085
NON-BAMShttps://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2410
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North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Southwestern USHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"It was suggested that both the anthropogenic warming and an atmospheric circulation regime related to the natural variability of SST and SIC made the heat wave event more likely."
Shiogama et al., (2014) Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States JSTage:SOLA, 10,. 122-126
NON-BAMShttps://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/10/0/10_2014-025/_article
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Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In addition, direct influence of anthropogenic forcing also contributes to increasing the frequency since the late 20th century."
Kamae, Y. et al., 2014: Attributing the increase in Northern Hemisphere hot summers since the late 20th century. GRL, 41 (14), 5192-5199
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL061062
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South AmericaArgentinaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The Argentinian heat wave of December 2013 was likely caused in part by anthropogenic forcings. These forcings have increased the risk of such an event occurring by a factor of five."
Hannart, A. et al., 2015: Causal Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on the Argentinian Heat Wave of December 2013 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S41-S45.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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EuropeEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"According to CMIP5 models, the risk of record annual mean warmth in European, northeast Pacific, and northwest Atlantic regions—as occurred in 2014—has been greatly increased by anthropogenic climate change."
Kam, J. et al., 2015: Record Annual Mean Warmth Over Europe, the Northeast Pacific, and the Northwest Atlantic During 2014: Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S61-S65.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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AsiaSouth Korea HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate model simulations indicates that extreme hot summer temperatures in Korea have become 10 times more likely due to human influence."
Min, S. et al., 2015: Anthropogenic Influence on the 2014 Record-Hot Spring in Korea [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S95-S99.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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AsiaNorthern China 30°–55°N, 105°–135°EHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic forcing may have contributed to an 11-fold increase in the chance of the 2014 hot spring in northern China"
Song, L. et al., 2015: Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in 2014 Hot Spring in Northern China [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S111-S114
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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South West PacificBrisbaneHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Climate model simulations for 2014 indicate anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of hot and very hot November days in Brisbane by at least 25% and 44% respectively."
King, A. et al., 2015: Increased Likelihood of Brisbane, Australia, G20 Heat Event Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S141-144
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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South West PacificAdelaideHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in January 2014 by at least 16%. The influence for Melbourne is less clear."
Black, M. et al., 2015: The Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, Heat Waves of January 2014 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
46
South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record warm Australian spring of 2014 would likely not have occurred without increases in CO2 over the last 50 years working in concert with an upper-level wave train."
Hope, P. et al., 2015: Contributors to the Record High Temperatures Across Australia in Late Spring 2014 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S149-S153.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic activity has increased the risk of Australian heatwaves during late autumn similar to the 2014 event by up to 23-fold, compared to climate conditions under no anthropogenic influence."
Perkins, S. & Gibson, P., 2015: Increased Risk of the 2014 Australian May Heatwave Due to Anthropogenic Activity [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S154-S157.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
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EuropeCentral EnglandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold."
King et al., (2015) Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (5), 54002
NON-BAMShttp://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002
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North America, Central America & the Caribbean
TexasHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"The likelihood of a given unusually high summer temperature being exceeded was simulated to be about 10 times greater due to anthropogenic emissions."
Rupp et al., (2015) Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (7), 2392–2400
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062683/abstract
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Global temperatureGlobal temperatureHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times...About 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming."
Fischer & Knutti (2015) Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes. Nature Climate Change, 5, 560-564
NON-BAMShttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2617.html
51
GlobalGlobal temperatureHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame.
Kam, J. et al., 2016: Multimodel Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global and Regional Warmth During 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf
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AsiaSouthern India & Sri LankaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame."
Kam, J. et al., 2016: Multimodel Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global and Regional Warmth During 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf
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Europe
Central Europe, averaged over 4 sites: 52°06’N, 5°11’E; 50°55.5’N, 11°35’E; 53°52’N, 27°32’E; 48°14’N, 16°21’E
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Station-based observations and bias-corrected model simulations show that the frequency of short-term heat waves in central Europe has increased, albeit quantitative estimates of risk ratios differ considerably between methods."
Sippel, S. et al. 2016: The Role of Anthropogenic Warming in 2015 Central European Heat Waves [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S51-S56, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0150.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/11_central_europe_heat.pdf
54
EuropeCentral Europe 45°–55°N, 0°–35°EHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A heat wave swept across central Europe in summer 2015. Model experiments suggest that anthropogenic forcings were a major factor in setting the conditions for the development of the 2015 heat wave."
Dong. B. et al., 2016: The 2015 European Heat Wave [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S57-S62, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/12_europe_heat.pdf
55
AfricaEgyptHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"A combined modeling and observational assessment of the 2015 heat wave in Egypt found that human discomfort increased due to anthropogenic climate change."
Mitchell, D., 2016: Human Influences on Heat-Related Health Indicators During the 2015 Egyptian Heat Wave [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S70-S74, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0132.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/14_egypt_heat.pdf
56
AsiaIndia & PakistanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We find that the deadly heat waves in India and Pakistan in 2015 were exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Although the impacts of both events were severe, the events themselves were not connected to each other."
Wehner, M. et al., 2016: The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity in India and Pakistan in Summer 2015 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S81-S86, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0145.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/16_india_pakistain.pdf
57
AsiaN. W China, Xinjiang Autonomous RegionHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record-breaking heat over northwest China in July 2015 was linked directly to atmospheric general circulation indices and anthropogenic forcing. The latter increased the risk of extreme heat by three-fold."
Miao, C. et al., 2016: Record-Breaking Heat in Northwest China in July 2015: Analysis of the Severity and Underlying Causes [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S97-S101, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0142.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/19_nw_china.pdf
58
AsiaW. China, West of 105°EHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human influence has very likely increased the probability of occurrence of the 2015 western China extreme summer temperature events by at least 3-fold and 42-fold for the highest daily maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.
Sun, Y. et al., 2016: Human Influence on the 2015 Extreme High Temperature Events in Western China [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S102-S106, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0158.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/20_w_china_heat.pdf
59
AsiaJapanHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The persistent Japanese heat wave that occurred in early August 2015 was mainly attributed to intraseasonal disturbances including tropical cyclones. Anthropogenic warming contributed to an increase in the probability of occurrence.
Takahashi, C. et al., 2016: A Persistent Japanese Heat Wave in Early August 2015: Roles of Natural Variability and Human-Induced Warming [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S107-S112, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0157.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/21_japan_heat.pdf
60
South West PacificIndonesia 0°–11°S, 95°–141°EHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"El Niño and human-induced climate change have substantially increased the likelihood of rainfall deficits and high temperatures, respectively, in Indonesia such as those experienced in the drought conditions of July–October 2015."
King, A. et al., 2016: Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Indonesian Heat and Drought [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S113-S117, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0164.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/22_indonesia_heat.pdf
61
South West PacificS. AustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Anthropogenic climate change was found to have a substantial influence on southern Australia’s extreme heat in October 2015. The relative influence of El Niño conditions was less clear."
Black, M. & Karoly, D., 2016: Southern Australia’s Warmest October on Record: The Role of ENSO and Climate Change [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S118-S121, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/23_australian_s_heat.pdf
62
South West PacificAustraliaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Using a seasonal forecasting framework for attribution, we find that half of the record heat anomaly across Australia in October 2015 can be attributed to increasing CO2, with much of the rest due to internal atmospheric variability."
Hope, P. et al., 2016: What Caused the Record-Breaking Heat Across Australia in October 2015? [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S122-S126, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0142.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/24_australian_oct_ht.pdf
63
EuropeLondonHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris."
Mitchell, d. et al., 2016: Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 074006
NON-BAMShttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006
64
EuropeParisHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris."
Mitchell, d. et al., 2016: Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 074006
NON-BAMShttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006
65
EuropeEuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe...Each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe."
Uhe et al., 2016: Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (16), 8685–8693,
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069568/abstract
66
Global
Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and the Northern Hemisphere
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"A clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for all regions."
Dittus, A. & Karoly, D., 2017: A Multiregion Model Evaluation and Attribution Study of Historical Changes in the Area Affected by Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0164.1
NON-BAMShttps://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0164.1
67
EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The models indicate that anthropogenic forcings have influenced almost all indices in recent decades and led to more prominent changes in the frequency of extremes."
Christidis, N. & Stott, P., 2017: Attribution analyses of temperature extremes using a set of 16 indices. Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 24-35
NON-BAMShttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300640
68
GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed."
Knutson, T. & PLoshay, J., 2016: Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index. Climatic Change, 138 (1–2), 25–39
NON-BAMShttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1708-z
69
GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record‐breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record‐breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence."
King, A. et al., 2016: Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. GRL, 43 (7), 3438-3443 DOI:10.1002/2015GL067448
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL067448
70
GlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Results confirm previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results in which anthropogenic (ANT) signals are robustly detected in the increase in global mean and northern continental regional means of the four indices of extreme temperatures."
Kim, Y-H. et al., 2016: Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010. Clim. Dyn., 46 (5–6), 1769–1782
NON-BAMShttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2674-2
71
GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area."
Diffenbaugh, N. et al., 2017: Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. PNAS, 114 (19), 4881–4886
NON-BAMShttp://www.pnas.org/content/114/19/4881.abstract
72
EuropeSouthern EuropeHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change."
Wilcox, L. et al., 2017: Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change, Clim. Dyn. (50) 3537 doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7
NON-BAMShttps://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-017-3822-7#citeas
73
GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human‐induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record‐breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s."
King, A., 2017: Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences, Earth's Future, 5 (11) 1156-1168, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000611
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017EF000611
74
GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"We find that this sequence of record‐breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming."
Mann, M. et al., 2017: Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44 (15), 7936-7944, DOI:10.1002/2017GL074056
NON-BAMShttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL074056
75
EuropeEuro-Mediterranean, 8°–24°E, 36°–48°NHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"Across the Euro-Mediterranean the likelihood of a heat wave at least as hot as summer 2017 is now on the order of 10%. Anthropogenic climate change has increased the odds at least threefold since 1950."
Kew, S. et al., 2018: The Exceptional Summer Heat Wave in Southern Europe 2017 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0127.1BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch11_EEEof2017_Kew.pdf
76
AsiaSouth KoreaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Large-ensemble RCM and GCM simulations suggest a significant anthropogenic contribution to the observed warmest May and earliest summer onset in South Korea, increasing the risk of its occurrence by 2–3 times."
Min, S-K. et al., 2018: Anthropogenic Contribution to the 2017 Earliest Summer Onset in South Korea [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0096.1
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch15_EEEof2017_Min.pdf
77
Asia
Northeast China ( 80°–120°E and 40°–70°N)
HeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of 2017 northeast China persistent spring–summer hot and dry extremes by 5%–55% and 37%–113% respectively."
Wang, S. et al., 2018: Attribution of the Persistent Spring–Summer Hot and Dry Extremes over Northeast China in 2017 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0120.1
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch17_EEEof2017_Yuan.pdf
78
AsiaCentral eastern ChinaHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Heat waves in central eastern China like the record-breaking July 2017 event were rare in natural worlds but have now become approximately 1-in-5-yr events due to anthropogenic forcings."
Chen, Y. et al., 2018: Anthropogenic Warming Has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0087.1
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch18_EEEof2017_Chen.pdf
79
AsiaYangtze river basinHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"The occurrence probability of the record-breaking Yangtze River Delta heatwave in summer 2017 might be attributed to global warming (23%), the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high (32%), and the urban heat island effect (58%)."
Zhou, C. et al. 2018: Attribution of a Record-Breaking Heatwave Event in Summer 2017 over the Yangtze River Delta [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0134.1
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch19_EEEof2017_KWang.pdf
80
GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models."
Wehner, M. et al., 2018: Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble. Weather and Climate Extremes, 20, 1-8, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001
NON-BAMS
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094717301159?via%3Dihub
81
GlobalGlobalHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"According to CMIP5 simulations, the 2016 record global warmth was only possible due to substantial centennial-scale anthropogenic warming. Natural variability made a smaller contribution to the January–December 2016 annual-mean global temperature anomaly"
Knutson, T. et al., 2018: CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Record Global Warmth During 2016 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S11-S15, doi:10.1175/BAMS -D-17-0104.1.
BAMS
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1
82
ArcticArcticHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"According to CMIP5 simulations, the highly anomalous Arctic warmth during November–December 2016, as estimated in five observed datasets, most likely would not have been possible without anthropogenic forcing."
Kam, J. et al, 2018: CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Highly Anomalous Arctic Warmth During November–December 2016 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S34-S38, doi:I:10/1175/BAMS-D-17-0115.1.
BAMS
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1
83
EuropeFranceHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"December 2015 in France was an extreme of circulation and temperature. Both circulation and climate change partly explain the 4°C anomaly. We found no link between climate change and circulation."
Jézéquel, A. et al., 2018: Analysis of the Exceptionally Warm December 2015 in France Using Flow Analogues [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S76-S79, doi10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0103.1.
BAMS
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1
84
Asia10°S–90°N, 55°E–170°WHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The 2016 extreme warmth across Asia would not have been possible without climate change. The 2015/16 El Niño also contributed to regional warm extremes over Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent."
Imada, Y. et al. 2018: Climate Change Increased the Likelihood of the 2016 Heat Extremes in Asia [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S97-S101, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0109.1.
BAMS
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1
85
AsiaThailandHeatMore severe or more likely to occur
"The record temperature of April 2016 in Thailand would not have occurred without the influence of both anthropogenic forcings and El Niño, which also increased the likelihood of low rainfall."
Christidis, N. et al., 2018: The Hot and Dry April of 2016 in Thailand [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S97-S101, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0109.1.
BAMS
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2016.1
86
ArcticArcticHeatMore severe or more likely to occur"Results from the atmospheric model experiments are reconciled with coupled climate model simulations which lead to a conclusion that about 60% of the 2016 Arctic warmth was likely attributable to human-induced climate change."
Sun, L. et al., 2018: Drivers of 2016 record Arctic warmth assessed using climate simulations subjected to Factual and Counterfactual forcing. Weather and Climate Extremes, 19, 1-9, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.11.001
NON-BAMShttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094717301019
87
AsiaRussiaHeatNo discernible human influence"Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave."
Dole, R. et al., 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L06702
Non-BAMShttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/tao.zhang/2010GL046582.pdf
88
EuropeWestern EuropeHeatInsufficient data/inconclusive
"High interannual correlations between observed and analog temperatures confirm that the North Atlantic dynamics remains the main driver of European temperature variability, especially in wintertime."
Cattiaux, J. et al., 2012: Contribution of atmospheric circulation to remarkable European temperatures of 2011 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93 (7), 1054-1057.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1
89
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
Eastern United StatesHeatInsufficient data/inconclusive
"The contribution of potential changes in circulation to the recent long-term warming in the United States, therefore, requires further research."
Cattiaux, J. & Yiou, P. 2013: U.S. heat waves of spring and summer 2012 from the flow-analogue perspective [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S10-S13
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
90
South West PacificMelbourneHeatInsufficient data/inconclusive
"Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in January 2014 by at least 16%. The influence for Melbourne is less clear."
Black, M. et al., 2015: The Contribution of Anthropogenic Forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, Heat Waves of January 2014 [in “Explaining Extremes of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148.
BAMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1
91
92
EuropeUKSunshineMore severe or more likely to occur
"Extreme winter sunshine in the United Kingdom, as observed in the record high 2014/15 season, has become more than 1.5 times more likely to occur under the influence of anthropogenic forcings."
Christidis, N. et al., 2016: Human Contribution to the Record Sunshine of Winter 2014/15 in the United Kingdom [in “Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective”] Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S46-S50, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0143.1.
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/10_uk_sunshine.pdf
93
AsiaJapanSunshine
Decrease, less severe or less likely to occur
"The record low sunshine over Japan during August 2017 was mainly attributed to a blocking high and Pacific–Japan pattern. Anthropogenic warming and decaying El Niño contributed to an increase in the probability of occurrence."
Takahashi, C. et al., 2018: The Effects of Natural Variability and Climate Change on the Record Low Sunshine over Japan During August 2017 [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0107.1
BAMShttp://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2017a/ch14_EEEof2017_Takahashi.pdf
94
95
South AmericaSouth AmazonDroughtMore severe or more likely to occur
"It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region."
Shiogama, H. et al., 2013: An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model. Atmospheric Science Letters, 14 (3), 170-175
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.435/abstract
96
EuropeIberian PeninsulaDroughtMore severe or more likely to occur
"Overall these results agree with previous ones by Hoerling et al. (2012b), who found a tendency toward a drier Mediterranean for the period 1970–2010 in comparison with 1901–70, and that such a trend has been partially driven by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, although modulated by the NAO phase."
Trigo, R. M. et al., 2013: The record winter drought of 2011–12 in the Iberian peninsula [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S41-S45.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1
97
AfricaEast Africa DroughtMore severe or more likely to occur
"Human influence was found to increase the probability of long rains as dry as, or drier than, 2011"
Lott, F. et al., 2013: Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to human‐induced climate change? Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (6), 1177-1181
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50235/abstract
98
South West PacificNorth Island, New ZealandDroughtMore severe or more likely to occur
"There is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought."
Wang, S.Y. et al., (2014) Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014GL059748
NON-BAMShttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract
99
South West PacificAustraliaDroughtMore severe or more likely to occur
"Although climate models generally suggest that Australia’s Millennium Drought was mostly due to multidecadal variability, some late-twentieth-century changes in climate modes that influence regional rainfall are partially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse warming."
Cai, W. et al., (2014) Did Climate Change–Induced Rainfall Trends Contribute to the Australian Millennium Drought? Journal of Climate, 3145-3168
NON-BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1
100
North America, Central America & the Caribbean
CaliforniaDroughtMore severe or more likely to occur"California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013/14, and although global warming has very likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions, implications for extremely low precipitation in California remain uncertain."
Swain, D. et al., 2014: The extraordinary California drought of 2013/14: character, context, and the role of climate change [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S3-S7.
BAMShttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1
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