ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAK
1
Aggregated Crosstab Averages by Subgroup
Qualifying National Head-to-Head Polls (Apr 1-30, 2024)		Aggregated Crosstab Averages by Subgroup
Qualifying National 3+ Candidate Polls (Apr 1-30, 2024)
2
Demographic# of pollsEstimated combined n-sizeBidenTrumpAggregated Polling Lead (Apr 2024)2020 Avg:
Catalist/Pew/AP VoteCast		Shift from 2020 to Apr 2024 PollsCatalist 2020 EstimatesPew Validated Voter SurveyAP VoteCast2020 Exit PollsDemographic# of pollsEstimated combined n-sizeBidenTrumpRFK JrOtherAggregated Polling Lead (Apr 2024)
3
Total1218,77745%46%Trump +0.9Biden +4.5R+5.4Biden +4.5 (actual result)Total1014,07240%42%9%4%Trump +1.3
4
GenderMen125,79241%51%Trump +10.3Trump +4.3R+6.0Trump +6Trump +2Trump +5Trump +8GenderMen106,97537%47%9%4%Trump +9.7
5
Women125,79149%42%Biden +7.8Biden +12.3R+4.5Biden +14Biden +11Biden +12Biden +15Women107,10643%37%10%3%Biden +6.2
6
Race/EthnicityWhite117,48140%53%Trump +13.7Trump +12.0R+1.7Trump +12Trump +12Trump +12Trump +17Race/
Ethnicity		White75,78036%49%9%3%Trump +12.7
7
Black890175%15%Biden +60.3Biden +83.0R+22.7Biden +82Biden +84Biden +83Biden +75Black568365%14%8%4%Biden +51.4
8
Hispanic886852%40%Biden +11.3Biden +24.3R+13.0Biden +24Biden +21Biden +28Biden +33Hispanic571244%35%9%4%Biden +9.1
9
People of Color395852%35%Biden +17.3N/AN/ARace x EducWhite College41,48749%34%9%3%Biden +14.8
10
Race x EducWhite College71,74251%42%Biden +9Biden +12.5R+3.5Biden +10Biden +15Biden +3White Non-College41,69827%55%12%3%Trump +28.3
11
White Non-College72,01532%60%Trump +28.3Trump +29.0D+0.7Trump +26Trump +32Trump +35Age GroupAge 18-29481642%32%10%4%Biden +10.1
12
Age GroupAge 18-29574152%40%Biden +12Biden +24.3R+12.3Biden +24Biden +24Biden +25Biden +24Age 30-44387742%36%8%3%Biden +6.3
13
Age 30-44379947%40%Biden +6.7Biden +13.0R+6.3Biden +14Biden +12Trump +6Age 45-6431,16840%48%5%2%Trump +7.3
14
Age 45-6431,06842%50%Trump +8.3Trump +3.5R+4.8Trump +4Trump +3Trump +17Age 65+51,65242%43%8%2%Trump +1
15
Age 65+92,35246%47%Trump +1.4Trump +3.7D+2.3Trump +4Trump +4Trump +3Trump +5Age 18-34356632%34%16%8%Trump +2
16
Age 18-3451,00443%42%Biden +1.6N/AN/AParty IDDemocrat (including leaners)31,86879%5%7%6%Biden +73.3
17
Age 35-49379844%44%TieN/AN/ARepublican (including leaners)31,7513%84%8%1%Trump +81
18
Age 50-6451,16444%49%Trump +5.2Trump +6.0D+0.8Trump +6Democrat (excluding leaners)73,16481%5%7%3%Biden +76.1
19
Party IDDemocrat (excluding leaners)103,62089%7%Biden +81.7Biden +91.0R+9.3Biden +91Biden +89Republican (excluding leaners)72,7894%86%6%1%Trump +82.6
20
Republican (excluding leaners)103,3335%91%Trump +85.7Trump +89.0D+3.3Trump +89Trump +88Independent (including leaners)72,97032%36%15%6%Trump +4
21
Independent (including leaners)103,43240%45%Trump +5.1Biden +9.0R+14.1Biden +9Biden +13IdeologyLiberal31,11079%7%6%6%Biden +72.3
22
2020 VoteBiden Voters82,31489%5%Biden +83.3N/AN/AModerate31,47843%32%13%6%Biden +11
23
Trump Voters82,0613%93%Trump +90N/AN/AConservative31,3756%82%7%2%Trump +75.7
24
EducationHigh School or Less493439%51%Trump +11.6Trump +10.0R+1.6Trump +15Trump +52020 VoteBiden Voters42,68183%5%7%2%Biden +78.9
25
Some College358541%45%Trump +3.7Trump +1.5R+2.2Trump +1Trump +2Trump Voters42,4303%90%6%0%Trump +86.8
26
Bachelor's Degree355249%46%Biden +3.4Biden +14.0R+10.6Biden +14Biden +14Educ.Non-College Grad42,77134%47%11%2%Trump +13
27
Postgrad Degree333957%38%Biden +18.9Biden +27.5R+8.6Biden +35Biden +20College Graduate+42,09949%35%7%4%Biden +14
28
Non-College Grad73,32940%52%Trump +12Trump +6.0R+6.0Trump +4Trump +8<$50K41,80739%40%11%6%Trump +1.8
29
College Graduate+72,65154%38%Biden +16Biden +21.0R+5.0Biden +18Biden +24Biden +12
30
HH Income<$50K382943%42%Biden +1.3Biden +9.0R+7.7Biden +9
31
$50K+32,09445%47%Trump +2N/AN/A
32
Population DensityUrban488855%34%Biden +21.4Biden +36.7R+15.3Biden +44Biden +33Biden +33
33
Suburban41,44449%43%Biden +5.6Biden +9.7R+4.1Biden +8Biden +11Biden +10Biden +2
34
Rural51,03431%61%Trump +29.2Trump +32.3D+3.1Trump +34Trump +32Trump +31
35
36
Criteria for poll inclusion: (1) national RV or LV sample; (2) out of field date between Aor 1-30, 2024; (3) total sample size of n=600 or higher; (4) conducted by either non-partisan affiliated pollsters OR two partisan pollsters (one D-affliated, one R affiliated) collaborating; (5) 1.5 stars or higher in 2024 FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings (6) crosstabs must be publicly accessible and free of charge; and (7) pollster must have no known instances of methodological impropriety or intentional skewing of results (e.g. leading question wording)Criteria for poll inclusion: (1) national RV or LV sample; (2) out of field date between April 1-30, 2024; (3) total sample size of n=600 or higher; (4) conducted by either non-partisan affiliated pollsters OR two partisan pollsters (one D-affliated, one R affiliated) collaborating; (5) 1.5 stars or higher in 2024 FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings or I have personally reviewed their methodology (6) crosstabs must be publicly accessible and free of charge; and (7) pollster must have no known instances of methodological impropriety or intentional skewing of results (e.g. leading question wording)
37
38
Polls included (12): Daily Kos/Civiqs (2.5☆), Yahoo! News/YouGov (2.9☆), Emerson College (2.9☆), Quinnipiac University (2.8☆), Reuters/Ipsos (2.8☆), NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College (2.9☆), Pew Research (2.5☆), NBC News/POS/Hart (2.6☆), New York Times/Siena College (3.0☆), University of North Florida (2.8☆), CNN/SSRS (2.0☆), The Canadian Presser/Leger (2.0☆)Polls included (10): Redfield & Wilton (1.8☆), Quinnipiac University (2.8☆), The Economist/YouGov (2.9☆), Emerson College (2.9☆), NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College (2.9☆), UMass Lowell/YouGov (2.9☆), NBC News/POS/Hart (2.6☆), New York Times/Siena College (3.0☆), CNN/SSRS (2.0☆), The Canadian Presser/Leger (2.0☆)
39
40
Methodological Notes:
Methodological Notes:
41
Some sample sizes missing for Civiqs, Marist & Pew; subgroup sample sizes are estimated when only margin of error is provided
Subgroup sample sizes are estimated when only margin of error is provided
42
If a poll releases numbers for both RV & LV samples, only the LV numbers are included in the dataset
If a poll releases numbers for both RV & LV samples, only the LV numbers are included in the dataset
43
If a poll releases horse race numbers with and without leaners, only the leaner numbers are included in the dataset
If a poll releases horse race numbers with and without leaners, only the leaner numbers are included in the dataset
44
If a pollster or sponsor/pollster combo releases multiple polls in the same month, only the last one is included in the dataset
If a pollster or sponsor/pollster combo releases multiple polls in the same month, only the last one is included in dataset
45
If a pollster releases polls with different sponsors within the same month, they're included as separate entries in the dataset
If a pollster releases polls with different sponsors within the same month, they're included as separate entries in dataset
BidenTrumpBidenTrumpBidenTrumpBidenTrump
46
Minimum of 3 polls required for a demographic to be included in the above table
Minimum of 3 polls required for a demographic to be included
52%48%Biden +4.6
47
Minimum of n=50 sample size for crosstab data to be included in the dataset
Minimum of n=50 sample size for crosstab data to be included in the dataset
Men47%53%49%51%47%53%48%52%Trump +4.4
48
2 of the X polls only tested RFK Jr. as a minor party candidate (i.e. did not offer West or Stein as options)
Women57%43%56%44%56%44%56%44%Biden +12.5
49
Only named and announced candidates are included in the dataset (i.e. "someone else" is excluded)
White44%56%44%56%44%56%44%56%Trump +12.2
50
Aggregated Crosstab Averages by Subgroup
Qualifying National Head-to-Head Polls (Apr 1-30, 2024)
Two-Party Vote Comparison (i.e., undecideds/third party votes excluded for polls & 2020 estimates)		Black91%9%92%8%92%8%92%8%Biden +83.3
51
Demographic# of pollsEstimated combined n-sizeBidenTrumpAggregated Polling Lead (Apr 2024)2020 Avg:
Catalist/Pew/AP VoteCast		Shift from 2020 to Apr 2024 PollsHispanic62%38%61%39%64%36%62%38%Biden +24.7
52
Total1218,77749%51%Trump +1Biden +4.6R+5.6White College55%45%58%42%56%44%Biden +12.6
53
GenderMen125,79244%56%Trump +11.1Trump +4.4R+6.7White Non-College37%63%34%66%35%65%Trump +29.3
54
Women125,79154%46%Biden +8.5Biden +12.5R+4.0
55
Race/EthnicityWhite117,48143%57%Trump +14.8Trump +12.2R+2.6Age 18-34#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!
56
Black890183%17%Biden +66.8Biden +83.3R+16.5Age 35-49
57
Hispanic886856%44%Biden +12.2Biden +24.7R+12.5Age 50-6447%53%47%53%Trump +6
58
People of Color395860%40%Biden +19.8N/AN/AAge 65+48%52%48%52%48%52%48%52%Trump +3.7
59
Race x EducWhite College71,74255%45%Biden +9.7Biden +12.6R+2.9Age 18-2962%38%63%37%63%37%63%37%Biden +25.1
60
White Non-College72,01535%65%Trump +30.7Trump +29.3R+1.4Age 30-4457%43%56%44%57%43%Biden +13.1
61
Age GroupAge 18-29574156%44%Biden +13Biden +25.1R+12.1Age 45-6448%52%48%52%48%52%Trump +3.5
62
Age 30-44379954%46%Biden +7.6Biden +13.1R+5.5
63
Age 45-6431,06845%55%Trump +9Trump +3.5R+5.5
64
Age 65+92,35249%51%Trump +1.6Trump +3.7D+2.1<$50K55%45%55%45%Biden +9.1
65
Age 18-3451,00451%49%Biden +1.9N/AN/A$50K-$100K50%50%50%50%Tie
66
Age 35-49379850%50%TieN/AN/A
67
Age 50-6451,16447%53%Trump +5.6Trump +6D+0.4
68
Party IDDemocrat (excluding leaners)103,62093%7%Biden +85.5Biden +91.9R+6.4$100K+53%47%53%47%Biden +5.1
69
Republican (excluding leaners)103,3335%95%Trump +89.7Trump +89.9D+0.2Democrat (including leaners)96%4%96%4%96%4%Biden +91.9
70
Independent (including leaners)103,43247%53%Trump +6Biden +9.5R+15.5Republican (including leaners)6%94%8%92%7%93%Trump +85.8
71
2020 VoteBiden Voters82,31494%6%Biden +88.7N/AN/AIndependent (excluding leaners)58%42%58%42%Biden +16.9
72
Trump Voters82,0613%97%Trump +94.6N/AN/ADemocrat (excluding leaners)96%4%96%4%Biden +91.9
73
EducationHigh School or Less493444%56%Trump +12.9Trump +10.3R+2.6Republican (excluding leaners)5%95%5%95%Trump +89.9
74
Some College358548%52%Trump +4.2Trump +1.5R+2.7
75
Bachelor's Degree355252%48%Biden +3.6Biden +14.3R+10.7Independent (including leaners)55%45%55%45%Biden +9.5
76
Postgrad Degree333960%40%Biden +19.7Biden +27.9R+8.2LiberalTie
77
Non-College Grad73,32943%57%Trump +13.2Trump +6.1R+7.1Moderate63%37%63%37%Biden +26.5
78
College Graduate+72,65159%41%Biden +17.4Biden +21.2R+3.8ConservativeTie
79
HH Income<$50K382951%49%Biden +1.6Biden +9.1R+7.5Biden VotersTie
80
$50K+32,09449%51%Trump +2.2N/AN/ATrump VotersTie
81
Population DensityUrban488862%38%Biden +24.1Biden +36.9R+12.8High School or Less42%58%47%53%45%55%Trump +10.3
82
Suburban41,44453%47%Biden +6.1Biden +9.8R+3.7Some College49%51%49%51%49%51%Trump +1.5
83
Rural51,03434%66%Trump +31.8Trump +32.7D+0.9Bachelor's Degree57%43%57%43%57%43%Biden +14.3
84
Postgrad Degree68%32%60%40%64%36%Biden +27.9
85
Criteria for poll inclusion: (1) national RV or LV sample; (2) out of field date between Aor 1-30, 2024; (3) total sample size of n=600 or higher; (4) conducted by either non-partisan affiliated pollsters OR two partisan pollsters (one D-affliated, one R affiliated) collaborating; (5) 1.5 stars or higher in 2024 FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings (6) crosstabs must be publicly accessible and free of charge; and (7) pollster must have no known instances of methodological impropriety or intentional skewing of results (e.g. leading question wording)Non-College Grad48%52%46%54%47%53%Trump +6.1
86
College Graduate+59%41%62%38%61%39%Biden +21.2
87
Polls included (12): Daily Kos/Civiqs (2.5☆), Yahoo! News/YouGov (2.9☆), Emerson College (2.9☆), Quinnipiac University (2.8☆), Reuters/Ipsos (2.8☆), NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College (2.9☆), Pew Research (2.5☆), NBC News/POS/Hart (2.6☆), New York Times/Siena College (3.0☆), University of North Florida (2.8☆), CNN/SSRS (2.0☆), The Canadian Presser/Leger (2.0☆)Urban72%28%67%33%67%33%68%32%Biden +36.9
88
Suburban54%46%56%44%55%45%55%45%Biden +9.8
89
Methodological Notes:Rural33%67%34%66%34%66%34%66%Trump +32.7
90
Some sample sizes missing for Civiqs, Marist & Pew; subgroup sample sizes are estimated when only margin of error is provided
91
If a poll releases numbers for both RV & LV samples, only the LV numbers are included in the dataset
92
If a poll releases horse race numbers with and without leaners, only the leaner numbers are included in the dataset
93
If a pollster or sponsor/pollster combo releases multiple polls in the same month, only the last one is included in the dataset
94
If a pollster releases polls with different sponsors within the same month, they're included as separate entries in the dataset
95
Minimum of 3 polls required for a demographic to be included in the above table
96
Minimum of n=50 sample size for crosstab data to be included in the dataset
97
98
99
100